Much emphasis has been put on the Afghan-led and Afghan-owned solution; but with the 2014 deadline approaching; will there be a stable Afghan government that would be able to stand on its own by 2015? Perhaps, instead of looking for alternatives and Plan Bs, there is a need to find complimentary strategies that would assist the Afghan-owned, Afghan-led solution. In this case, a region-owned and region-led strategy would augment an indigenous initiative, which is already in place.

Two issues warrant a region-led, region-owned solution for stability in Afghanistan. First and foremost, the existing approach is unlikely to result in a stable Afghanistan by 2014. If the Afghans have to hold the key to their own future as Karzai thundered rhetorically at an international summit, there should be an effective Parliament, independent judiciary, clearly identified institutions with separation of powers, and most importantly, a confident and well-trained Afghan National Army and Afghan Police.

None of the above is likely to happen by 2014. The Afghan Parliament would remain weak; in fact, given the problems associated with electoral reforms and voters’ registry, the election process and the formation of next Parliament before 2014 would itself be a new source of instability. The institutions are in clash mode, with more powers with the President undermining the Parliament and independent judiciary. In fact, Karzai has been ruling Afghanistan through decrees, under the facade of a Parliament.

An unstable Afghanistan is not a new phenomenon. It has happened in the past; in fact, Afghanistan has remained unstable for the most part of its history. However, an unstable Afghanistan per se does not pose a huge threat to regional or international security. Had it not been for the al Qaeda's super imposition in Afghanistan, the rest of the international community would have been willing to live with the Taliban, however uncomfortable it had been.

This is why the region-led and region-owned approach towards Afghanistan makes better sense, if the country is likely to remain unstable as explained above.

Pakistan, Iran and India need to agree to work together and keep away from engaging in any Regional Great Game in Afghanistan, as had happened before British India and the Russian empire, and later between the US and the Soviet Union. If these three countries, along with China and other Central Asian republics agree to not support any non-State actor, or make Afghan territory their own backyard, Afghanistan would not become a regional graveyard. It would still remain unstable with infighting between the multiple groups but none of them would be able to walk over the rest, post 2014, as the Taliban did in the 1990s with Pakistan's active support.

An unstable Afghanistan, without becoming a theater for a regional Great Game would insulate the instability. Though it would make life tough for an ordinary Afghan, the multiple ethnic communities and numerous Afghan militias and warlords would be able to find an unstable and ugly peace within. It would be a negative approach, but perhaps better amongst a set of bad options.

Second, as a positive approach, a region-led and region-owned initiative is extremely important to make Afghanistan self-sufficient. There is an international fatigue setting in; despite the bravado in Chicago and Tokyo summits, the international community's economic aid and funding support to Afghanistan is likely to decline. Given the Afghan reluctance for economic reforms and good governance, international donors are unlikely to keep funding a State where there is rampant and systemic corruption, with no signs of stability.

In that situation, it is important that Afghanistan remains economically self-sufficient. A region-led and region-owned approach would do exactly that. Historically, Kabul, Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif have been part of multiple silk routes, and Afghanistan remains the biggest bridge between four regions - Central Asia, West Asia, China and South Asia. If the regions are willing to come together, then Afghanistan would become the natural core for the Asian Highway, since trade routes and pipelines would intersect here. It would then become a natural transit for the above four regions; for buses, trucks, trains and pipelines. In return, its economy would become self-sufficient.

But, the most important question remains - can there be a region-led and region-owned approach in Afghanistan? Can the stakeholders be brought together?

Let there be more initiatives and summits to find out what could bring the region together. It is time to look beyond Bonn, Tokyo and Istanbul. Perhaps there should be summits in Delhi, Islamabad, Tehran, Dushanbe and Almaty, bringing the regional stakeholders into the picture.

Finally, the region-owned and region-led solution for Afghanistan should not be an alternative strategy, but a supplementary to existing initiatives.