Report of IPCS Seminar held on 20 January 2009

Chair: Maj. Gen. (retd.) Dipankar Banerjee
Speakers: Amb Salman Haidar, Former Foreign Secretary
Mr. PR Chari, Research Professor, IPCS
Air Marshal (retd.) Vinod Patney, Former Vice Chief of Indian Air Force
Dr. D Suba Chandran, Deputy Director, IPCS

Introductory Remarks

Over the next decade or so we will be addressing two critical questions: first, a drawdown in Iraq and second the engagement in Afghanistan which is no longer an Afghan issue alone but involves an Afghan-Pak dynamic. Another important dynamic is that of jihadi terrorism, which has gained vigour due to the conducive environment provided by a growing number of failed/failing states, and with its effects being felt globally. 

In Iraq while the US engagement is coming to a close other influences will now take this as an opportunity to expand their strategic influence in Iraq. In the case of Afghanistan it is difficult, as of now, to say who is winning. In this regard, the April summit of NATO will be of immense significance as it will decide the critical issue of the level of participation by other NATO members in Afghanistan.

India, meanwhile, has had friendly relations with Afghanistan, it has contributed immensely to the reconstruction efforts and it provides scholarships to Afghan students. However, given the nature of the India-Pakistan relationship it is extremely difficult for India to commit troops to the Afghan mission.

Salman Haidar - India’s Foreign Policy

India has experienced economic liberation with a fair degree of success and foreign policy liberation has followed this in significant ways as we have enlarged our options, have new associates. This has helped in the role India can aspire to play globally and has allowed it to have beneficial arrangements with not just the US but other important players as well.

Interestingly, Richard Holbrooke on his recently-concluded visit to India talked of triangles that were inconceivable before, such as the one between India, Pakistan and the US, all three facing the common challenge of terrorism and the Taliban. How far this proposition can be taken in practical terms is debatable, however.

Indian foreign policy in its neighborhood has become more active and less touchy. India now sees common interests as driving its foreign policy goals. Enmities in our neighborhood are also decreasing, though Pakistan continues to be an irritant. Similarly with China, while problems persist, there are also areas of convergence of interests. A Free Trade Agreement with Southeast Asia has been inked which has strategic implications. The role of India in world affairs is going to increase and Indian foreign policy has to be geared towards that.

PR Chari - Internal Security Issues

The recent Mumbai attacks have hijacked the debate on internal security issues. Mumbai was described as India’s 9/11 - the victims belonged to fourteen different nations and the targets of attack were iconic locations aimed at lowering India’s growing image. The attack also highlighted the shortcomings of internal security and also shows a lack of training and weapons to deal with urban guerilla warfare. Mumbai is reflective of a larger disease which is of a neglect of the district police that forms the backbone of the law and order. While emphasizing the role of high-profile specialized forces, India has ignored the police, and this has affected ordinary policing, human intelligence gathering, it affects the quality of investigation and prosecution.

Four other important internal security issues that India faces today need to be highlighted. First, Naxalism or left-wing extremism is as the Prime Minister put it, the most important internal security threat facing us. Today, the Naxal problem affects 13 out of the 28 states. Most of this is restricted to tribal areas which are also significantly home to forest and mineral resources. The roots of the Naxalism lie in agrarian problems and socioeconomic issues.

Second is the ethno-political character of the insurgencies in Northeast India a region which is close to China. Moreover, as China presses ahead with its plans to economically develop Tibet the contrast with the Northeast which continues to be underdeveloped will only further fuel dissatisfaction. Third, the problem in Jammu and Kashmir primarily lies within the state but it is also enmeshed externally with the problems between India and Pakistan.

Fourth is the problem of rising religious intolerance in the country. A clash of Muslim and Hindu fundamentalisms manifests itself in communal riots posing challenges for law and order mechanism in the country.

Vinod Patney - A Strategic Overview

The first and most crucial issue that needs to be flagged is that of nuclear proliferation. Are we looking at a global zero? US Defence Secretary Robert Gates recently opined that we cannot allow expertise on nuclear production to die out. India on its part has put forth the Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan for global disarmament which should be viable and global in its application.

Second, while we have witnessed a shift of economic power into Asia, this has not been commensurate with a shift of military power. Third, while there is talk of an increasingly globalized world there is also dwindling money for foreign development assistance for the poor, and the number of failing/failed states are increasing. These are major strategic issues that need to addressed.

Fourth, if we look at the recent Chinese defence white paper, it is evident China is increasingly seeking to challenge the US economically and militarily. China recognizes that recognition comes from military power. China is no longer an insular power with ambitions for a stronger navy and while it talks of a no-first use policy, it uses this as a plank to build up its nuclear arsenal. There are also important strategic implications of China’s ability to conduct cyber warfare. In fact, cyber warfare is far more important than space warfare. Is there a need for an international law on cyber warfare? And if so will it be implementable? 

Finally, there is the changing nature of warfare. The last time two opposing air forces challenged each other was in 1971, that is, India and Pakistan. Now, one or the other party enjoys clear air dominance.

