Bangladesh Elections and the Future of Indo-Bangladesh Relations
11 Feb, 2009 · 2803
Report of the IPCS Seminar held on 21 January 2009
Report of the IPCS Seminar held on 21 January 2009
Chair: Maj. Gen. (retd.) Dipankar Banerjee, IPCS
Speaker: Maj. Gen. (retd.) ANM Muniruzzaman, President, Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, Dhaka
Dipankar Banerjee
Elections were held in Bangladesh, recently, under the conditions of extreme severity and still they proved immensely successful. Successful elections strengthen the legitimacy of the process and these elections, which were observed by large number of international experts, were free and fair. It is now important to ask how these developments will affect the India-Bangladesh relations and what are the prospects that we should look forward to?
This time, the Election Commission took several new steps to improve the accountability and transparency of the elections. The national ID with photographs weeded out any false or illegal voter. For the first time transparent ballot boxes were used. Prior to the declaration of the schedule, the Commission held a series of talks with major political parties so that the parties felt included in the decision-making of the election process. In all 39 political parties were registered to contest the poll. 56 parties had registered and the rest were disqualified. A new delimitation of the constituencies was carried and it was completed by 30 June 2008. A new voter list was completed on 16 October 2008 and a national voter ID card was issued to all.
National Elections were held on 29 December, 2008 and the local upazilla elections held subsequently. The Awami League swept the elections, winning more than two-thirds of the seats. It is interesting to note the drop in the seats of Jamaat-e-Islami which went down from 17 in 2001 to just 2 in 2008. Also there was drastic drop in the seats of BNP and its coalition partners.
More interesting is the vote distribution in the country. In 2001, BNP and AL were very close in percentage of votes, BNP being 41% and AL 40%. The distribution of votes has changed this time, but not very significantly; yet the seat distribution has completely swung one way. The AL won 59.2% and BNP got 33% of votes. Interestingly Jamaat-e-Islami has actually increased its votes this time. From 4.28% in 2001, Jamaat has increased its votes to 4.55%, quite contrary to media pundits claiming this to be the end of Islamic vote-bank in Bangladesh. The swing vote was only about 8% .but in terms of seats it made a dramatic difference.
A major highlight of the elections was the high turnout of 86%. 34% of these voters were voting for the first time. Female voters (51%) were higher than the male (49%) voters. The analysis also says that the swing was through new and female voters. While female voters usually cast vote according to the husband’s or family’s instructions, it seems this time, female voters broke ranks and cast vote more independently, bringing about the change. Perhaps the acknowledgment for this must go to micro-credit system operational in Bangladesh.
The ninth parliament has a two-thirds majority of the Awami League, which is an unprecedented majority. The cabinet is also full of new faces. The opposition is small but does not need to be necessarily weak. A high majority like this means high expectations of performance from the public. Unfortunately, it is a trend in South Asia that large majority governments have not exactly been democratic. Hopefully that would not be the case here.
What Bangladeshis would like to see from the new government is for it to rise above narrow political interest and to make the national interest utmost priority. They would also like to see accommodative politics, not the usual dysfunctional “winner-takes-all” politics as also the growth of new generation of leadership and functional inner party democracy.
What does the future hold for the India-Bangladesh relations? It is an accepted fact that democracies have better relations with each other. Therefore, the return of democracy to Bangladesh will give a new impetus in the bilateral relations. However, there are issues of trade, commerce and investment with India which need to be attended. The issue of counter terrorism efforts has to be the utmost priority where India and Bangladesh have to cooperate. PM Hasina has indicated that terrorism is her top priority and has sought a possible task force for entire South Asia. Issues of water sharing have to be another priority especially in the context of climate change. It is also interesting to see that issues of water sharing will also become an important issue between China and India.
There is a need to take consider energy cooperation within the region urgently. Bangladesh has tremendous potential of gas reserves and Nepal has immense hydel power potential. Yet the region remains energy-deficient. There is a need to also take another look at trilateral pipeline project.
Chair: Maj. Gen. (retd.) Dipankar Banerjee, IPCS
Speaker: Maj. Gen. (retd.) ANM Muniruzzaman, President, Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, Dhaka
Dipankar Banerjee
Elections were held in Bangladesh, recently, under the conditions of extreme severity and still they proved immensely successful. Successful elections strengthen the legitimacy of the process and these elections, which were observed by large number of international experts, were free and fair. It is now important to ask how these developments will affect the India-Bangladesh relations and what are the prospects that we should look forward to?
ANM Muniruzzaman
Bangladesh went through historic elections with results that were equally historic in magnitude. The results have generated interest not only in Bangladesh but also in the rest of the region.
This time, the Election Commission took several new steps to improve the accountability and transparency of the elections. The national ID with photographs weeded out any false or illegal voter. For the first time transparent ballot boxes were used. Prior to the declaration of the schedule, the Commission held a series of talks with major political parties so that the parties felt included in the decision-making of the election process. In all 39 political parties were registered to contest the poll. 56 parties had registered and the rest were disqualified. A new delimitation of the constituencies was carried and it was completed by 30 June 2008. A new voter list was completed on 16 October 2008 and a national voter ID card was issued to all.
National Elections were held on 29 December, 2008 and the local upazilla elections held subsequently. The Awami League swept the elections, winning more than two-thirds of the seats. It is interesting to note the drop in the seats of Jamaat-e-Islami which went down from 17 in 2001 to just 2 in 2008. Also there was drastic drop in the seats of BNP and its coalition partners.
