North Korea: “An All-Out Confrontation” After Fresh UNSC Sanctions?
28 Jan, 2013 · 3802
Rajaram Panda assesses China's changing strategy towards North Korea in light of the recent sanctions
On 22 January 2013, the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2087 (voted unanimously), condemned North Korea for its rocket launch in December 2012. The new resolution saw the rocket launch as a violation of earlier sanctions imposed by the UN in 2006 (Resolution 1718) and strengthened in 2009 (Resolution 1874). How has North Korea responded? And what path is it likely to take hereafter?
The resolution ratcheted up existing sanctions on North Korea after it used ballistic missile technology to launch the multistage Unha-3 rocket, which carried a 200-pound surveillance satellite into orbit on 12 December 2012. The debris of the rocket fell into the sea off the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea and waters near the Philippines.
The resolution ratcheted up existing sanctions on North Korea after it used ballistic missile technology to launch the multistage Unha-3 rocket, which carried a 200-pound surveillance satellite into orbit on 12 December 2012. The debris of the rocket fell into the sea off the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea and waters near the Philippines.
Is China’s Strategy towards North Korea Changing?
The most noticeable development arising from the UN resolution is that China, a longtime ally of North Korea, went against it by voting in favour of the UN resolution, claiming that the Security Council needed to pass a cautious resolution, as that was the only way to ensure regional tensions do not escalate further. This demonstrated that Beijing was concerned that North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are destabilising the region, but was willing to go only so far to punish its economically struggling neighbour. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang commented that Resolution 2087 delivers some positive information, including calling for a peaceful resolution to the Korean peninsula issue through dialogue and negotiations as well as the resumption of six-party talks.
Like other countries, China too regretted North Korea’s satellite launch amid the universal concern of the international community. China has turned growingly unhappy with the launch and urged restraint from its neighbour but still rejects tougher sanctions which it sees as counterproductive and something that would likely press Pyongyang to escalate tensions and accelerate its ballistic program. Therefore, China wanted UN Security Council’s reaction to be prudent and moderate.
The most noticeable development arising from the UN resolution is that China, a longtime ally of North Korea, went against it by voting in favour of the UN resolution, claiming that the Security Council needed to pass a cautious resolution, as that was the only way to ensure regional tensions do not escalate further. This demonstrated that Beijing was concerned that North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are destabilising the region, but was willing to go only so far to punish its economically struggling neighbour. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang commented that Resolution 2087 delivers some positive information, including calling for a peaceful resolution to the Korean peninsula issue through dialogue and negotiations as well as the resumption of six-party talks.
Like other countries, China too regretted North Korea’s satellite launch amid the universal concern of the international community. China has turned growingly unhappy with the launch and urged restraint from its neighbour but still rejects tougher sanctions which it sees as counterproductive and something that would likely press Pyongyang to escalate tensions and accelerate its ballistic program. Therefore, China wanted UN Security Council’s reaction to be prudent and moderate.
The main reason for China’s support to North Korea is because Beijing fears a collapse of the North Korean regime, which could send a massive flow of desperate, starving refugees into northeastern China and lead to a pro-US government setting up across its border. Chinese firms could lose their leading position in North Korea, while South Korean investment in China would be diverted to help rebuild the devastated North’s economy. It transpires that China wants a stable, peaceful Northeast Asia and does not want the North to provoke retaliation from the South Korea, Japan or the US. China calls for the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, though Beijing’s leaders are seen as resigned to the North possessing some sort of atomic weapons.
Both the US and China worked closely on drafting the resolution as they were to get the resolution passed before South Korea takes over the monthly rotating presidency of the Security Council in February. The US wanted to add new sanctions but China rejected them. Yet, the Obama administration characterised the vote as a tough response to North Korea flagrant violation of its obligations under previous resolutions. The resolution added four organisations and six individuals to an existing blacklist, including the North Korean space agency, the Korean Committee for Space Technology. It also threatened more measures for any new launches.
The significance of the resolution was that it was passed in a 15-to-0 vote that included China, a longtime economic benefactor and protector of North Korea. However, the measures included in the resolution will most likely have day-to-day effect. But the important message sent out to Pyongyang is that it has a choice to go forward with its weapons programs or with an economic opening.
"An all-out confrontation”: The Response from North Korea
North Korea has rejected any effort to resume the six-party talks aimed at ending its nuclear weapons program. The foreign ministry said in a statement that Pyongyang, “will take measures to boost and strengthen its (our) defensive military power including nuclear deterrence”. North Korea’s National Defence Commission said that its nuclear weapons program was no longer negotiable and indicated its plan to carry out a third nuclear test and more rocket launches aimed at its “arch enemy” to retaliate against the resolution. The statement titled, “Enter all-out confrontation to safeguard the sovereignty of the nation and people,” gave no indication of when the test might be carried out, or explain the meaning of ‘high-level”.
North Korea has rejected any effort to resume the six-party talks aimed at ending its nuclear weapons program. The foreign ministry said in a statement that Pyongyang, “will take measures to boost and strengthen its (our) defensive military power including nuclear deterrence”. North Korea’s National Defence Commission said that its nuclear weapons program was no longer negotiable and indicated its plan to carry out a third nuclear test and more rocket launches aimed at its “arch enemy” to retaliate against the resolution. The statement titled, “Enter all-out confrontation to safeguard the sovereignty of the nation and people,” gave no indication of when the test might be carried out, or explain the meaning of ‘high-level”.
According to South Korean intelligence source, Pyongyang had finished technical preparations and could conduct an atomic test within days of a decision by leader Kim Jong-un. In December 2012, a US think tank reached a similar conclusion based on satellite photo, suggesting that North Korea had repaired rain damage at its nuclear site and could conduct a detonation in two weeks’ time.
Though China had sought to shield North Korea from harsher sanctions and appealed for restraint and diplomatic efforts to avoid a dangerous escalation of tensions, the latest resolution demonstrates that Beijing’s patience is not infinite, and that a third nuclear test could even provoke Chinese anger. It also indicates that China’s influence over North Korea is actually limited. Only a threat of economic action by China might have a real impact.
Though China had sought to shield North Korea from harsher sanctions and appealed for restraint and diplomatic efforts to avoid a dangerous escalation of tensions, the latest resolution demonstrates that Beijing’s patience is not infinite, and that a third nuclear test could even provoke Chinese anger. It also indicates that China’s influence over North Korea is actually limited. Only a threat of economic action by China might have a real impact.
Under the circumstances, Northeast Asia appears to be drifting towards a new security crisis and unless handled properly and diplomatically, the region may see developments whose repercussions remains unpredictable.
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