D Suba Chandran - Pakistan, FATA and Terrorism

The popular belief is that the entire FATA is burning but FATA comprises of seven agencies, and the violence is not monolithic. South and North Waziristan have been hit by violence as early as 2002 and are practically under the control of Baitullah Mehsud. In the three agencies of Khyber, Khurram and Orakzai the violence is sectarian in nature between Shias and Sunnis. In Khyber the violence is between two Sunni groups, between two warlords. Traditionally, the Khyber region has not shown support for the Taliban. In the Bajaur and Mohmand agencies the Taliban have not been able to impose their writ due to the drone attacks and the military offensive by the Pakistan army. From recent developments in Pakistan it appears that the Taliban’s “look east” policy has stopped and they have moved north into Swat. The Taliban have failed to take over settled areas and the attacks here are primarily in the form of suicide attacks. Not all groups fighting here belong to the same group. Many groups like the TNSM are older than the Taliban though the latter is far more powerful.  

What has been Pakistan’s strategy thus far? There is a genuine fear in at least some sections of the military establishment that US interests in the region are not permanent and Pakistani leverage vis-à-vis Kabul needs to be protected for when the US leaves. The Pakistanis thus see the Taliban as their leverage. Second, is the concept of strategic depth vis-à-vis India and hence the ISI has cultivated warlords in Afghanistan who are now a part of the Taliban. Third, given the strong Pushtun nationalism in the tribal areas, Pakistan believes that the Taliban controlling the region is to be preferred. 

What has triggered the current problem in Swat? Till the 1960s the Swatis had their own legal system which was very efficient. However the introduction of the Pakistani judicial system eroded the traditional judicial mechanisms and so the TNSM began its campaign for the re-introduction of traditional law. However, in today’s scenario of the ceasefire in Swat, the leverage that the TNSM leader Sufi Mohammed has with his son-in-law Fazalullah is not clear. The latter is fighting not so much for imposition of Sharia as for control over Swat seen for instance in his acts of bombing schools, summoning officials and forcing then to offer public resignations.

DISCUSSION

Centre-state relations in India 

India’s Constitution, it like many others is a product of its history. The Constitution is an extension of the Government of India Act of 1935 which provided for a strong center and weak state. The Indian Constitution is also an elaborate, written document, one which envisages defense of India as being under the Union of India with law and order under the state. This is not good because internal security problems are not limited to one state alone. Thus arming the Union government with more powers will not help, for instance consider the case of the National Intelligence Agency which is a federal agency but only for the purpose of investigation. But the intelligence gathering process will be local, thus active state participation is essential. 

With India opening up economically there is not always a convergence of interests between the centre and the state. However, the centre on its part has to ensure equitable economic development. 

Indian local police 

At present the Indian local police is not adept at handling even local crimes, leave alone insurgency and this is reflected in the abysmally low persecution rate of 8 per cent. Thus, something is wrong both with the local police and the judicial system. Both the centre and the state need to work in tandem to ensure reforms although it is the centre that should set an example. Further, the states do not coordinate very well with each other; the centre though could step in and play a supervisory role. 

Civil-military cooperation between the US and India

There is undoubtedly greater interaction between the US and India, reflected for instance in the increasing number of joint exercises and their changing nature. In fact, the Europeans are rather dismayed by the expanding ambit of US defense cooperation as they are aching to sell their wares in the Indian market. Indo-US cooperation is going to continue expanding in the future.

India-Russia alliance 

There has a reduction in the vitality of the relationship between the two countries. Defense and nuclear cooperation were two important aspects of this relationship, especially the latter as India was till recently considered a nuclear outcaste. However, following the Indo-US nuclear deal and reduction of this aspect there is less substance in the relationship. Although we are likely to see stronger cooperation between India and Russia in the Far East, Central Asia and the SCO forum, Russia is also witnessing its traditional Indian defense market being slowly whittled away and thus this relationship requires imaginative effort if it is to be meaningfully sustained.

India’s policy towards Pakistan in light of the Taliban advance

The Taliban are not a monolith nor do they enjoy uniform degrees of support, especially in cities like Karachi which are host to a multiplicity of communities. It is only when the Taliban manages to cross the Indus that we in India have reason to fear and this will not be all that easy as civil society in Pakistan is stronger than we assume it to be. The Taliban today have succeeded in presenting themselves also as Pushtun nationalists and if they succeed in this agenda then it spells danger for Pakistan too.

India and China

Chinese designs are not inimical to India and from a defensive angle it is essential for the Chinese on their part to ensure that its channels of communication are secured. As of now are air force and navy is superior to the Chinese and unlike the Chinese our military outlook is more restricted in its geographical scope.

Indian government response to the Mumbai attacks

National security is a multi-dimensional endeavor. Internationally, Pakistan has been obliged to do what it would not have otherwise done and post-Mumbai diplomacy has worked as a viable alternative to the military option. One of the principle objectives of the Mumbai attacks was to trigger a war between India and Pakistan which is where India’s political dynamic has triumphed.