Emerging Scenario in Nepal and Implications for Indo-Nepal Relations
27 Jun, 2001 · 512
Report of the IPCS Panel Discussion held on 22 June 2001
Panelists
Nepal , the Chairperson Mr. P. R. Chari highlighted the swift changes in
Nepal after the June 1 assassination of King Birendra and his family members. He looked at the royal tragedy from
India 's point of view and its security implications for
India , both in the short and long-term. He requested the speakers to consider how the new dispensation under King Gyanendra would approach
Nepal before the June 1 incident was also a tragedy. For at least three weeks before the incident,
Nepal was experiencing everyday bandhs, strikes and demonstrations. Life had come to a standstill with opposition parties demanding the Koirala government's resignation due to his alleged role in an aeroplane scam. Simultaneously, the students’ wing of the Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist-Leninist) had launched an anti-English agitation demanding the removal of English as a medium of instruction in school curriculums. The Maoist insurgents had attacked at least 4 police post in the previous month. The cumulative result was that trade and economic activities had come to a halt and tourism was in decline. To get out of this impasse, various options were being debated:
Nepal has been one of intrigues, affairs, and murders. No wonder people are not willing to buy the story that the massacre was an accident and not a deep-seated plot. Their experiments with the autocracy of Ranas, the absolute rule of the Shahs and nascent democracy having failed, they were seething with anger and frustration. People therefore saw the palace massacre as a conspiracy whereby Prince Gyanendra has usurped the throne.
Nepal politics. The RNA is seen as a staunch supporter of the monarchy since it takes its orders directly from the King. In the 1990 Constitution of
Nepal , Arts. 128 and 129 place the RNA under the command of the King who is responsible for its activities and 'may' take the advice of the Prime Minister.Using this power, the late King Birendra did not allow the government to use the Army against the Maoist insurgents on at least two occasions.
Nepal , there is no threat to Indo-Nepal relations. He suggested high level visits by Indian leaders and Indian assistance in counter-insurgency operations to build Indo-Nepal camaraderie.
Nepal politics.
Nepal returns to absolute monarchy,
India may not support the democrats openly. Its voice would be subdued, and this may also be true of other international reactions. Within
Nepal , however, it would be difficult for the new King to assume absolute powers for the following reasons:
India 's security, Ms. Thapliyal did not see any dangers. Democracy in
Nepal had not really helped
India , as it was often been in a dilemma about whom to consult. She agreed with Gen. Mehta that Gyanendra should not be seen as anti or pro-India.
India should not focus on personalities whilst dealing with
Nepal and treat the recent developments as an internal issue of
Nepal . Also,
India should engage
Nepal in a dialogue process and seek to resolve common security concerns.
India .
China has emerged, not only as a political competitor, but also as an economic competitor to India.The entire Nepalese market is flooded with Chinese goods. But, it would be wrong to conclude that the entire populace is nursing anti-
India feelings, which existed only in the urban areas. At the village level, there is no anti-India feeling. Infact, several lakh Gorkha soldiers, retired as well as those in service with the Indian Army, are a source of goodwill and camaraderie between
India and
Nepal . Each month
India provides Rs. 20 crores in remittances to
Nepal for the salaries and pensions of these soldiers. Thus, they are a stabilizing factor between
India and
Nepal .
Nepal due to the existence of a democratic regime. Democracy has meant freedom of expression, which has led to the mushrooming of vibrant newspapers. Vernacular newspapers have become very popular in addition to Nepal Radio and the External Division of the All India Radio.
India .
India 's foreign policy vis-a -vis
Nepal . It was lamented that
Nepal is not taken seriously in
India . Indeed, there is no clear-cut objective as far as its relations with
Nepal is concerned.
India must not treat
Nepal on sporadic but on sustained basis.
India should also avoid undue interference in
Nepal ; but should engage
Nepal to prevent anti-India activities.
