The United Nation Secretary-General Mr. Ban Ki-moon, speaking to reporters following a closed-door meeting with representatives from 14 nations who constitute the "Group of Friends of Myanmar" talked off a "growing frustration" around the world with Myanmar's military junta. This fourteen member group created a year ago by Ban Ki Moon includes both Western nations pushing for human rights reforms and Southeast Asian trading partners. He also received a letter signed by 112 former presidents and prime ministers urging him to return to Myanmar and to press its military junta to free all political prisoners. Myanmar's military, has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1962, and tolerates no dissent. A vivid reminder to the effect being the brutal suppression of the pro-democracy protests that erupted in August 2007. The junta holds more than 2,100 political prisoners including the iconic pro-democracy leader and Nobel Laureate Ms Aung Sui Kyi. As recently as two weeks ago a court in a northeastern suburb of Yangon sentenced Thet Zin, editor of the local Myanmar-language journal Myanmar Nation, and Sein Win Maung, the paper's manager, convicting them of undermining the government under the country's draconian Printing and Publishing Law.

The restoration of democracy in Myanmar seems unlikely in near future. The 2010 declaration is another attempt by military junta to duck the mounting international pressure. The restoration of democracy seems unlikely due to many reasons. First, General Than Shwe's style of functioning is very secretive and little about him is known to the world community. In an era when basic information about most world leaders is easily accessible, Myanmar's government has not put forward any personal information about General Than Shwe. The general is never known to have given an interview to a journalist, local or foreign. Not surprisingly he exercises complete control over the administration and military.

Second, he has deliberately created an intellectual vacuum among the second rung of military officers, through a policy of purge and promotion that has enabled him to establish complete control over the military. The purges have eliminated many possible successors and created an intellectual vacuum at the highest levels of government. This has also led to a large generational gap between General Than Shwe and his likely successors. The Burmese military establishment also developed a state-within -a-state, a society where army personnel, their families and dependents enjoy a position far more privileged than their counter parts ever had. Today, the strength of three services is estimated at 400,000, and they are much better equipped than at any time in Burma's modern history.

Third, the external pressure is not very effective. China's support is a key factor in the junta's political survival, as Beijing wants "stability," not a regime change. In January this year, China along with Russia used its veto power to block a US and UK sponsored resolution in the UN Security Council. The Chinese insisted that the Burmese regime did not a pose a threat to regional security. Western sanctions too have been ineffective, as Myanmar's principal neighbor's China, India and Asean continue to trade and invest in the country, thus enabling the regime to stay afloat.

Fourth, the economic institutions of Myanmar are under the sway of General Than Shwe. The line between government service and personal business is also often blurred. The families of the top generals are involved in many of the country's largest businesses. When the army first seized power in Burma in 1962, it not only took control over the government, but also assumed economic power. Branded as the "Burmese way to socialism," this meant that almost all private property was confiscated and handed over to a number of military -run state corporations.

Fifth, the protesters have become very weak and disorganized as they have virtually been rendered leaderless as most leaders are either under arrest or have fled into exile. In particular the National League for Democracy (NLD), formed shortly after the 1988 uprising, has been decimated. Its main leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, remains under house arrest, and nearly the entire, first generation leadership of the NLD is dead. The military has altered the social structure of the country too, as the old mercantile elite, which to a large extent were of ethnic Indian and Chinese origin, left the country, as have many of Burma's intellectuals. Prior to the 1962 coup, Burma had had one of the highest living standards in Southeast Asia, and fairly well educated population. But thereafter the military became the only elite.

Myanmar is one of the countries to be publicly denounced for human rights abuses. Roughly one-third of its population lives below the poverty line. Conflicts, battles and wars have been an inseparable part of its history. There appears to be some ray of hope from the younger generation of army officers, who see the need to negotiate with the pro-democracy movement, but this too is limited to small sections of the army. It is only if seeds of such change fructify in the minds of the young officers that can bring fundamental change in Myanmar.