Myanmar: Contending hegemonies between India and China

12 Apr, 2001    ·   485

Satish Kumar and Abhishek Srivastava feel as India moves ahead with enlarging its economic and military relations its confrontation with China will become more pronounced in Myanmar
Abhishek Srivastava
Myanmar was shunned by India after its pro-democracy movement was crushed by the Army.  This was a blunder.  Indian wisdom now to deal with Myanmar has resulted from the increasing Chinese hegemony over Myanmar , which has forced Indian strategies to re-engage Myanmar .

 

 

Last month, Jaswant Singh's visit to Myanmar was an indication of this changed Indian policy.  India and China are pitted against each other as "strategic competitors" in Myanmar .  That is why they are jockeying for influence in Yangon .  Last year India 's Army Chief General Ved Prakash Malik, visited Myanmar twice.  Gen. Maung Aye, who ranks number two in Myanmar military and political establishment, visited India in November.  He also went to China .

 

 

The strategic location of Myanmar is related to India 's defence.  Myanmar adjoins our sensitive northern states and parts of Bangladesh .  It has an equally significant border with China .  Thus, the northern frontiers of Myanmar constitute a trijunction between Bangladesh , China and the eastern frontiers of India .  Myanmar also lies on the rim of the Bay of Bengal .  The south-eastern coast of Myanmar is close to the Nicobar and Andaman islands .  So, India 's security interests are at risk if Myanmar becomes a puppet of China .

 

 

India woke up late to engage the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) in Myanmar .  By that time China had taken full advantage of India 's disengagement to gain a considerable head start to woo Yangon 's military.  Since 1988, Myanmar has become China 's closest ally in South-east Asia and is a major recipient of Chinese hardware, it has become a potential springboard for projecting Chinese military power into the region.

 

 

Chinese interests in Myanmar can be explained on three counts.  First, China was desperately looking for a trading outlet to the Indian Ocean via Myanmar for its landlocked inland provinces of Yunnan and Sichuan .  Secondly, since Myanmar links South Asia and Southeast Asia, China knew that it could help China to extend its military reach into a region of vital importance to the Asian economies. Chinese motives also relate to safeguarding its new trade routes.  Thirdly, China wanted to check India 's growing strategic influence in Myanmar ; apart from establishing intelligence posts along the Bay of Bengal and in the Andaman Sea to monitor the movements of Indian naval forces.  Former-Defence Minister, George Fernandes, frequently accused China of helping Myanmar to install surveillance and communications equipment on the Coco Islands .

 

 

With India 's new initiative in Myanmar , China has speeded up its process of pouring in more arms and giving more economic help.  China 's trade with Myanmar is around $750 million whereas India 's trade with Myanmar is limited to $216.52 million.  China has an edge over India in establishing strategic, political and economic relations with Myanmar .  It has consolidated its position by including Pakistan against India .  Some training centres have been established in Pakistan to train the Burmese troops in using Chinese weapons.

 

 

Chinese policy is intended checkmate India 's influence in the coming years.  But, in the long-term, India can improve its position in Myanmar by taking concrete steps.  First, there is a rift between Army Chief Maung Aye and the head of Military Intelligence, Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt.  The latter is more pro-Chinese than the army chief.  So, India can take advantage of this rift by encouraging Maung Aye to take a more independent foreign policy stance.  Secondly, there is a conflict between illegal Chinese migrants who have entered northern Myanmar and taken control of business from the indigenous population.  India could use these tensions to highlight anti-Chinese feelings in the Myanmarese.  Thirdly, India should promote trade, build infrastructure and develop cordial relations with Myanmar at all levels. India should balance its support for the democratic movement with the reality that a military government would rule Myanmar in the foreseeable future.  They have never been inimical to India .

 

 

India is expanding its naval reach into the South China Sea .  The expanding navy presents a direct challenge to China .  India is moving to balance China and establish itself as a world power rather than remain a regional power.  China is likely to vigorously counter India 's expanding naval power.  For this, China will enlarge its bases in Myanmar .  As India moves ahead with enlarging its economic and military relations its confrontation with China will become more pronounced in Myanmar .

 

 

 

 

 

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