Nepal after the Regicide: Maoist Threat Increases

05 Jul, 2001    ·   516

Chandra B Khanduri perceives Maoist insurgency as the biggest emerging threat and pleads for a political solution to overcome it
Brig Chandra B Khanduri
This article is the continuation of Nepal under Maoist Threat written by Brig.C.B.Khanduri

 

  The Communists seized the opportunity provided by the Royal massacre to bring to the fore their deepening distrust of the present Government’s ability to handle Palace Security, run a smooth administration or even tell the public details of the Royal homicide. They also spread the ‘conspiracy theory’ about India as also about the new King and his son, Paras. They called the results of the inquiry a ‘white wash’, thus further enraging the people.

 

 

The events of the regicide clearly show that the real threat to Nepal now is Maoist insurgency apart from its fragile economy and the demographic shift that is swamping the Terai. Readers would recall that in 1996, when the Communists were defeated in Nepal , the military wing of the CPN (MUL) called the ‘Maoists,’ launched their so-called ‘Peoples War’ in Far-West Nepal. This region consists of 31 districts, 17 of which the Nepalese Government has identified as ‘Affected’ and the other 14 as ‘Very Affected.’ The ‘Very Affected’ includes nine districts of Achham, Baitadi, Bajura, Dandeldhura, Dharchula, Doti, Kailali and Kanchanpur.

 

 

The main problem of Nepal ’s development from Dharchula (West) to Taplejung (East) has been the bureaucratic cum monarchical control of the ‘Sing Durbar’ which Tony Hagen identities in his research as ‘centralization.’ The pace of development in Far-West’s 31 districts has been tardy and is lagging prominently in comparison to the Middle and Eastern districts in the field of partisan education, social reforms, poverty alleviation and road communication. While roads linking Baitadi-Dharchula, Achham-Bajura and Jumla-Surkhet are under construction now, the other areas are still dependent on foot mobility. In this area polygamy and a population growth rate of 5.5 children per woman, makes the woman a beast of burden. The literacy rate is 32 as compared to 45 in the East. Nearly two-thirds of the 2.1 million people are below poverty level. The only source of money for most is labour in the adjoining Kumaon region of India . The people of Far West rightly feel isolated and neglected.

 

 

The Maoist insurgency has also spread to the Terai and parts of Eastern Nepal . Their activities include raids on Police posts with a view to destroying them and seizing arms, ammunition, radio sets and to prove to the people and the Government their inadequacy to contain insurgency; to provoke retaliation against the people and looting of banks; holding cultural programmes and even distributing land certificates, to highlight the inefficiency of the administration besides imposing their own cult on the people. They have targeted Nepalgunj, Pyuthan, Raraodi, Jajrakot, Lamgunj, Gulmi, Dunai, Surkhet, Rukam, Baglung and so on. Their sole objective is to topple the government and to pressurize King Gyanendra to agree to negotiate with them to force the NC government out.

 

 

The various governments that have been in power since 1996 have devised a three-pronged strategy to contain, if not liquidate, the Maoist insurgency. First, an effort to unify the political parties has been made by appointing Sher Bahadur Deuba, a former Prime Minister, for going into the overall cause and consequence of the insurgency. Second, development of the area is being prioritized and efforts are afoot to reach the people. Third, CI Operations by the Police, the Special Police and the employment of the Army is also being considered. Overall, therefore, it is a strategy of Suppression of insurgency along with Reconciliation- a policy of carrot and stick. 

 

 

The Nepalese Government has taken several measures to improve the efficiency of the Special Police Force comprising about 35,000 personal. It has increased its strength by some 22,000. It is arming it with 7.62mm Galil assault rifles. The army has been instructed to train it in CI operations. The Police, including the Special Police are taking the brunt of the casualties for the past 4 years

 

 

In so far the employment of the RNA for CI operations is concerned, it is a ticklish problem and even the PM needs approval of the National Defence Council, the King (being the Supreme Commander), and consensus with the political parties. The Army itself insists that all parties should agree to their involvement. The RNA Chief quotes the 1998 situation when the ruling party employed a part of the RNA for CI, but soon the orders had to be rescinded for failure to get approval from NDC! GP Koirala, although earlier keen on the Army’s employment in CI, had to change his stance. He said; “I am not in favour of mobilization of the army…it is the ultimate weapon. If it fails, do we then call the Chinese or Indian armies?” So the CI remains confined to Police action.

 

 

In the final analysis, Nepal would have to find a political solution to the Maoist Insurgency. It is not improbable that the Communists who had a taste of ruling Nepal in 1995-96 (they fumble then) would hope to improve on their past failures. The effective use of RNA for CI would perhaps facilitate their seeking democratic means though the ballot rather than the bullet, as happened, for instance in Mizoram and even Tripura

 

 

 

 

 

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