The future of wars would not be territory but for water.

South Asia is a region with heavy dependence on its rivers to meet its need for fresh water, where the above statement hangs as a “Damocles Sword”. The primary issue that could trigger a regional crisis could be over the Indus River. But if it will trigger a war, is the real question.

The red alert is in the form of the Indus River that flows into Pakistan from India. Both countries have systematically brought up the issue of water in their bilateral relations. The dispute is regarding the flow of the Indus River and its tributaries. The Indus River water dispute originates from the provision of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), which came into force in 1960. The IWT was meant to end issues regarding the Indus River within a framework of an institutional mechanism, but it has now sprouted new quarrels arising from the clauses of the treaty.

The primary problem with respect to all Indo-Pak issues is the mutual animosity between the countries. Six decades of hostilities has resulted in constant war mongering between the two. Added to this is the case that Pakistan is building, of India being a security threat. Is this a way of diverting the attention of the people from a few hard hitting realities that exist within Pakistan? The current power and water shortage is having a crippling effect on the Pakistani economy and society which is a result of mismanagement by the authorities and government policies. Is it also a means of covering up the disproportionate use of the Indus waters within Pakistan? The disparity in water consumption between the upper riparian, the state of Punjab and that of Sindh, the lower riparian, is an issue within Pakistan. In most instances, Sindh does not get to enjoy its full share of the river water. 

This issue has helped Pakistan maintain the heat on India and thereby aggravate the tensions in the region. The outcome of such an endeavor is that it not only helps in terms of its propaganda value within Pakistan, but also helps divert the attention from realities within South Asia. Along with this, the Indus issue falls under the greater schemes of things for Pakistan. It added to the rhetoric of the Indian threat under which Pakistan has been living for over six decades. The water issue, though not very significant, helps Pakistan in scoring brownie points with the international community.

All this heat generated over the IWT is a product of the need to maintain pressure on India. This tactic further helps Pakistan justify its actions against India by portraying it as a question of  survival for Pakistan; ignoring the fact that India has not used the Indus River as an instrument to arm twist Pakistan, even during the darkest hours of their bilateral relationship. This time around the recent dispute was accompanied by a few aggressive statements from Pakistan. This is despite the repetitive clarification by the Indian authorities that there exist neither plans nor facilities to curb the flow of water on the Indus River. Perhaps those statements from Pakistan that mentioned a possibility of war between Pakistan and India on the issue of the Indus River could have been meant for reorienting the power equations that lie within Pakistan’s power structure. Was it a turf war between the military and the civilian establishment within Pakistan to project themselves as the saviors of Pakistan?  Or was it a means by which the defence forces could circumvent the democratic institutions to retain their hold on the country, as the military has always done. The dust of war clouds would defiantly favor the army.

On another note, the water crisis in Pakistan is multidimensional. The Indus River originates from glaciers but is also rain fed. The monsoon is a key source of water for the Indus River. The unpredictability of the monsoon along with the issues of water management would result in cyclical bursts of water crisis. This sad reality is most often forgotten, in favor of criticizing India. Or is it a bid to appease the domestic constituency within Pakistan by reiterating to the people that the danger that Pakistan faces comes from its eastern neighbour? Or is this issue being brought up to bury the internal political unrest and pressures that exist within Pakistan? Or is the Indus Water issue being used to reset the political equation that lies within the Pakistan polity, not to mention that as a diverse nation, it is facing hurdles to its internal cohesion. The internal politics of Pakistan has always been overshadowed by anti-India sentiments and the current water crisis could be a tool in the hands of the politicians.