The political stage in the state Jammu and Kashmir has reached a very crucial juncture. A new government has been installed after the successful completion of elections and as expected, the electorate did not give a clear mandate to one party to rule. Hailed by many as a mandate to administer the State peacefully, the coming together of National Conference and Congress has wider significance and ramifications. The expectancy levels are high and new hopes have sprung up. Despite the initial bonhomie the wider picture should not be missed. Although the mood is generally positive, there are reasons to be cautious on why the alliance needs to tread carefully. One should take a holistic view of the situation keeping the past in mind.

As must not be forgotten, both these parties have been major political forces to reckon with in the State and have been pitted against each other for a very long time. Not as strong as they used to be, in a number of constituencies, they, still directly lock horns, the prime example being Muslim-dominated seats in and around Jammu. Hence, there are elements in both parties who do not see eye-to-eye. Both the parties have been virulently critical of each other and have suffered a gradual but steady decline from their direct contest days till the 1980s. This decline can be attributed to a variety of factors like lack of leadership, terrorism and the inefficiency, lack of developmental agenda, poor performance, disillusionment of voters, and so on. The emergence of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Jammu region have also led to the loosening of their grip on state politics.

With its soft separatist ideology backed by demands for open borders, demilitarization of Kashmir, and human rights, the PDP has managed to strike an emotional chord with the Kashmiri people evident from its sweeping of southern Kashmir. On the other hand, riding high on communal sentiment prevailing in the region in the wake of the Amarnath land controversy, the BJP has won 11 seats a much improved show compared to just one last time.

Though the National Conference has also improved its tally, its vote share has reduced and the Congress has been returned with 17 seats, three fewer from last time. Contrary to what has been generally projected in the media, the public though voting for democracy seems to have not give the NC-Congress combine a mandate to rule as their was no pre-poll alliance between the two parties considered as rivals not so long ago. Their joining hands within a very short period time of declaration of results without any hard bargaining that is traditionally associated with the fractured mandates also shows the eagerness of the parties to somehow form the government. The Congress was a part of the last government in alliance with the PDP and had its Chief Minister in Ghulam Nabi Azad. As the party fared worse than the last time, it should have morally speaking, occupied the opposition benches.

The parties also need to learn from the bad experiences of the past when they came together to form governments in the late 1970s and 1980s and parted ways soon after. When in 1987, the Congress and NC fought elections together after the Rajiv-Farooq Accord it did not last long, and soon the state got embroiled in unprecedented violence and turmoil. The opposition space has once again been left open to more radical voices in the PDP and BJP who have got all the time now to fine tune their ideology and strengthen their political bases with divisive politics and little accountability characteristic of unruly and irresponsible oppositions throughout India. This may have wider ramifications considering the political sensitivity and the potential damage it can do the already strife-torn state.

The coming General Elections will be the first test the coalition will encounter on seat sharing failing which they may find themselves cutting into each other's vote leading to bad blood and which may have a telling effect on the stability and the course of the government.

The alliance may not be termed automatically utterly opportunistic given the extraordinary conditions and the profile of present-day J&K. The mandate of the people is not for the present combine to rule but for democratic rule to return. How far the Omar Abdullah-led NC-Congress coalition is able to gain credence in the eyes of people depends upon its ability to deliver promises made, resolve to shed past differences and the extent of compromises and concessions they are willing to make for each other. They have to move forward and make sure that they do not repeat the same mistakes which have resulted in their undoing in the past. As has been rightly said, "Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it." Let us hope the lesson has been well-learnt.