Water has emerged as a source of increasing competition and tension among different nations. In this context, China’s construction of dam and diversion projects over the Brahmaputra created tensions along the lower riparian countries like India and Bangladesh. India has expressed its serious concerns over China’s projects on the Brahmaputra. Tarun Gogoi, the Chief Minister of Assam, stated that China’s attempt to divert waters of the Brahmaputra River would bring about an environmental disaster and that it would have a negative impact on the economy of the state (The Sunday Express, 16 October 2011). But this tension was been softened last month when the Chinese declared that they were not intending to divert the Brahmaputra. What factors could have resulted in China changing its mind on the project?

Due to the topography of the plateau, the construction of dams and highly technical roadways and railways are prone to environmental disasters like earthquakes and land degradations. These projects especially the one on the Brahmaputra would have polluted the river and thereby led to many environmental and geological risks in India, Bangladesh, and China as well. The recent experiences of disastrous earthquakes in 2008 and 2009 could have led China to question the feasibility of the diversion of the Brahmaputra. The earthquake in Sichuan, which killed hundreds, can also be linked to the ecological damage that such projects have on the environment.

If the diversion and damming of Brahmaputra River were to take place, the worst affected country would have been India, which is the immediate lower riparian state. This would have been further complicated by the lack of a water sharing treaty between China and India. Significantly, China and India are the two fastest growing economies in the world, and their trade relations have increased significantly in recent years. Chinese efforts to divert the water resources of the Brahmaputra River could have worsened the relationship between the two countries, which has been marked with tension since the 1962 Sino-Indian War. China has also stopped issuing stapled visas to the residents of Kashmir this year. Therefore, this move could be seen as an effort by China to not hamper its relations with India.

Tibet is one of the most important factors for the cancellation of this diversion project. Brahmaputra originates from China’s Qinghai Tibet Plateau. The Tibetan Plateau happens to be the largest water tank in the world. All the ten major river systems of Asia originate here. The construction of dams and diversion projects in Tibet is a matter of serious concern for the lower riparian states especially India. Ethnic Tibetans in Tibet have become more restive in recent times, garnering huge attention from the global media and world leaders. Although China and India have a well established agreement over Tibet, the enormous presence of Tibetans in India does pose an issue of the host nation utilizing the Tibet factor to pressurize China over the Brahmaputra diversion.

Another factor for the failure of diverting the Brahmaputra might be technical. There is a need for immense technical knowledge and ecological friendly innovations for the effective implementation of such huge projects, which to a certain extent is seen as lacking in China. This has been proved by the numerous environmental problems faced in the aftermath of the Three Gorges Dam project. The plan to divert the Yarlung Tsangpo was first initiated by a Chinese Engineer called Li Ling in his book ‘Tibet’s Water Will Save China’. In the words of Jiao Yong, Chinese Vice Minister for Water Resources, “Considering the technical difficulties, the actual need of diversion, and the possible impact on the environment and state to state relations, the government has no plans to conduct any diversification project on Brahmaputra.” The lack of technical knowledge is therefore another factor for the failure of the diversion project. Additionally, the initial cost of the diversion project would have been huge. There have been reports that China was using the manpower earlier involved in the Lhasa-Beijing railway for the construction of thehydro-power diversion project on the Brahmaputra.

The damming and diversification of any river water in China will intensify inter-state water disputes with its neighboring lower riparian states. In order to prevent these and to stabilize both economic and environmental growth, the project on the Brahmaputra may have been stopped. The stalling of the project also sheds significant light on China and sustainable development as well as the problems which arise in projects that have international ramifications.