There has been much discussion on the telephone call US President-elect, Barack Obama, did not make to Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh. After his election, Obama had called many heads of state including Pakistan's President, Asif Ali Zardari. That India was not on his first list irked many and fears were expressed that a sea change had occurred in the incoming administration's policy towards India compared with that of the Bush administration. While Indian officials were quick with explanations and the telephonic conversation did take place later settling the issue, it is necessary to look at the larger picture without making hasty judgements.

A large section of the Indian intellectual community and the media are apprehensive about the Democrat victory in the US elections, and would have preferred another Republican administration. The logic is pretty simple. Bush has been pro-India and McCain would have continued his policy. Bush's policy has appeared pro-India not because India was on his mind but because certain circumstances had constrained the Bush Administration for most of its tenure. 9/11 and the subsequent war on terror, and the prolonged Iraq conflict required the Administration to search for a symbolic victory.

Moreover, the US did not wish to anger India since it wanted Pakistan's undivided attention on its war on terror. Therefore, it could not let tensions in South Asia escalate, while maintaining a balance in the region. One needs to recall here the Indian government's posture following the 13 December 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament. That the unprecedented build-up of forces did not lead to war and India achieved much less than it wanted is not a defeat for India, but a victory for the Bush Administration's South Asian diplomacy. Also shaping Bush's India policy was the rise of China in this period.

If one believes that the overall Bush Doctrine was wrong then any change that Obama brings about will welcomed. His first priority will be ending the Iraq war and consolidating security in Afghanistan. If this is ensured, along with opening a dialogue with Iran, it will encourage peace in the region. Second, the unilateralism of the Bush era has crippled the United Nations, and there are hopes that this process will be reversed. This would help in climate change negotiations since the process for replacing the Kyoto Protocol by 2012 is about to begin. The Obama government is expected to be more flexible on this issue as world opinion is gaining momentum that US cannot keep asking developing countries to cut their emissions while keeping its fleet of gas-guzzling SUVs intact. New US initiatives can bring China to the negotiating table in the field of climate change and emission reductions and India too can play a vital role here.

Third, even if he has raised concerns over the flight of jobs from the US, Obama is likely to find it less possible to translate his rhetoric into reality. In a milieu of cost-cutting and rationalization, it will not be easy for Obama to convince American business leaders to bring back jobs and pay more, which would affect the profits. Moreover, if the short-term protectionism of Obama is able to rejuvenate American economy, it will help India over the longer run through greater US investments in its economy. A similar view can be taken on Obama's views regarding Kashmir. While Obama has said that he would like to see peace in South Asia, he has not pressed for the US to adopt any direct role in this process, unlike the American policy of taking the Afghanistan war into Pakistani territory. And as long as this is his position on Kashmir, it will continue general US policy in the region. Moreover, his condemnation of religious extremism is more in sync with Indian policy than the Bush doctrine on the war on terror.

Further, the current American meltdown and its serious ripple effects on the world economy, increasing fears of recession, have not spared India and its effects have been severe. If the dropped jaws of the market analysts and the repeated media briefings required by Manmohan Singh on the health of the Indian economy were not enough, the spate of suicides by middle class investors provide a sad testimony to this fact. The need for 'change,' therefore, has never been more pressing than right now. To sum up, India has more to gain from an Obama presidency than many seem willing to believe.