More interesting is the vote distribution in the country. In 2001, BNP and AL were very close in percentage of votes, BNP being 41% and AL 40%. The distribution of votes has changed this time, but not very significantly; yet the seat distribution has completely swung one way. The AL won 59.2% and BNP got 33% of votes. Interestingly Jamaat-e-Islami has actually increased its votes this time. From 4.28% in 2001, Jamaat has increased its votes to 4.55%, quite contrary to media pundits claiming this to be the end of Islamic vote-bank in Bangladesh. The swing vote was only about 8% .but in terms of seats it made a dramatic difference.
A major highlight of the elections was the high turnout of 86%. 34% of these voters were voting for the first time. Female voters (51%) were higher than the male (49%) voters. The analysis also says that the swing was through new and female voters. While female voters usually cast vote according to the husband’s or family’s instructions, it seems this time, female voters broke ranks and cast vote more independently, bringing about the change. Perhaps the acknowledgment for this must go to micro-credit system operational in Bangladesh.
The ninth parliament has a two-thirds majority of the Awami League, which is an unprecedented majority. The cabinet is also full of new faces. The opposition is small but does not need to be necessarily weak. A high majority like this means high expectations of performance from the public. Unfortunately, it is a trend in South Asia that large majority governments have not exactly been democratic. Hopefully that would not be the case here.
What Bangladeshis would like to see from the new government is for it to rise above narrow political interest and to make the national interest utmost priority. They would also like to see accommodative politics, not the usual dysfunctional “winner-takes-all” politics as also the growth of new generation of leadership and functional inner party democracy.
What does the future hold for the India-Bangladesh relations? It is an accepted fact that democracies have better relations with each other. Therefore, the return of democracy to Bangladesh will give a new impetus in the bilateral relations. However, there are issues of trade, commerce and investment with India which need to be attended. The issue of counter terrorism efforts has to be the utmost priority where India and Bangladesh have to cooperate. PM Hasina has indicated that terrorism is her top priority and has sought a possible task force for entire South Asia. Issues of water sharing have to be another priority especially in the context of climate change. It is also interesting to see that issues of water sharing will also become an important issue between China and India.
There is a need to take consider energy cooperation within the region urgently. Bangladesh has tremendous potential of gas reserves and Nepal has immense hydel power potential. Yet the region remains energy-deficient. There is a need to also take another look at trilateral pipeline project.
There are also several other thorny issues pending between India and Bangladesh such as the unresolved issues of land and maritime boundaries. These issues need to be resolved most urgently so that such minor issues do not impede progress on everything else. The two border forces continue to have skirmishes, which should be looked into. Bangladesh currently also has a huge trade imbalance with India, a difference of US$2 billion in formal trade with India, and in informal trade of US$ 4 billion. Similarly, there is the major issue of illegal migration on which the governments of two nations do not view things objectively. There is a need for pragmatism from both sides. Ultimately people-to-people contact in terms of knowledge cooperation, socio-cultural and academic exchanges is essential to remove suspicions between the two countries.
DISCUSSION
Comments
Looking at India and Bangladesh, one fails to see any reason why the two nations should not be friendly. There are not many divergent interests and yet there remains this subtle hostility between the two. How does one cross this psychological barrier? What exactly is that Bangladesh wants from India?- What are the specifics of the India-Bangladesh water sharing issues?
- What are the reasons for anti-India sentiments in the general population of Bangladesh?
- What are the possible mechanisms and areas of cooperation on terrorism that are possible between the two countries?
- What are the possible measures that can be employed to resolve the issue of illegal migration?
- What was the response to India-US nuclear deal in Bangladesh?
Responses
- Although the two countries have signed a water sharing agreement, the complaint from the Bangladesh side is that the amount of water that should be released from Indian side does not get through. There is a need for a joint mechanism of inspection on the ground.
- The cooperation on terrorism issue needs functional arrangements between the two countries, which at the moment do not exist or are not functional. The concept of a Counter-Terrorism Taskforce as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is proposing is premature because of the level of suspicion between South Asian countries. However, what can be achieved is a functional arrangement between the counterterrorism bodies of various governments in the field. The ASEAN model is a perfect example where Southeast Asian countries share intelligence with each other and provide direct police liaisons making the cooperation very effective.
- The mood swing of the Bangladesh public from friendly feelings towards India in 1971 to the completely opposite extreme of today is perplexing. However, this is a two-way question. There need to be an internal debate in both Bangladesh and India and perhaps there has never been any soul-searching on both sides. The spirit of the 1971 War is something fundamental to Bangladesh, which is in total contrast to its attitude towards India. To be fair, India does not inspire a very positive image among many of its other neighbours either.
- On the Bangladesh wish list, there are no perceived hurdles of insurmountable nature. For example, the land boundary disagreement involves a border of only six and a half miles. If the two nations can solve other the border issues, why can they not solve this? All the issues that have been pointed out need only political will and bureaucratic willingness to resolve. However, there are some deeper issues that need to be discussed openly which relate to Northeast India, illegal migration and terrorism.
- One of the ideas that is often suggested to deal with migration from Bangladesh to India is the issuance of work permits. Such permits will allow the workers to go back to their country to see their families and reduce inflow into India. The problem is that the migration is a reality and the economic conditions of the region make it inevitable. Both India and Bangladesh need to realise this and try to resolve the issue together instead of trying to curb it unilaterally.
- There has not been any notable response to the Indo-US nuclear deal in Bangladesh since it did not affect Bangladesh’s national interest in any significant way.
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