Obama and the North Korean Nuclear Programme

24 Nov, 2008    ·   2739

Hayoun Ryou discusses the possible course of the US President-elect's North Korea policy


Barack Obama's victory may bring new dimensions to handling the North Korean nuclear crisis. Though the goal, 'denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula' is the same for both Republicans and Democrats, Obama's North Korea policy would have several features different from the current administration. There will be changes in the means, personnel and the overall approach employed.

First, there would be a change in means to achieve the goal. In the 2008 Democratic National Platform, Renewing America's Promises (RAP), it was said "we will continue direct diplomacy and are committed to working with our partners through the six-party talks," which suggests that a multilateral framework and bilateral approach would be pushed to ensure denuclearization. During the campaign, the US President-elect, Obama, promised to seek direct talks with the North, and criticized the Republicans for not having such direct talks. In tandem with this bilateral approach within the multilateral framework, international nonproliferation regimes like the IAEA and NPT will be more significant in dealing with the North. According to the RAP, the US will seek to double IAEA's budget, support the creation of an IAEA-controlled nuclear fuel bank, and strengthen the NPT. Obama addressed the reinforcement of the NPT so that countries like the North "that break the rule will automatically face strong international sanctions," implying that international measures will be of more importance.

Second, Vice-President elect, Joe Biden's, role would be significant in handling the North's nuclear programme. As an experienced Senator of 36 years and the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden has deep knowledge of the Korean Peninsula and good personal connections with South Korea's political celebrities like former president Kim Dae-jung. This suggests that Biden may take a leading role in shaping America's North Korea policy. Also, Frank Jannuzi, Obama's advisor on handling the Korean Peninsula is his former aide. Thus an Obama's policy may reflect Biden's views on the North Korean nuclear programme.

As President, Obama will likely push to reinforce human rights and human rights issues will have greater weight in his foreign policy. As mentioned in the RAP, "we will stand up for oppressed people from Cuba to North Korea and from Burma to Zimbabwe and Sudan. We will accord greater weight to human rights." On 7 October 2008, the North Korean Human Rights Reauthorization Act of 2008 was signed, in which the post of the US special envoy on North Korean human rights is that of a full ambassador. Democrats have shown great interest and put more weight than the current government on human rights in the North. However, as Biden noted stressing too greatly on human rights in dealing with the North could hamper US security interests, and so it could not be very critical of the North while handling the denuclearization issue.

Third, the overall approach toward the North would be engagement, but verification of the programme. The RAP stated that the Democrats supported "the belated diplomatic effort to secure a verifiable end to North Korea's nuclear weapons programme." US Republicans and Democrats share the common goal of denuclearizing the North, and the Democrats underscore complete verification of the process. Obama and Biden have said that they will use tough diplomacy backed by real incentives and real pressures to verify the dismantling of the North's nuclear weapons programme. If Obama's 'tough diplomacy' fails, this upcoming administration might adopt policies, as tough as or tougher than the Republicans did. Direct talks with the North will begin when the "conditions" are met implying strong verification or strong positive gestures from the North before direct talks commence.

These new trends in handling the North Korean nuclear programme will offer North Korea both opportunities and challenges. Direct talks and an overall engagement policy are the opportunities, while strong verification measures require more serious and positive steps, which are the challenges. It is important to remember that while the Democrats had negotiated the 1994 Agreement, they also saw how this agreement failed. Though they favor the newly elected US President, the North knows that the time has come to take more decisive steps. A breakthrough is possible if Kim Jong-il takes bolder steps to resolve the nuclear standoff, to seek a way out of its current economic morass and to stabilize the political situation following his ill health. At the same time, the North is required to provide full guarantees that it will meet the US's strong verification requirements. At this stage, trust-building and CBMs on both sides would be required.

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