Chair: Maj Gen (Retd) Dipankar Banerjee

Speaker: Professor Jing Huang, Visiting Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore

Prof Jing Huang

Chinas meteoric economic growth over the last few years has emerged as a double edged sword while it has exposed China to the rest of the world and converted it as an upcoming global manufacturing powerhouse, it has also raised suspicion in the international community about the prospect of China using its economic might to assert itself more aggressively globally, possibly even militarily. To allay foreign fears, Chinese officials have adopted a new more pacifist policy, aptly titled by the catchphrase peaceful rise. While some Chinese bureaucrats have complained that peaceful development is more suited than the menacing-sounding peaceful rise, everyone in China agrees that China's policy of anti-hegemony has become a vital part of its strategic framework.

Historical Perspective Coming of China, and Fundamental Dilemmas in Chinas Rise

Chinas growing might is not a happenstance occurrence; rather it was guided very much by global events. Barely a decade ago, the Chinese officials would have bridled at the idea of China as a benevolent emerging super power. Fears of insecurity were compounded by several international factors the Asian economic crisis in 1997-98 made China aware of its vulnerabilities in the global economy; bombardment of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade by US/NATO in 1999 resulted in strong nationalistic resentment, particularly because Chinese leaders were unable to reciprocate in kind; and the airplane crash in 2001 led to an intense standoff between China and the US.

It was in this environment that the Chinese realized that they did not have global military capability, a vital requirement for nations with international strategic interests. What is more, China's own backyard, the Asia-Pacific region, was dominated by the US and its allies. And the greatest barrier to China's growth was not an external threat, rather domestic instabilities with international repercussions, such as Tibet, human rights issues, and the relationship with Taiwan.

Chinas New Diplomacy An Adaptation to Reality

By 2002, China began to make gradual but fundamental changes in its strategic thinking. It decided that it was in its best interests to maintain status quo rather than challenge the world order; integrate itself into the international economic system despite having a political system that was vastly different; recognize US presence in the Asia-Pacific region as a part of its security requirement in its vicinity; and adopt a good neighbourhood policy.

Chinas new diplomacy is multilateralist it enables China to maximize its interests while minimizing its responsibilities. While only a few years ago it had border disputes with most of its neighbours, modern day China has consented to diplomatic engagement and consultation rather than flexing its muscles. Its political dexterity has been accompanied with a complete alteration of its economic image, and China is using its financial clout to counterbalance other superpowers.

Policy reorientation under the peaceful rise strategy:

With regards to the US, China has recognized American might in the Asia-Pacific region. Its policy is more anti-unilateralism than anti-hegemony. With Japan, China has begun to treat it as its Asian neighbour rather than a US ally. In other words, it has delinked US-Japan relations from its own relationship with the island nation. North Korea continues to be one of China's few friends, although this is nothing to brag about. Priorities have now shifted from peace and stability in North Korea to a nuclear free North Korea. The six-party talks hosted by China are an example of this. With regards to Taiwan, since 2004 China has allowed for the existence of an independent-minded Taiwan. It is trying to subtly work on the image that it is for peaceful reunification over the long term, in an effort to address international suspicions that China might still pose a threat to Taiwan. China has signed a treaty with ASEAN nations stating its desire to be non-interventionist and non-confrontational.It has also promoted SCO in an attempt to strengthen border security and counter any threats posed by bordering nation states.

Consequences and Challenges of the Peaceful Rise strategy:

Despite its reassurances to the rest of the world that the new China would like to build amicable relationships based on mutual trust and long term bonds, the international community is not entirely convinced of China's new role as a harbinger of peace in Asia and the world.

For starters, any new emerging superpower can be a bit disconcerting. The worry lies not in China's rising, rather what happens after China has risen. The Chinese have had to face some backlash regarding its policies towards Myanmar and Darfur. With greater participation in the world community, its domestic problems have come to light as well, including but not limited to Tibet and human rights issues. Credibility in the eyes of the international community has become more important than flexibility, something which China did not have to worry about a decade ago.

Chinas military prowess and build up also strike some critics as being in sharp contrast to its message of a peaceful China. The argument is that China, in the long term, will become more opportunistic and abandon its multilateralist approach towards international engagement; in other words, its goodwill will continue only as far as its interests are not threatened. The perception is that Chinese leaders are using economic growth to distract popular opinion and also allow them to monopolize control over China, something which is not possible in a democratic system.

On the other hand, with China's unprecedented growth, it has become a stakeholder in the international order. Other superpowers recognize China's influence, and have accordingly changed their approach. Rather than attempting to contain China, they are hedging against it, using international cooperation and consensus to press China one way or another.

An insecure China from a decade ago has given way to a more assertive China that can not only participate in the game of international politics, but in the very making of the rules of the game itself. In this way, China's global interests have become legitimized.

China however needs to create a greater sense of openness within its own walls in order for the international community to fully accept China's strategy of peaceful rise. Without this, no amount of charm diplomacy is ever going to convince the world otherwise.

Discussion

Comments

• In 20 years, will China be more assertive?
• Do you see a roadblock due to the economic slowdown?
• What do India-China relations look like for the future? How can they be improved?

Responses:

• China's leaders are realistic they know that the US is numero uno and that China can get good leverage with other Asian countries only if it has good relations with the US. China cannot confront the US but can counterbalance it in the region China is developing better relations with its neighbours to leverage against the US. China might use multilateralism as opportunism (which then becomes just another word for unilateralism) but all great powers do that as long as it suits them. China wants to be a rule maker in the international system, and this is only possible with global military power. But China's not being a democracy won't be an obstacle for it in the international system.

• Globalization, given current events, has been brought to a standstill. Globalization was characterized by two phenomena:
  • Financial expansion, driven by Wall Street, but now completely finished.
  • Internationalisation of manufacturing and service which has also weakened now.

Economic regionalisation is fast replacing globalisation as the driving force. Both India and China can take advantage of this. China is capability-based so even if they might not have a clear vision of their international strategic framework, they do have a strategy based around capability.

• India and China have a complicated relationship driven by three issues:
  • Territory dispute over the Himalayas. Deep nationalistic resentment and also the credibility issue internationally lead to this divide. Neither India nor China can set a precedent for giving up land.

• India and China also need to figure out if they look at the Asia-Pacific region in the same way. Is there a match or are there confrontational views? Several complicated sub-issues arise like Pakistan and SE Asia.

• China and India also have an encirclement problem. As both become global powers, it is important to figure out if both their strategic policies are consistent with each other, or will they hedge against one another. At the moment, no strategic dialog exists between India and China. Indo-Chinese relations need to be characterized as being different beds, but the same dreams. For the first time in history, they share the same security strategy with regards to Pakistan. They need to look at the Pakistan issue together. This is where they can cooperate.