2010 has been designated by China as the ‘Year of China-Indonesia Friendship’ to mark the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations. Diplomatic relations with China were suspended between the two countries in 1967 after an aborted coup d’état. Beijing was suspected of complicity with the Partai Komunis Indonesia (PKI), the Communist Party of Indonesia. In 1990, with renewed mutual confidence, the two countries renewed formal ties. By 2005, China and Indonesia announced their strategic partnership. At the same time, the US partly normalized military ties with Indonesia after an embargo in the 1990s due to human rights’ abuses by the Indonesian military in East Timor.

The signed Sino-Indonesian agreement sought to expand cultural, political, and the military- security aspects of their bilateral relationship. The development of defence industries, establishment of defence consultation mechanisms and increasing cooperation in the fight against transnational security threats formed integral parts of the agreement. 

On the other hand, Indonesia also improved its military ties with the US; in June 2010, Indonesia and the US signed a wide ranging agreement - the Framework Arrangement on Cooperative Activities in the Filed of Defence, intending to integrate existing collaboration between the two. The US inaugurated a 56 million dollars program to fund production of coastal and shipboard radar systems. In July, the US embassy in Jakarta indicated Washington’s intent to position itself as a key military supplier to Indonesia. The Indonesian purchases of American aircraft will be funded by the Foreign Military Funding Program (FMF). In 2006, Indonesia received FMF funds worth US$1 million, which increased to US$20 million in 2010.

In 2007, China’s ambassador to Indonesia had declared that Beijing stood ready to supply arms to the Tentara National Indonesia (TNI) and the Indonesian National Armed Forces, without any ‘political strings attached’.

Jakarta seeks to develop an advanced domestic arms industry to modernize the TNI’s antiquated equipment, without spending much on foreign weapons’ systems. This has been recognized by both the US and China. Both have moved beyond courting Indonesia, a resource rich archipelago, through methods like diplomatic ties and economic and trade agreements to those including strategic and military ties.

Both China and the US are important players in the region. The positioning of the seventh fleet is to guarantee Asian security, which clearly signals the stakes the US has in the region. Similarly the South China Sea is of extreme importance to China. In fact, there are disputes between China, on one hand, and several South East Asian nations, over the Spratly islands and oil and energy explorations in the area. According to the US, China has become more assertive in the South China Sea, while China maintains that it adheres to its peaceful development strategy. In a Pentagon Report of February 2010, it is stated that Washington regards Indonesia and Vietnam as increasingly important allies in the region. In the same report, it is also mentioned that there is a necessity to increase working with key allies and partners (such as China and India) if the US has to sustain stability and peace.

As the US strengthens its military to military ties in Southeast Asia, the risk increases that the soft power competitive dynamic for regional influence with China may return to the ‘hard power’ confrontation of the Cold War.

While establishing military ties with both China and US may prove to be beneficial to Indonesia, an increase in the security concerns and mutual suspicions of both the US and China may not be beneficial to the maintenance of stability and security. Both countries commit themselves to maintaining stable and peaceful international order, but both are resorting to tactics that are reminiscent of Cold War politics. Thus there is an urgent need to rethink the relationship.

Additionally, a significant percentage of Indonesia’s population is concerned that more of US might in Indonesia may become militarily threatening to them. While engaging in increasing military engagement with China, Indonesia needs to ensure that it does not get embroiled in the dispute between China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei.

According to certain scholars, despite increasing economic and military ties between Indonesia and China, Indonesia’s desire to play a leading role in Southeast Asia may create a geopolitical rivalry with China, which will render useless the potential benefits that Indonesia may have received from the engagement.

Indonesia has historically been an integral component of Chinese and American foreign policy, be it the American concern leading to the Domino theory, or the Chinese concern regarding the ethnic Chinese residing in Indonesia. With the end of Cold War, these concerns have ceased to be primary determinants of international relations. Nevertheless, due to the emerging concerns over the increasing military engagement between Indonesia and the US or between China and Indonesia, a careful rethink from the Indonesian perspective is required on its national interests. Indonesia thus needs to ensure that it acts with caution and makes sure that its national interests do not become subordinated to the larger political motives of the US or China.