Indian Missile Defense: Questions Unanswered
26 Mar, 2009 · 2838
Mayank S Bubna raises a few doubts about the DRDO’s claims
India’s latest successful test of a missile interceptor system in Bay of Bengal on 6 March may not have generated the same national euphoria as its five nuclear tests in 1998 but in strategic circles, there were smaller celebrations. “The third consecutive interception of ballistic missile demonstrated the robustness of the Indian BMD system,” announced a confident VK Saraswat, Chief Controller of Missiles Strategic Systems and Program Director for Air Defense in the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).
This third test, carried out in close coordination between a naval ship off the coast of Orissa and a military base in Wheeler Island, follows on the heels of two prior trials conducted in late 2006 and 2007. What distinguished this test was the use of a gimbaled directional warhead (a term for a warhead that is not limited to a single track across the sky), interception at a higher altitude and a more powerful propellant system.
Later this year, Saraswat said that the DRDO would be ready for an integrated exo- and endo-atmospheric missile interceptor test. The entire project is divided into two phases over a period of several years. The first phase envisages the ability to destroy missiles with a range of 2,000 km, and is scheduled for completion by 2010. Part two, expected to be activated by 2014, will take on intercontinental ballistic missiles with ranges exceeding 3,500 km.
India has been pursuing an anti-ballistic missile defense program for a decade now, coinciding with its nuclear tests around the turn of the century. Aspiring to be the fourth nation to establish missile defences, the development of the system is a revolution in itself. However, while the missile shield is yet to be fully tested and deployed, several questions remain unanswered, and the program has yet to convince its many critics.
First, the question of finances and development. The DRDO has been extremely secretive about the amount being spent on the development of these missile interceptors (one official closely associated with the program’s management estimated it to be in the “several thousands of crores”). Further, some key components of the project like radars, mission control center and launch control center have been produced in joint collaboration with foreign manufacturers. Israel (Arrow-2), United States (PAC-3) and Russia (S-300V) have been trying to promote their own operational Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) systems for a while now. This will save time and money. Saraswat was dismissive of these systems, claiming that an indigenous design would better “cater to India’s threat profile.” He also dismissed the PAC-3 missile as “outdated,” asserting that the Indian designed model was “20 to 30 percent better.” However, defense systems are not driven by the economics that govern free markets. The DRDO was silent on whether the government planned to increase or maintain its purchase of foreign systems, thus not ruling out such buys.
Another issue is that of the technology, which is still being developed. Many feel that the tests were carried out in situations that do not reflect realistic scenarios. The interceptor missiles remain vulnerable to cruise missiles or low-altitude missiles. There has also been no public mention of whether these rockets can distinguish between real warheads and decoys. Furthermore, a one-to-one kill ratio, as demonstrated by the missile test, is highly improbable in the event of a real attack. Whether the system can be deployed effectively in clusters around the nation is a matter of conjecture. “A massive overwhelming attack needs a massive overwhelming counterattack,” says Vinod Kumar, a missile defense expert at the Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses, “You are talking about a shield where you are taken by surprise, where you have minutes, maybe seconds to decide the course of action and interception, character tracking, etc. The Americans are still struggling with this in simulated conditions. So I am not sure who our specialists are trying to convince.”
Last, but not least, is the perceived threat and strategic imbalance of power in the South Asian regional context. While it is still “too early to talk about an arms race” according to Vinod Kumar, the development of this defence program has certainly upset the regional balance of power. No one knows about China’s missile defense plans, except for its successful anti-satellite test in outer space in 2007. Furthermore, despite the vast sums of money spent by India on this program, it has not prevented Pakistan from carrying out a low-intensity war against India, as evidenced by the recent Mumbai attacks.
Overall, however, the program has demonstrated some success. Whether the DRDO can continue to maintain these programmes remains to be seen.
This third test, carried out in close coordination between a naval ship off the coast of Orissa and a military base in Wheeler Island, follows on the heels of two prior trials conducted in late 2006 and 2007. What distinguished this test was the use of a gimbaled directional warhead (a term for a warhead that is not limited to a single track across the sky), interception at a higher altitude and a more powerful propellant system.
Later this year, Saraswat said that the DRDO would be ready for an integrated exo- and endo-atmospheric missile interceptor test. The entire project is divided into two phases over a period of several years. The first phase envisages the ability to destroy missiles with a range of 2,000 km, and is scheduled for completion by 2010. Part two, expected to be activated by 2014, will take on intercontinental ballistic missiles with ranges exceeding 3,500 km.
India has been pursuing an anti-ballistic missile defense program for a decade now, coinciding with its nuclear tests around the turn of the century. Aspiring to be the fourth nation to establish missile defences, the development of the system is a revolution in itself. However, while the missile shield is yet to be fully tested and deployed, several questions remain unanswered, and the program has yet to convince its many critics.
First, the question of finances and development. The DRDO has been extremely secretive about the amount being spent on the development of these missile interceptors (one official closely associated with the program’s management estimated it to be in the “several thousands of crores”). Further, some key components of the project like radars, mission control center and launch control center have been produced in joint collaboration with foreign manufacturers. Israel (Arrow-2), United States (PAC-3) and Russia (S-300V) have been trying to promote their own operational Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) systems for a while now. This will save time and money. Saraswat was dismissive of these systems, claiming that an indigenous design would better “cater to India’s threat profile.” He also dismissed the PAC-3 missile as “outdated,” asserting that the Indian designed model was “20 to 30 percent better.” However, defense systems are not driven by the economics that govern free markets. The DRDO was silent on whether the government planned to increase or maintain its purchase of foreign systems, thus not ruling out such buys.
Another issue is that of the technology, which is still being developed. Many feel that the tests were carried out in situations that do not reflect realistic scenarios. The interceptor missiles remain vulnerable to cruise missiles or low-altitude missiles. There has also been no public mention of whether these rockets can distinguish between real warheads and decoys. Furthermore, a one-to-one kill ratio, as demonstrated by the missile test, is highly improbable in the event of a real attack. Whether the system can be deployed effectively in clusters around the nation is a matter of conjecture. “A massive overwhelming attack needs a massive overwhelming counterattack,” says Vinod Kumar, a missile defense expert at the Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses, “You are talking about a shield where you are taken by surprise, where you have minutes, maybe seconds to decide the course of action and interception, character tracking, etc. The Americans are still struggling with this in simulated conditions. So I am not sure who our specialists are trying to convince.”
Last, but not least, is the perceived threat and strategic imbalance of power in the South Asian regional context. While it is still “too early to talk about an arms race” according to Vinod Kumar, the development of this defence program has certainly upset the regional balance of power. No one knows about China’s missile defense plans, except for its successful anti-satellite test in outer space in 2007. Furthermore, despite the vast sums of money spent by India on this program, it has not prevented Pakistan from carrying out a low-intensity war against India, as evidenced by the recent Mumbai attacks.
Overall, however, the program has demonstrated some success. Whether the DRDO can continue to maintain these programmes remains to be seen.
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