India should also help
Nepal in counter-insurgency, not directly perhaps, but through help in intelligence gathering and weapons transfers. Moreover,
India should be willing to modify the 1950 Treaty without compromising its security. Lastly,
India must frame a long-term
Nepal policy guided by geographical and cultural factors and its overall security environment.
Amb. A. R. Deo.
Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Ashok Mehta.
Ms. Sangeeta Thapliyal
Initiating the discussion on the recent developments in
Gen. Ashok Mehta began by agreeing with Mr. Chari's comments that the entire episode was indeed a 'real tragedy' as it had not only eliminated the entire family of King Birendra but also cast a pall on the domestic politics in Nepal. But what had been happening to
1.Setting up of a national government.
2.A return to absolute monarchy.
3.Takeover by the Army.
4.The Maoists were sopporting the call for a national government but led by the Left parties.
In essence, there was a crisis with the government of the day seemed to having lost its legitimacy. The massacre could not have occurred at a worse time. It brought into light the deep schism between the royalist, the democratic and the communist forces. It also created a crisis of credibility for the monarchy. Gen. Mehta highlighted that the history of monarchy in
Gen. Mehta also focussed on the role of the Royal Nepal Army (R. N. A.) in
King Gyanendra has some immediate tasks to perform; that is to establish his legitimacy, maintain law and order, and ensure good governance. He needs Koirala and multi-party support for his own survival. He has the capacity to put pressure on the opposition in parliament to get on with its business. The biggest problem, however, before the new King is the Maoist insurgency. One of the 43 demands of the Maoists relates to abolition of the monarchy. The new King needs to evolve a politico-military consensus in this regard, apart from applying military pressure. Interestingly, the late King Birendra had deployed the Army in 5 Maoist insurgency affected districts, not to eliminate them, but to win their hearts and minds under a programme called Integrated Social Development Programme (I.S.D.P.).
Coming to the implications of these developments on Indo-Nepal relations, Gen. Mehta cautioned against an early conclusion. He brushed aside the question of King Gyanendra being either pro-China or pro-India as irrelevant. To him, as long as the monarchy and multi-party system exist in
The other speaker Ms.Sangeeta Thapliyal feared a return to absolute monarchy for many reasons:
1.Monarchy is the only stable element in
2.The royalists' financial support to the Maoists to destabilize the democrats and place them in a bad light.
3.Army support to the palace.
4.Bureaucracy's loyalty to the King.
Therefore, Ms. Thapliyal was of the view that if
1.It would lead to social instability. People have tasted freedom and the ethnic minorities have become more assertive under democracy. Absolute monarchy may lead to Hindu rule.
2.It would also cause political unrest. All political parties are likely to stand unitedly against the King.
3.It will enable the Maoists to emerge stronger.
4.Muslim forces would emerge stronger and create social tension.
Coming to the implications of the recent developments for
Discussion
The floor was then opened for discussion. The inresponses to several themes could be summarized as follows:
1. If the experiences of the last 10 years are any indication, it can safely be assumed that monarchy was better than democracy for
2. The RNA is a creation of the monarchy. Its true role is to ensure the security of the monarchy. It has no combat experience. The last time it took part in any war was during the 1857 revolt. However, it has been participating in UN missions. The RNA Generals insist that the Army should not be used used against their own people, hence the inreluctance to engage it against the Maoist insurgents. To deal with them, a separate interim police consisting of 35,000 men has been constituted.
3.
4. Media has become powerful in
5. King Gyanendra is widely perceived as assertive, capable, and dynamic and will be able to control the situation. He needs time to consolidate his position. One of the discussants feared that once in total control, Gyanendra would also raise, like his late brother, the Zone of Peace (ZOP) proposal with
6. It was agreed that the late King Birendra was playing a very dangerous game by promoting the Maoists against the democrats in general, and the Nepali Congress in particular.
7. Many policy suggestions emerged for
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