"Political reforms can't be imposed," was the statement Bangladeshi Chief Adviser (CA) Fakhruddin Ahmed gave while talking at a press conference at New York, recently. He went on to argue that for a stable democratic politics, reforms have to be carried out through a process.

The CA's Caretaker Government (CTG) should know. After two years of rule under the military-backed CTG, which attempted to bring in many political reforms through an apolitical administration under emergency rule, it seems Bangladesh is all set to slip back to the old chaotic politics. While the CTG plans to follow the election schedule as promised, it does not look like anything else went as planned for the CTG.

In January, 2007 when the CTG took power and imposed a national emergency, it planned to bring major reforms to fight corruption, terrorism and political chaos in the country. Two years later the government's report card does not look very good. Initially, the government applied the now infamous "minus-two" theory - to remove the "battling begums" Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina from domestic politics. Through a series of corruption investigations, arrests and exiles, the government did manage to do so for a long time. In parallel, the CTG also tried to create divide the established political parties, urging them to question the leadership of the two former PMs.

As the government's self-imposed deadline of elections started coming closer, this strategy started going awry. The CTG could neither split the parties, nor could it tarnish the popularity that the begums commanded in Bangladesh. Soon the "minus two" strategy had become the "manage two" strategy. However, now it seems that even the managing is not going so well. The begums are back, with the same coalitions as before and the political parties are mounting a continually-escalating pressure on the government and the Election Commission to repeal most of the political and electoral reforms that were put in place. The ambitious Representation of the People Order (RPO) which was supposed to be the central piece of electoral reforms, is still stalled in frustrating rounds of talks between political parties and the EC. On 30 September, the EC gave a statement admitting their inability to enforce the new code of conduct for parliamentary polls. It is clear that if the BNP and its allies do not follow the RPO, the whole configuration of electoral reforms will crumble and the CTG may be forced to continue with the elections minus the reforms.

The worst aspect of the dilemma is that the interim government is leaving Bangladesh at the worst possible time in the past two years. The Bangladeshi public is not satisfied with the government's performance. As of 20 September, inflation in the country stood at 10.82 per cent, a six-month high. In July CTG increased fuel prices by 34 per cent. On September 30, the government raised power tariffs by 16 per cent. The well-publicised anti-graft campaign which was meant to be the foundation of CTG's reforms has failed. Recently, Transparency International, an organisation monitoring corruption at global level stated that corruption in Bangladesh remains as rampant as it was before the CTG took over. FDI investment inflow into Bangladesh has actually dropped by 16 per cent in 2007 as against the regional trend of 18 per cent increase. If there is not a miraculous recovery in the government's performance within the next few months, it will lose all the goodwill that it could have earned, solidifying the position of current political scenario even more in public minds as the only solution.

Unfortunately, the CTG may not be in a good bargaining position in terms of buying time. The pressure of the international community and from within is simply too big for it to postpone the election dates. Moreover, the Bangladeshi military, with whose support the CTG is able to maintain its apolitical strength in governance, may not be keen to prolong the process. A failure to institute democracy in the country as promised will not be taken lightly in the UN. For the Bangladeshi military, the largest contributor in UN peacekeeping operations, this can mean the loss of the massive earnings from contributing troops for peacekeeping missions. Given that Bangladesh is being considered for a lead role in the upcoming mission in Somalia, the pressure on the military is mounting.

It has to be conceded that the CTG is also not entirely a picture of failure. The government has achieved many objectives in strengthening democratic institutions, including the passing of historic Right to Information Act. It has also been largely successful against religious extremism and terrorism that had been plaguing the country for years. The infamous terror group, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI,) is being brought into this elections as a political party which might lead to the extremists giving up weapons and fighting for their demands within the bounds of democracy.

However, the CTG has failed to change to the political landscape of the country. It has failed to give an impression to the Bangladeshi public that there can be an alternative to the chaotic, winner-takes-all kind of politics, the country has witnessed so far. And if rumours are to be believed, the government's negotiating hand will only grow weaker as it seeks immunity when the next government comes in against prosecution for its own excesses. What remains to be seen is how much of the the institutional reforms that CTG achieved will be undone by the democratically-elected government that comes in..