As Wen Jiabao and Manmohan Singh begin preparing for their third bilateral summit in New Delhi this week the ghost of their legacies will be haunting their minds. This may well become their last bilateral summit before both leaders move away from active politics, making way for a younger generation of leaders. 

The likelihood of another bilateral summit before they demit office depends on what transpires in New Delhi. But even a successful summit does not provide any such guarantees. Wen’s last visit to New Delhi nearly six years ago during April 2005 had been a successful one. The only silver-lining is that the two leaders have meanwhile met about ten times in various multilateral forums and developed a positive chemistry that will ensure that this opportunity will not be lost completely. 

So, the two prime ministers will be operationalizing the much-awaited ‘hotlines’ between them, setting up the China-India CEOs forum and signing about a dozen other agreements, including business deals worth $20 billion mainly for funding Indian infrastructure projects. But does it mean that this summit does not face any serious challenges, especially from the popular expectations from this summit?

On the top of Wen’s agenda will be China’s concerns about India’s military modernization and deployments as also forward infrastructure building in its eastern sector. In the year 2008, the Indian military had reportedly upgraded its threat perceptions from China from ‘low’ to ‘medium’. Since then, the Indian Army is raising two new mountain divisions involving about 36,000 troops, including 1200 officers as also India’s first ‘sons-of-soil’ Arunachal Scouts battalion. India explains this in terms of China’s rising defence expenditure, increase in so-called ‘incursions’ and need for better facilities for Indian troops.

Premier Wen will also be bringing up the issue of Dalai Lama. As Wen arrives in Delhi on Wednesday afternoon, Dalai Lama will be on a lecture-tour to four Indian cities in West Bengal and Sikkim. Also from Wednesday, Karmapa Lama and Orgjen Trinley Dorje will be inaugurating a week-long 28th Karma Kagyu Monlam Chenmo festival at Bodh Gaya. This festival is commemorating 900 years of the birth of Tibet’s first Karmapa, Dusum Khyenpa (1110-1193AD). Buddhist monks from 54 countries are expected to participate in this Tripitaka festival. China remains sensitive to such high visibility of Tibetan leaders from India.

Wen is accompanied by an unprecedented 400-strong business delegation and China will bring up issues of India’s anti-dumping cases against Chinese exports to India. Though strictly within provisions of the World Trade Organization yet, India is the country that has filed the largest number of such cases against China. Earlier India had also banned import of items like toys, mobile phones, cheese, milk produce etc. In the wake of continuing high trade deficit that stood nearly $16 billion at the end of October 2010 (China’s exports $32.87 billion; imports $17 billion), exploring new possibilities for China’s imports from India remains an urgent and essential imperative.

The list of concerns from the Indian side is much longer. Though China has begun giving normal visas to Indian citizens from Kashmir and calls ‘stapled visa’ only an ‘administrative’ issue, Wen’s travelling to Pakistan after India - and spending an equal number of days - has brought Pakistan back to India-China deliberations. India fails to understand why China should insist on grandfathering three more nuclear reactors at Kahuta. This is especially when Pakistan has become notorious for its internal security crisis, especially in reference to the A Q Khan’s proliferation network that was busted in October 2004. Besides, India had to go through a tedious process of obtaining a waiver for nuclear commerce from the Nuclear Suppliers Group while the same benefits were available to Pakistan without any commitments. This has since revived concerns about China’s involvement in infrastructure projects in Pakistan - administered Kashmir, especially the presence of Chinese troops in that region.

Wen’s itinerary in Delhi begins with public relations exercises like interacting with and teaching calligraphy and tai-chi to children of the city’s Tagore International School. Soft-power, it seems, is the key. India has likewise decided to introduce Chinese language teaching as a third language at 11,000 schools of the Central Board of School Education. The fact that India already has about two dozen indigenous languages in different regions makes this an important initiative.

The most noticeable remains the immediate context of Wen’s arrival. Wen follows recent visits to New Delhi by President Obama and President Sarkozy, and his visit will be followed soon by a visit by President Medvedev. One issue common in all these visits has been the endorsement by these world leaders of India’s candidature for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. This has been another bane of China-India relations. Premier Wen, therefore, is expected to not only elucidate China’s stance on this matter but also move a step further from China’s so called ‘understanding and endorsement’ of India deserving a greater role in the United Nations. Premier Wen is delivering a ‘policy speech’ under the auspices of the Indian Council for World Affairs and he is expected to outline China’s vision and its India policy, though China waters are not really expecting any change.