Japan: Emerging Security Challenges

23 Jun, 2000    ·   367

Subhash Kapila analyses the new security challenges facing Japan in the light of China’s growing military might and changed Sino-US dynamics
Subhash Kapila
Japan was encouraged to shed its martial inclinations and move towards a Western oriented society during US military occupation period after 1945. The Korean War brought the realisation to the United States that Japan , along with South Korea , needed to be built up militarily to withstand aggressive designs by China and Russia . The Japanese armed forces were revived under the nomenclature of Self-Defence Forces. Constitutional restraints, however, were in-built to preclude their offensive use. With the intensification of the Cold war, the Japanese military forces were integrated into the US security architecture in the Western Pacific. Japanese security requirements, including a nuclear umbrella, were met by the United States under its obligations under the US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty. 

 

 

Japan ’s threat perceptions during the Cold War were centered on the erstwhile USSR for two reasons. Firstly, this was the perception of USA and its allies, and Japan ’s alliance obligations necessitated it. Secondly, for reasons that were Japan specific; there was a territorial dispute the USSR over the Northern Islands , which were occupied by the Russians in the closing stages of World War II. The other Japan-specific threat perception was that, in any future conflict, the Russian navy operating out of Cam Ranh base in Vietnam could throttle the Japanese sea lanes. Fears about China did exist but were not articulated during the 1970’s and 1980’s. Since USA had guaranteed Japan ’s security and territorial integrity, the Japanese were assured that China could be restrained by USA . Japan had a territorial dispute with China pertaining to the islands south of Okinawa , as also on the extent of the Exclusive Economic Zone.

 

 

In the post-Cold War era, while the Russian threat to the Far East has significantly reduced, Russia continued to figure as a security concern, primarily because of the Northern Islands controversy. In the 1990’s China ’s emergence as a strong military power in Japan ’s vicinity was worrisome since the USA was not willing to share Japanese threat perceptions regarding China in a bid to capture Chinese markets.

 

 

In fact some US officials made indiscreet remarks that US priority would be to ensure that Japanese latent military power remains capped and not worry China .

 

 

At the turn of the millennium the security environment in the Asia-Pacific has radically changed, especially in the Western-Pacific. The following strategic developments are likely to affect Japanese threat perceptions and present challenges to its policy markers: 

 

 

1. China ’s emergence as the prominent military power in the Western Pacific, replacing Russia , whose economic problems have eroded its military capabilities in the Far East .

 

2. China ’s ambitious bid to challenge US military dominance in this century.

 

3. Growing China-Russia military ties and convergence of strategic interests. Both aim to keep USA in a restrained mode in the Pacific.

 

4. Nuclear weapons and IRBM capability and potential of North Korea , built with direct Chinese assistance. An economically failing North Korea would not have achieved this on its own.

 

5. Instability in the ASEAN region due to political divisiveness, ethnic problems, and Islam fundamentalism. This effects the security of the Japanese sea lanes.

 

6. US domestic pressures to scale down its military presence in Japan and South Korea , and make these countries shoulder greater financial burdens for their own defence.

 

The Japanese public has an aversion to increased defence spending and shouldering greater security responsibility. To meet their increasing security challenges, Japan needs to exercise a combination of the following options.

 

 

·   Upgrading of Japan ’s military capabilities to meet two major eventualities. One, a potential direct military threat from China . Two, the contingency of withdrawal of US military presence in the Pacific; this is unlikely, for the present.

 

·   Amend the Japanese Constitution to remove restraints on Japan playing a more assertive role in the security of the region.

 

·   Re-education of the Japanese public to accept increased defence expenditure and enhance its operational capabilities.

 

·   Consider nuclear option, however painful and distasteful for historical reasons. 

 

·   In the interim, create a conventional missile capability with medium range missiles.

 

Japan would be ill-advised to view its security concerns and challenges on its own, or as its own. Regional security challenges can best be met politically by a process of strategic dialogue with countries other than its own traditional security partners. Comprehensive security dialogues are the answer for restraining any country with aggressive potential.

 

 

Japan is at a defining moment in regard to its security policies. The entire Japanese ethos towards security needs to be reinvented to accept the emerging challenges. Since national interests are never static, Japan ’s national security policies need to be re-cast to adapt to the changing geopolitical and geo-strategic architecture in the Asia Pacific.

 

 

 

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