Despite Thaksin Shinawatra’s self imposed exile from Thailand since the 2006 royalist coup, the Red shirts campaign that he had been orchestrating since from overseas picked up considerable momentum after the 26 February 2010 Thai court verdict. The seizure of $1.4 billion worth of his assets in Thailand remains a severe impediment towards a political comeback for Thaksin not only from a monetary standpoint but also because it has established in legal precedence, the unscrupulous and corrupt underbelly of his political career. Irrespective of whether the Red shirts campaign shall ever prevail, it is a challenge for his legitimacy, where it matters the most, i.e. inside Thailand. Given the strong and even controversial measures undertaken by the Vejjajiva administration in the month of May to extinguish the belligerent campaign against them, it becomes important to view the crisis not only in the victorious-vanquished framework but analyze what has been the overall impact on society? While, the government’s swift crackdown quelled the protests, what about political discontentment? What are the prospects for fresh elections or reconciliation? Can Thailand’s democratic institutions overcome the precedence of cyclical military coups? Given, the strong bi-polar division in political affiliations, can any political administration truly represent let alone satiate mass sentiment?

The crisis in Thailand is not only one of cantankerous crowds of Red shirts taking to the streets but of social cohesion, identity and most importantly inclusion both political and economic. It was this feeling of alienation which was capitalized upon by the by Thaksin during his political campaigning, that was underpinned by economic populism and gave him the landslide victory in 2005, with 377 out of 500 seats in Parliament. Perhaps it could be argued that this unprecedented conquest by a single party, (Thai Rak Thai) in Thailand, was doomed to be yanked from power dishonorably, given that this is a country that has only known unstable coalitions and semi-democratic regimes. So what has been the legacy of Thaksin’s political tenure? One of the smartest steps taken by Thaksin has been to put stock in organizational structures. His political party got backed by membership of 14 million; additionally after coming to power, he further institutionalized his presence in especially the Southern Muslim-Malay provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala. This has contributed significantly to his unofficial political longevity inside Thailand in spite of being deposed and defamed by opposition factions. Moreover, his social programs such as the, community fund, debt re-structuring fees, access to anti-retroviral (ARV) drugs under the state health program and the 30 baht health scheme are all examples of programs that came under criticism yet were not overturned by the current administration. 

Interestingly, today Prime Minister Vejjajiva, has Thaksin to thank for his popularity. Although, the recent protests stretched from the north to north-east of Thailand with rallies as big as 13,000; most Thai citizens grew weary of the violence, blockades, curfews, destruction of infrastructure and the overall obstruction to their normal lives. Vejjajiva, has been the face that has restored order, in a crisis that has even depressed economic growth by 1.5% of Thailand’s GDP. The Red shirts on the other hand are as if in a quicksand, the more they struggle, the quicker they sink. Their leader is accused of bankrolling protests and arousing unrest. The Vejjajiva administration is now seeking the cooperation of Interpol, to apprehend Thaksin on charges of terrorism, with regards to the recent protest violence. Meanwhile, Vejjajiva took the high road and said he would accept the pronouncements of an independent investigation in to the harsh army crackdown on protestors. Consequently, Vejjajiva survived a no-confidence vote of the parliament and even garnered high approval ratings in a poll conducted by Bangkok University.

The Red Shirts are no where near getting their demands fulfilled and are in fact, in a much worse bargaining position than before the protests. Thai, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij had said before the protest intensity escalated in mid May, that early elections were a possibility but that because the Red Shirts had not stuck with the peace deal, the government was not obliged to its offer to hold them by November. PM Vejjajiva, does not officially have to concern himself with elections till the end of next year. Meanwhile, he has said that Thailand needs a period of stability before any plans for an early election can be put on the table. The violence that ensued from the protests left at least 88 persons dead and 1900 injured. While Thaksin’s lawyers have hired an international law and human rights expert to delve into the heavy government crackdown; Vejjajiva presented a letter to the Thai people on 10 June in which he stated, “It’s time to rebuild our home together, hatred and vengeance can’t build our future”. He urged all Thai people to participate in and contribute towards the reconciliation plan and at the same time acknowledged that the problems that divided and frustrate Thai people cannot be resolved overnight and shall outlive his government. Thus clearly, despite accusations of heavy handedness, it is the Vejjajiva administration that is reaching out to ‘include’ all Thai citizens towards a reconciliation process and stand for the time being on a higher moral ground than the Red Shirts and their leader.