Environment, Energy and Development
27 Feb, 2001 · 469
Col PK Gautam says that we must prepare to face the inevitable climate change and plan to adjust our economic, industrial and agricultural practices
The 21st century is now witness to a new and emergent regional, national and international security issue – that of the environment. Though the environment is a recent discipline in mainstream security studies, it had always affected life on earth. Scientists remind us that after the big bang theory and creation of planet earth, there have been six extinctions starting 500 million years ago due to natural catastrophes. Now in the 21st century human kind is facing yet another catastrophe and that is global warming. Global warming is considered the most serious threat to the environment today. Other threats being ozone depletion and renewable resource scarcity like that of water, pollution cum degradation of land, air and sea.
Kyoto
Protocol
Shanghai
conference report of the Intergovernmental panel of Climate Change (IPCS) in January 2001 has established beyond doubt that it is the human influence which will lead to global warming by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years. 1 degree rise in temperature would destroy all coral reef. Global warming will trigger release of stored carbon from permafrost. Changed weather pattern and submergence of low coastal areas and many islands is not far off. This will effect and reduce food output.
Kyoto
in the climate negotiations it was agreed that the industrial countries would first cut down their emissions to below 5% of the 1990 level. This was to be achieved not before 2008-12 (Developing Countries like
India
and china are still exempt). Sadly, not even the first step of CO2 emission reduction has taken place by the industrial countries as yet.
India
The Hague
to operationalise the Kyoto Protocol failed due to the complex nature of the issues and the negative attitudes of the umbrella group led by
USA
. “Times out” had been asked for by the
USA
till the next round till July 2001 instead of May. It is no secret that the
USA
would expert the rapidly developing economics also to control emissions.
US
is going to compromise on its standard of living and reduce its energy use more specifically that of hydrocarbons. Here is the new source of conflict. Though the problem is environmental the response is economic.
Bangladesh
would migrate to
India
over the next couple of decades due to loss of arable land caused by sea rise due to global warming as a result of affluence of the West.
Global Warming and The
Some skeptics thought that the warming could be a natural phenomenon due to increased sun spot activity. This assessment was wrong. The recently released
The reasons for the global warming are many. Basically it is the excessive anthropogenic release of green house gases (GHG) into the atmosphere. The industrial countries have been the major culprits. The most important constituent is the excessive release of carbon di oxide (CO2) by burning of fossil fuel in industrial activity and transport sector. In 1997 at
Primary Energy Pattern in
To realise our goal of worth of the economy by 7-9%, we would need to increase out primary or commercial energy in the industrial, transport, agricultural and domestic sectors two to three times. Though relatively less polluting clean natural gas from our western or eastern neighbours may soon be imported , it will not be sufficient. We also can not depend exclusively only on oil which is 70% imported. Nor would the hydro electric, nuclear or non – conventional sources (which are in single digit percentage) contribute substantially. Our work horse or about 60% of energy is still going to be coal. We have limited coal, gas and oil reserves which may last 200 years. Our economy is also rural based and we have the largest cattle population in the world. The methane from rice fields or through rumination of our cattle technically is a GHG, but it can not be reduced. 40 percent of energy is in rural sector on biomass and crop residue.
Need for Scientific Home Work
The November 2000 negotiations at
Indian emissions are “survival” emissions and those of the industrialised world are “luxury” emissions. Even contrary scientific evidence in the West is being highlighted suggesting that the first target for mitigation should be methane, ozone and soot (due to coal burning) and not CO2. This will not be fair to developing country’s rural and poor population. It is unlikely that the
The poor will suffer the most. Waves of environmental refugees from
The Kyoto Protocol must get implemented first. At the same time we must innovate to use coal in a cleaner manner in a big way and diversify to increase contribution of renewable non polluting sources for energy. We also must prepare to face the inevitable climate change and plan to adjust our economic, industrial and agricultural practices. We should not be surprised as by an earthquake.
POPULAR COMMENTARIES
