Review of 2008 US Elections: Winners and Losers

10 Nov, 2008    ·   2729

Mohammed Badrul Alam looks into the reasons behind the victory of the Democratic candidate Senator Barack Obama


Barack Obama, the 47-year old first-term Democratic Party Senator from Illinois and the first African-American Presidential candidate of a major political party, has defied conventional wisdom to become the next President of the most powerful nation on earth. How did this happen? Here are some clues to Obama's spectacular victory and the Democrats increasing their majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives of the US Congress.

First, the high disapproval rating of 66 per cent of the present incumbent, George W Bush, coupled with the severe economic meltdown on Wall Street created a wave of anger and anxiety in the American electorate. The 2008 elections has a historical parallel with the elections in 1932 amidst fears of the Great Depression, 1980 and Ronald Reagan's ringing question of "are you better off today than you were four years ago?," and Bill Clinton's 1992 victory with the slogan, "it is the economy, stupid."

Second, the unprecedented fund-raising capability of Barack Obama completely overshadowed John McCain and the Republicans. Obama had enormous tactical advantages as he declined to accept public funding for running his presidential campaign. In the process, he raised more than US$600 million. In contrast, John McCain was cash-strapped as he had to rely on the public funding of US$85 million for running the final two months of his campaign.

Third, in spite of Alaskan Governor, Sarah Palin, re-igniting the Republican base, she was found to be lacking the leadership qualities to become the President should circumstances so warrant in future among the majority of Americans. In just a 30 day period, her unfavourable ratings doubled from 28 per cent in September to 56 per cent in October. Senator Joseph Biden, Obama's running mate, on the other hand, was found to be a capable and effective leader well-versed in the nuances of foreign and national security policy.

Fourth, the US Presidential election is all about electoral college math. A candidate needs 270 electoral college votes out of a total of 538 to win the presidency (based on winner-takes-all in each state except two states where they follow a proportional electoral method). Obama not only retained the traditional Democratic states, known as the Blue states that its nominee won in 2004 and 2000, Obama also converted some red states that voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004 to the Democrats cause. These states include Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico.

Fifth, the record number of voting minorities in some of the swing states also went in favour of Barack Obama. Hispanics who constitute 17% in Colorado, 42% in New Mexico, and 20% in Nevada were inspired by Obama's call for fundamental change in US policy on the economy. Similarly, in Florida, Cuban Americans who number over 830,000 and black voters in North Carolina who constitute 21 per cent of that state's electorate, voted overwhelmingly for the Obama-Biden ticket. Besides, the US has an early voting system and the Democrats energized their base to go for record voting that resulted in over 30 per cent of the electorate voting before the 4 November election date compared to 22 per cent in the 2004 election.

Obama's victory was a landslide like the 1980 election when Ronald Reagan reshaped the political landscape with a major party realignment. In the 2008 election, the Democrats secured an unprecedented gain in the US Senate, and emerged as a larger majority. Similarly, with a net increase of over two dozen seats in the House of Representatives, the Democrats are in the driver's seat for pushing their legislative agenda by taking centrist and moderate Republicans along with them.

With a Democrat occupying the White House after a gap of eight years, the new President will also be able to re-shape the US Supreme Court by appointing several liberal leaning judges to its bench. This will have far reaching implications for overhauling the conservative agenda of the Republicans for many years.

As regards Obama's policy toward India, he is on record stating that India will be a "top priority" for his administration and that "the US would be working with India on a range of crucial issues from preventing terrorism to promoting peace and stability in Asia." Obama is also in favour of having a close strategic partnership and strengthening India's economic muscle in the 21st century. It is very likely that the new Obama administration will facilitate India's rightful claim to be a member of the expanded UNSC and G-8 group. One hopes the robust relationship between the two countries will grow during Obama administration in the next four years.

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