Pakistan has gone through a chain of unsettling events in the last one year, namely:

1.                   The Kargil misadventure in mid-1999 when the Indian Army turned the tide resulting in Pakistan’s tactical surprise ending in a strategic reverse.

2.                   Pakistan Army’s military coup in October 1999 resulting in a democratically elected government, with an overwhelming mandate, being overthrown by General Pervez  Musharraf.

3.                   China, the most trusted patron of Pakistan, not helping it during the Kargil crisis.

4.                   United States ending its special relationship with Pakistan of over 50 years during President Clinton’s visit to South Asia in March 2000.

Pakistan is now confronted with India’s new fast moving strategic initiatives which seem to befuddle its ruling and foreign policy makers.

India’s New Strategic Initiatives

Coincidentally with Pakistan’s unsettling developments, both external and domestic, India has moved significantly ahead in the foreign policy area. In recognition of its emerging power, several nations which had imposed sanctions after Pokharan II are now willing to respond to India’s strategic initiatives.  In the last year the following developments have taken place.

·                     United States - India dialogues encompassing wide strategic dimensions.

·                     Japan-India comprehensive security dialogues.

·                     France-India dialogues for defence cooperation and ministerial visits.

·                     Australian Foreign Minister’s security related visit to New Delhi.

·                     Turkish Prime Minister’s visit to India, bypassing Pakistan

·                     Israel – India increasing defence co-operation.

Impact on Pakistan

The significance of these developments has not been lost on Pakistan’s strategic analysts and scholars who are involved in debating the subject.  However, they seem to lack coherent options. This arises from a negative approach to the Indian developments. This negative thought process suggest that:

1.                   India’s market potential is drawing away Pakistan’s suitors.

2.                   India has embarked on a strategy to seek support for its candidature to be a Permanent Member of the Security Council.

3.                   Permanent membership of the Security Council would allow India to veto any UN resolutions on Kashmir.

Pakistan, therefore, should do its best to thwart India’s membership of the UN Security Council.

Possible Pakistani Reactions

These negative conclusions reached by Pakistan could prompt its actions to portray India’s unsuitability for UN Security Council membership :

·                     Intensify proxy war in Kashmir to provoke India into retaliatory actions and highlight India’s threat to South Asian peace.

·                     Relentless offers of Indo-Pak dialogue and peace talks hoping that India’s non-acceptance would help the Pak cause.

·                     Prevail on China to oppose India’s candidature, which it has so far done.

·                     Alternatively, prevail on China that it makes its support conditional on India not having veto powers.

·                     Play the Israel card against India in the Islamic countries.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s reactions to India’s new strategic initiatives are not unexpected. They are in line with its past patterns of behavior.  China, for politico-strategic reasons, can be expected to support the Pakistani line as it has no other option in South Asia to confine India with this region. But India needs to note that the success of its new strategic initiatives with US, Japan, and France arise, not only from India’s power and economic potential, but a recognition that after long wasted years promoting nonalignment, India is willing to shift its foreign policy to incorporate new strategic alignments.