Intelligence: The Case of China
25 Sep, 2000 · 417
Dr Bhashyam Kasturi stresses upon the need for a focussed policy on China that is based on consideration of India’s national interests
There is much intelligence activity in
India regarding
Pakistan , and concern over
China . But there is little comprehension of the intelligence challenge which
China presents to
India .
China is a strategic and economic competitor to
India . Second, its strategic alliance with
Pakistan makes the transfer of nuclear and missile material a danger to Indian security. Both these facts should make
India appreciate that Defence Minister, George Fernandes, is not wrong when he designated
China as
India 's "potential enemy number one."
China , with technical and human resources being devoted to it. Language and area specialists in the Research and Analysis Wing, MEA,
Institute of
Chinese Studies and major universities around
India invest considerable time and money on
China . The IDSA has more than five scholars with expertise on
China . The problem appears to be that in government there is some difficulty in calling a spade a spade.
Pakistan with
Beijing every time there was a discussion. The standard response was "No there is no missile proliferation." And we leave it at that. The second issue is boundary delimitation. Given the fact of the 1962, debacle the government finds it difficult proceed with this task.
China is in no hurry to find an agreement. Suggestions can be made, of course, that modern satellite technology gives both countries the means to delimit and verify the boundary in the mighty
Himalayas .
China is looking for. The basic issues are clear enough.
China wants to be a global player. It will not brook any interference from
India .
China seeks partnership with
Pakistan to isolate
India and keep the
US in suspense.
China exports missiles and nuclear materials to other nations for profit and geo-political reasons.
China seeks entry into the
Indian Ocean which explains its links with
Myanmar .
China only understands the language of force. Recall exercise Checker board in the 80s which led to Sino-Indian tensions.
India needs to rework its deployment of troops on the LAC vis-à-vis
China . Since Indian troops are at a geographical disadvantage.
China can by constructing dams, stop inflows into
India or let excess water flow into
India in an unregulated manner. Recently, the army wrote to the government that flooding in Arunachal Pradesh may have been caused by a dam burst in
China .
India about
China 's trading practices, particularly with the
US .
China has an important defence industry. Open source knowledge about the industry is available. What about inside knowledge?
China 's decision-making process are worth looking at in the context of
India 's national security.
India does in terms of its nuclear weapons and doctrine,
China will respond.
China is to set out the basic parameters of
India 's national interests and its defence policy. That it what
China understands. Additionally, it is important not to force issues but to calibrate one's position in the light of changing geo-political realities. This has to be the government agenda, with the aim of developing postures at the level of the National Security Council.
China used to be an enigma. Today's it is a growing power with economic and military strength. Both are designed to achieve super power status for
China . With the Indian capability to read Chinese signals it is time
New Delhi acquires the ability to read its intentions also.
Two facts stand out.
In intelligence circles consequently, there is considerable emphasis on
Officials will tell you that they raised the issue of missile proliferation to
The key here lies to understanding what
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· A major future problem could be water.
· Trade relations are important. Not enough intelligence is gathered by
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· Whatever
The key to understanding
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