Pakistan's Afghan Policy: Towards a Change?

23 Dec, 1999    ·   300

D. Suba Chandran says it is possible for the military government to reshape Pak's Afghan policy and find a solution to the Afghan crisis

D Suba Chandran
D Suba Chandran
 Director
The Chief Executive of Pakistan, General Pervez Musharraf in his address to the nation on 17 October declared that Pakistan "shall continue (its) efforts to achieve a just and peaceful solution in Afghanistan … (and) wish to see a truly representative government in Kabul ." Later during his visit to Iran in the second week of December, both Pakistan and Iran agreed to find a solution to the ongoing Afghan crisis. Does this signal a change Pakistan 's Afghan policy?

 

 

Pakistan 's policy towards Afghanistan , especially in the last two decades has been based on a single objective - to have a "friendly" regime, if not a puppet one in Afghanistan . This is based on certain social and strategic factors, such as the presence of Pushtoons across the Durand line and the controversy over the Durand line itself.

 

 

The Durand line was drawn in 1893, between the British India and the then ruler of Afghanistan . However later governments in Afghanistan have denounced the Durand line and Pakistan and Afghanistan are yet to reach a settlement. Besides the Afghan government, the Pushtoon community on both the sides of the border does not recognise the line and for all practical purpose the so called international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is non existent. Successive Pakistan governments, whether military or civilian did not press for its recognition of the border, as the assistance to pushtoons by Pakistan gave them leverage over the governments in Kabul .  Besides the presence of Soviet troops in Afghanistan and US-Pakistani efforts to drive them away, made Pakistan to ignore the status of Durand line, in terms of receiving the Afghan refugees and aiding the rebels. The 1993 Islamabad accord between various Afghan groups, the support to Mojaddedi, Rabbani, Dostum and later to the Taliban in the post Soviet phase by are manifestations of these realities. 

 

 

However in the recent period there has been a continuous pressure from both inside and outside Pakistan to reshape its Afghan policy. Externally, the world community, especially the west, has been pressurising Pakistan to use its leverage on the Taliban to establish a democratic government, respect human rights and remove certain harsh measures taken against the women and other minority communities. The United Nations has again rejected the Taliban's claim and consider the ousted Rabbanis' regime as legal. More than the human rights, the west, particularly the US are more concerned on the presence of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan and his extradition. 

 

 

Internally, Pakistan 's support to the Afghan war and the current support to Taliban have affected the social security of Pakistan . The easy availability of drugs and small arms, increasing sectarian and other forms of violence and the presence of Afghan refugees are the direct result of Pakistan 's Afghan policy in the last two decades. The alarming growth of various militant and fundamentalist groups inside Pakistan with different agendas of their own and the fear of "Talibanisation" of Pakistani society are two major factors that call for re-organising Pakistan's Afghan policy.

 

 

Is the present military regime in Pakistan is in favour of reshaping the Afghan policy? Though Musharraf has spoken about "peaceful solution" and establishment of a "truly representative" government" in Afghanistan , it is not clear whether he is seriuos about it. Both a peaceful solution and a representative government in Aghanistan depends on Taliban's willingness to share power the Northern Alliance now known as United Front. The Taliban that controls more than ninety percent of Afghan territory is reluctant to enter into any fruitful negotiation with the Northern Alliance . Despite two rounds of negotiations at Tashkent and Ashkabad, the intra-Afghan dialogue failed to yield any positive result. Though recognised neither by the UN nor by the majority of the countries, Pakistan 's open support have made a huge difference for the Taliban in its policies towards the other groups inside Afghanistan and the outside world. Will the military regime in Pakistan force the Taliban to arrive at a solution?

 

 

It is true, in the recent period, the military regime has taken certain measures to prevent the cross border movement of people, essential goods such as wheat and edible oil and other items such as drugs and arms. However it is to do more with the UN sanctions that have been imposed ever since November 14 on Afghanistan than with a shift in Pakistan 's Afghan policy. The military regime, which is yet to be recognised can not afford to be seen closer with the Taliban. There is already movement of refugees from Aghanistan into Pakistan because of the sanctions that will raise the refugee population in Pakistan . The cutting down of essential supplies by Pakistan have already resulted in sharp increase in prices inside Afghanistan which has resulted in anti-Pak feelings. The military regime is now caught in real dilemma.

 

 

However it is possible for the military regime to reshape its foreign policy and find a solution the Afghan crisis. With Iran, another major player in Afghan politics willing to arrive at a consensus with Pakistan on the issue, it will be easier to find a solution along with other Central Asian States, provided the military regime is willing to exert pressure on Taliban.

 

 

 

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