Missile Technology Export Control Declaration by China: Reasons for Restraint

01 Dec, 2000    ·   441

Sonika Gupta argues that the Chinese declaration to impose strict export control measures on missile technology comes as a result of a mutually beneficial deal between the US and China
Sonika Gupta
China ’s pledge of imposing strict export control measures against missile proliferation has given hope to India that the China-Pakistan defence relationship may be weakening consequently, the strategic situation in South Asia may change to India ’s advantage. However, before lauding China on its declaration, one must analyse the reasons for this step by the Chinese. 

 

 

Though the declaration is a welcome step and would be instrumental in lessening tensions between India and China , this declaration is not a response to India ’s insistence that China stops the transfer of missile parts and technology to Pakistan . It is a result of sustained US dialogue with China . India ’s gain, if any, will be incidental.  However, this declaration does not imply an end to the China –Pak military and nuclear cooperation. 

 

 

The exchange between the US and China on the missile control issue highlights the multi -facted relationship which the two countries have established with an emphasis on mutually beneficial commercial deals.  The joint Sino-US programme for the space exploration underlies the Chinese decision to impose stricter controls on missile control. Richard Boucher, the Acting US Assistant Secretary of State, established a clear relationship between non-proliferation of missile technology and peaceful space exploration. Launching satellites is big business and has financial benefits for both the US and China . In addition, the US has also waived the earlier economic sanctions on China , imposed under US law for violating the MTCR. In contrast, the US has imposed further sanctions on Pakistan and Iran for receiving  missile technology. The US response once again emphasizes the position China occupies in US economic and political calculations. The punishment and reward approach adopted by the US in this case is a manifestation of the US intention to engage China and bring it within the political mainstream of a unipolar world.

 

 

China has criticised the US for imposing sanctions on Pakistan saying that Pakistan should not be punished for having a normal defence related relationship with it. China may  possibly be paying only lip service to its long-term friend, but the Chinese statement is an also indicative of Chinese intentions to not abandon Pakistan . Secondly, and more importantly, the Chinese declaration needs to be evaluated by India in the context of the present status of the Pakistani missile programme.  It is necessary to assess to what level the Chinese have let Pakistan develop its indigenous missile technology. 

 

 

China has, till now, managed the issue of missile technology transfer to Pakistan and China with staunch denials. To now declare that it will impose restrictions over the export of this technology, as well as dual use items, is an implicit admission of its earlier violations of the MTCR.  After this declaration, China is not likely to make a clandestine deal with either Pakistan or Iran . Had technology transfer to Iran or Pakistan been strategically important, China would not have made this statement in the first place, to later violate it.

 

 

It may be argued that China made the declaration to get the US to waive its economic sanctions.  However, the expanding commercial relationship between the US and China would have resulted in the US doing so sooner or later. Hence, missile export control has been negotiated by the two countries because they  wanted to expand their commercial relationship and want to appear responsible and reasonable to each other; China by not proliferating missile technology to  “states of concern” and the US by  appreciating the Chinese stand politically and rewarding it commercially.

 

 

As far as India is concerned, it would best serve India to concentrate on its border problems with China . China can build on this declaration by developing military to military CBMs with India ; they could  be further upgraded subsequently  to  include  the missile programmes of both the countries. 

 

 

 

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