North Korea: Will Southeast Asia come aboard the US bandwagon?
05 Jun, 2009 · 2887
Harnit Kang looks at American attempts to garner support in the region against the DPRK
On 25 May 2009, North Korea conducted nuclear tests and fired short-range missiles, and followed up by an accumulation of artillery guns on its western maritime borders. This was disapproved by many countries including Russia, the United States, South Korea, ASEAN members and even China, North Korea’s biggest ally and economic partner. Can this allied admonition of North Korea, be a harbinger of a joint undertaking to contain and disarm an obstinate state? Does Southeast Asia agree with the US on this? If Pyongyang does not digress from its current aggressive path, is a US-led military operation imminent? All such questions come to the fore as the world’s superpower begins its campaign of mobilizing allegiances against North Korea in wake of the recent nuclear testing.
The US Defense Secretary, Robert Gates has presented North Korea’s intractable behavior as an excellent opportunity for ASEAN nations to unite amongst themselves and with the US in dealing with a shared problem. Underscoring US efforts to depart from patterns of the Cold War, Gates commended the ASEAN at the Shangri La Conference on 30 May 2009, for establishing stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia through its reliance on a broad dialogue platform. However, on the sidelines of this prestigious meeting of regional defense ministers, there were also plans for a serious response to Pyongyang’s nuclear tests. Reprimands apart, Gates also warned North Korea against exporting its nuclear weapons or know-how to state and non-state actors abroad, a genuine American concern. While the US has stated that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is not a threat, a state that is antagonistic towards the US, trading nuclear technologies abroad in the era of terrorism is a serious concern for Washington.
North Korea cited ‘self-defense’ from preemptive strikes by the US upon its premier Kim Jong Il as reason for conducting the nuclear tests. In an escalation of its hard-line rhetoric, North Korea warned that it shall ‘retaliate’, if the United Nations imposes sanctions, for its May 2009 nuclear tests. Although the international community is nervous, it may also be divided on the appropriate response to the situation. The generally ‘nuclear allergic’ Japan expressed its apprehension over the nuclear tests at the Shangri La Dialogue and stated that while it would not strike first, it was seeking Lockheed Martin F-22 fighter jets to boost its air force. The steadily swelling Chinese military budget has also raised concerns of possible arms brinkmanship in the Asia-Pacific. This year has seen many countries in the region, including Australia and Indonesia, seeking to bolster their arms and maritime arsenal. In a likely reference to North Korea, Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, warned that the absence of regional collaboration on the political and security challenges of the day, may lead to a strategic drift and polarization, which he said served no one. In the light of these comments, it is interesting to note that the US has subtly notified countries in the region that if multilateral efforts to engage North Korea fail, then individual nations should look into defense measures. This is because North Korea’s recent behavior is not merely being perceived as arrogant bravado but a genuine security threat. This view was highlighted by US President Barack Obama, when on 4 June at Cairo University, he stated, “When one nation pursues a nuclear weapon, the risk of nuclear attack rises for all nations”.
When in response to the North’s nuclear testing, South Korea joined the US-led PSI (Proliferation Security Initiative), Pyongyang viewed it as a declaration of war, a violation of the 1953 armistice and indeed threatened military strikes on both countries. However, neither the US nor South Korea have seen any troop deployment at the borders to the effect. Nevertheless cautious South Korea has positioned armed naval patrol vessels along its volatile maritime border. North Korea recently disputed its maritime border with South Korea which was drawn up by the UN under international law. Thus, tensions are running high as both the Koreas have fortified their maritime border which had already witnessed hostile clashes in 1999 and 2002. Moreover, Pyongyang has banned foreign ships, including Chinese vessels, on its western shores till end July, with the latter having reported tipped off on maritime skirmishes that were in the offing.
