Polls in the Proximity

11 Oct, 2000    ·   418

N. Manoharan analyses the prospects of Indo-Sri Lanka relations in the post-poll scenario in Sri Lanka

N Manoharan
N Manoharan
As Sri Lanka gears up for its parliamentary polls on October 10 many in India are interested in its outcome. What difference will it make? Why should New Delhi be concerned with the outcome? Certainly, a change of guard in the neighbourhood will have its impact on bilateral relations and overall regional cooperation in the region. The assumption of power by traditionally friendly parties next door is always welcome to any country. 

 

 

In Sri Lanka , the present ruling alliance headed by the SLFP has always been friendly to India . Its founder S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, when he was Prime Minister in the late 1950s shared the same worldview as his Indian counter-part, Jawaharlal Nehru. Both worked together to bring the Nonaligned Movement into reality. He was not suspicious about Indian intentions. The two leaders also believed in Fabian socialist ideology. After Bandaranike’s assassination, his wife, Sirimavo Bandaranaike, continued the policy of his husband of maintaining cordial relations with India . In the 1970s the friendship enjoyed by Sirimavo and Indira Gandhi reflected in the easy relations between the two countries. India extended military assistance to the Sirimavo government when it was threatened by the JVP insurrection in 1971. Historic agreements on plantation Tamils and Katchchativu were also reached. At the same time, Sirimavo nurtured the Chinese connection to balance India in the region, gave transit facilities to Pakistan during the 1971 Indo-Pak war and proposed converting the Indian Ocean into a Zone of Peace to contain India . But these were tactical exceptions rather than strategic deviations. To prove this, when the SLFP came to power in 1994, Chandrika Kumaratunga acknowledged a “special relationship” with India and assigned for New Delhi an important role for the resolution of the island’s ethnic relations.

 

 

On the other hand, Indo-Lankan relations have been normally at low ebb during the UNP regimes. The first UNP government under D.S. Senanayake saw India to be a threat to its security. This was the main reason for Senanayake’s policy not to accept independence unless there was a security guarantee from the British. The post-independence regime also disfranchised plantation Tamils through Acts treating them as a “fourth column” of India . In contrast to a Non-aligned policy, the UNP leaders took the island much closer to the West. Dudley Senanayake reached many agreements with China to contain Indian “influence” in the Indian Ocean . During Premadasa’s rule, India faced the humiliation of IPKF withdrawal. He went to the extent of conniving with the LTTE to “drive out” the Indian force, which had gone to restore tranquility in the island.

 

 

In the light of this background many in India hoped for an SLFP-led PA victory. Its triumph will see a continuity in the cordiality in Indo-Lankan relations; the PA government will also help to end the long-drawn out ethnic crisis, due to which India is affected. This does not mean that an UNP-led government is unwelcome to India . Ranil Wickremasinghe is an India-friendly leader, who, as leader of the Opposition, has visited India several times and, in fact, called for Indian intervention to resolve the ethnic crisis. However, his alleged “links” with the LTTE has not helped to end the strife. Additionally, though competent, his leadership is too weak to be influenced by the Sinhalese hard-liners, both within and outside the UNP. 

 

 

For the ‘Third force’—JVP—its unique selling point is anti-Indianism. One cannot forget the way the JVP used Indo-phobic sentiments to garner support for its insurrection in 1971 and again in 1988-89. Even today, despite its transformation into a political party, the USP follows the same ideology of minority and India-bashing. Its leanings are fully towards Sinhala nationalism and, in turn, opposed to any type of concessions to minorities in Sri Lanka or good relations with neighbouring India . Hence it would be difficult for India to have cordial relations with Sri Lanka in case the JVP forms the government.

 

 

Nevertheless, the point needs to be emphasised is whichever party comes to power India ’s major desire is that the island should enjoy political stability, economic prosperity and societal tranquility. That is, the party, which will avoid constitutional deadlock, sustain economic development and bring an end to the ethnic crisis, should form next government in the island state as India ’s strength lies in the stability of its neighbours.

 

 

 

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