In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, the founder of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), Jose Maria Sison who is currently living in the Netherlands, spoke of Maoist combatants in the Philippines increasing their armed capacity. Despite reported successes in the government’s struggle against the New People’s Army (NPA), he claims that the next few years will mark a new dawn for the Maoist struggle, which has been ongoing since 1969.

Sison has stated that the Maoist insurgents intend to recruit between three and five thousand new combatants in impoverished rural areas. He has also claimed that as well as a growing number of rebels, increased NPA propaganda and community organizing efforts will be issues facing the Philippine government in coming years. On the other hand, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has stated that the NPA will be defeated by the end of her term in 2010. In May 2009 the new Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) supported the President stating that the NPA will be crushed.

According to the Heidelberg Conflict Barometer the conflict between the NPA and the government escalated in 2007/2008 to become a severe crisis. This has a number of connotations. It is possible that this escalation comes as a result of one or the other party increasing their capacity and strengthening their resolve to defeat the opposition or it comes as a result of both parties intensifying their bid to emerge from the 40 year long struggle victorious. It remains unclear which of these hypotheses holds true but there can be no doubt that an imminent end to the conflict is unlikely.

As yet there has been no sign that the NPA is strengthening its capacity. Government forces have continued to have successes against the Maoist insurgents over recent months. These include the discovery of an abandoned NPA camp in Cotabato, where firearms and improvised landmines were found. A number of rebels have also been killed in clashes with government troops. The situation is in constant flux with ceasefire agreements being signed and broken. It is thus extremely difficult to assess the exact strength of the insurgents. However, there also appears to be little cause for optimism for Arroyo as the NPA has carried out a number of attacks in recent months. In September 2009 the NPA cancelled suspended peace talks and called for renewed attacks following the Philippine government’s refusal to grant an amnesty for Maoist combatants. It is necessary to note that the NPA’s confidence, demonstrated by willingness to breach ceasefires and to continue their armed struggle, is not necessarily a sign that the NPA is increasing its capacity. It can also be attributed to a strong propaganda machine, often a characteristic of Maoist movements.

At the beginning of October 2009 the two parties agreed to a unilateral ceasefire due to the turmoil resulting from typhoons Parma and Ketsana, which struck the Philippines. The ceasefire was initially scheduled to last for one week but was extended on 16 October 2009. As further typhoons were expected to affect the region it was hoped that the ceasefire would hold for the foreseeable future, however, doubts that the agreement would be adhered to remained.  The ceasefire came to an end in late October with the NPA claiming responsibility for the killing of an army soldier in Davao City. They are also believed to have been involved in the kidnapping of five government officials earlier on in the same month. This does not signify a major change for the NPA. The conflict has progressed this way for forty years. There is therefore little reason to believe that the NPA is preparing itself for a significant capacity increase on the basis of a few minor attacks. In fact there is no evidence to suggest that Sison’s claims have any substance. While he remains a figurehead of the CPP-NPA, his exile means that he has not been involved in the day to day activities of the insurgents for over twenty years. This leads one to believe that his claims of a capacity increase for the Maoists are mere posturing and are not fact based.

It seems implausible that the Philippines will witness a new dawn for the NPA. Moreover, the government is unlikely to defeat the rebels in the near future. The situation will therefore almost certainly remain unchanged. The continuing violence is benefiting neither side and thus it is essential that both parties return to the negotiating table. Failure to do so will not only result in unnecessary loss of life but also in gross damage to infrastructure which will continue to impede the Philippines’ attempts to develop.