India’s ambitions in Myanmar: A Chinese Perspective

04 Jun, 2012    ·   3629

Peng Nian reflects on Manmohan Singh’s recent visit to Myanmar


On 29 May, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ended its three-day visit to Myanmar, after meeting the democratic movement leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. It was understood that the two countries signed 12 agreements covering national security, border areas development, trade and investment agreements, transportation and other aspects of cooperation. Singh’s visit attracted significant interest, especially at a time when Myanmar’s political reform process continues to accelerate, and its relations with Western countries continue to improve. Against this backdrop, there are three observations worth noting: the consultations on the issue of border security, Singh meeting Aung San Suu Kyi publicly, and India’s emphasis on the need to exert ‘soft power’ in Myanmar.

India's Northeastern region (NER) is an important channel at the forefront of India's Look East policy (LEP), and it is therefore essential to ensure stability in the region. However, the frequent armed anti-government activities in the region have impeded the effective implementation of the LEP. During the visit, Singh expressed that India needed Myanmar’s coordination to combat the anti-government armed forces that have fled to Myanmar from the Northeast. However, Myanmar may not be fully cooperative with India. The conflicts between Myanmar government troops and domestic ethnic armies continue, making it was difficult to focus on combating India's anti-government armed groups.

For the consideration of economic and strategic interests, India was very cautious in establishing contact with Myanmar’s pro-democracy activists, so as not to arouse the suspicion of the Government of Myanmar. Since the Government of Myanmar initiated the move to accelerate the process of political reform at the end of 2011, India began to strengthen its contact with Myanmar’s pro-democracy activists, hoping to not miss the opportunity to expand its influence in Myanmar as the pro-democracy activists re-board the political arena.

Singh's visit showed that India would adjust the ‘two-track policy’. India would strengthen ties with the Myanmar pro-democracy activists actively and publicly, demonstrating India’s belief that the future of Myanmar is democracy.In this visit, India said that it would help to establish the Myanmar Institute of Technology, and a Centre for Agricultural Research in an agricultural college in Naypyidaw. The two sides also reached a consensus on many aspects of air services and cultural exchange cooperation. This shows that India is interested in using soft power to strengthen its influence in Myanmar. Through the rapid development of cultural exchanges between India and Myanmar in recent years, and India’s increasing emphasis on soft power, India is attempting to use its unique culture, democracy and soft power to expand its influence in Myanmar, which will be the core idea of India's Myanmar policy.

Although India-Myanmar relations continue to improve in recent years, and Singh's visit further demonstrates India’s urgent desire to further strengthen relations, there were several insurmountable obstacles that had to be overcome. First, there was a deep-seated anti-Indian sentiment in Myanmar. Although India actively tried to engage with Myanmar, India’s double-dealing policy not only failed to win the trust of the Myanmarese government, but also that of Myanmarese activists. Second, due to sanctions imposed by Western countries, Myanmar's national sentiment grew rapidly. Third, Myanmar was interested in trying to use India to balance the big country in the district, but India lacked the capacity to provide strategic resources to Myanmar. Finally, the recent political reforms in Myanmar have been given the thumbs up of the West, which may reduce India’s role in Myanmar.

India has always maintained close contact with pro-democracy activists in Myanmar, which the Myanmarese government has been extremely sensitive of. Although political reforms have begun to be implemented, it does not imply that the Government of Myanmar is ready to fully open the doors to the pro-democracy activists.

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