Given the volatile situation it is not surprising, that many Southeast Asian countries are planning to urge and pressurize North Korea to return to the Six-Party Talks. Thailand and South Korea are two countries that have clearly stated their intent to apply pressure on North Korea and bring it back to the negotiation table. This was announced at the recent summit hosted by South Korea that marked twenty years of ‘dialogue partnership’ with the ASEAN. Meanwhile, the US has warned the Asia- Pacific nations to not fall for Pyongyang’s ploy of making negotiations conditional upon financial aid. Nevertheless, diplomacy is certainly more palpable than a military operation. While the littoral states may contemplate over a gamut of issues, they are all commonly opposed to foreign troop presence and conflict in their immediate neighbourhood.
The US Defense Secretary, Robert Gates has presented North Korea’s intractable behavior as an excellent opportunity for ASEAN nations to unite amongst themselves and with the US in dealing with a shared problem. Underscoring US efforts to depart from patterns of the Cold War, Gates commended the ASEAN at the Shangri La Conference on 30 May 2009, for establishing stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia through its reliance on a broad dialogue platform. However, on the sidelines of this prestigious meeting of regional defense ministers, there were also plans for a serious response to Pyongyang’s nuclear tests. Reprimands apart, Gates also warned North Korea against exporting its nuclear weapons or know-how to state and non-state actors abroad, a genuine American concern. While the US has stated that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is not a threat, a state that is antagonistic towards the US, trading nuclear technologies abroad in the era of terrorism is a serious concern for Washington.
North Korea cited ‘self-defense’ from preemptive strikes by the US upon its premier Kim Jong Il as reason for conducting the nuclear tests. In an escalation of its hard-line rhetoric, North Korea warned that it shall ‘retaliate’, if the United Nations imposes sanctions, for its May 2009 nuclear tests. Although the international community is nervous, it may also be divided on the appropriate response to the situation. The generally ‘nuclear allergic’ Japan expressed its apprehension over the nuclear tests at the Shangri La Dialogue and stated that while it would not strike first, it was seeking Lockheed Martin F-22 fighter jets to boost its air force. The steadily swelling Chinese military budget has also raised concerns of possible arms brinkmanship in the Asia-Pacific. This year has seen many countries in the region, including Australia and Indonesia, seeking to bolster their arms and maritime arsenal. In a likely reference to North Korea, Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, warned that the absence of regional collaboration on the political and security challenges of the day, may lead to a strategic drift and polarization, which he said served no one. In the light of these comments, it is interesting to note that the US has subtly notified countries in the region that if multilateral efforts to engage North Korea fail, then individual nations should look into defense measures. This is because North Korea’s recent behavior is not merely being perceived as arrogant bravado but a genuine security threat. This view was highlighted by US President Barack Obama, when on 4 June at Cairo University, he stated, “When one nation pursues a nuclear weapon, the risk of nuclear attack rises for all nations”.
When in response to the North’s nuclear testing, South Korea joined the US-led PSI (Proliferation Security Initiative), Pyongyang viewed it as a declaration of war, a violation of the 1953 armistice and indeed threatened military strikes on both countries. However, neither the US nor South Korea have seen any troop deployment at the borders to the effect. Nevertheless cautious South Korea has positioned armed naval patrol vessels along its volatile maritime border. North Korea recently disputed its maritime border with South Korea which was drawn up by the UN under international law. Thus, tensions are running high as both the Koreas have fortified their maritime border which had already witnessed hostile clashes in 1999 and 2002. Moreover, Pyongyang has banned foreign ships, including Chinese vessels, on its western shores till end July, with the latter having reported tipped off on maritime skirmishes that were in the offing.
Given the volatile situation it is not surprising, that many Southeast Asian countries are planning to urge and pressurize North Korea to return to the Six-Party Talks. Thailand and South Korea are two countries that have clearly stated their intent to apply pressure on North Korea and bring it back to the negotiation table. This was announced at the recent summit hosted by South Korea that marked twenty years of ‘dialogue partnership’ with the ASEAN. Meanwhile, the US has warned the Asia- Pacific nations to not fall for Pyongyang’s ploy of making negotiations conditional upon financial aid. Nevertheless, diplomacy is certainly more palpable than a military operation. While the littoral states may contemplate over a gamut of issues, they are all commonly opposed to foreign troop presence and conflict in their immediate neighbourhood.
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