Assessing Indo-US Relations During the Bush Years
02 Oct, 2008 · 2693
Mohammed Badrul Alam outlines the changed contours of the Indo-US relationship in the last eight years
In the final weeks of the Bush presidency, it is time to reflect on the Bush administration's policy toward India during the last eight years. Upon assuming office in January 2001, President George W. Bush had identified India as a pre-eminent power in South Asia and as an emerging global power. India's potential to be a strong regional power in the Asia-Pacific region was acknowledged in a January 2000 Foreign Affairs article authored by Condoleezza Rice wherein she envisioned the new administration's interest in having a strategic partnership with India.
Although the process of engagement with India had started in the final years of the Clinton presidency with the lifting of economic sanctions following India's Pokhran II nuclear test and the US 'de-hyphenating' its relations with India and Pakistan, it was Bush who laid the foundations for a paradigm shift by viewing India beyond the sub-regional context.
The events of 11 September 2001 shifted the US' focus towards Pakistan which was termed a 'frontline state' in the global war on terror. However, India soon occupied the center stage when it supported the United States at the Bonn Peace Conference that ultimately paved the way for a Hamid Karzai-led government in Afghanistan. The US and India also co-sponsored a Comprehensive Convention against International Terrorism that led to dismantling of terrorist networks. Both countries also took concrete steps to curb cyber terrorism by creating the Cyber Security Forum for tracking financial flows and encrypted communications among terrorist groups.
Bilateral defence cooperation received a significant boost to strengthen military ties between the two countries. The creation of the Defence Policy Group (DPG) coordinated the operational concepts of the two militaries and facilitated joint operations by the army, air force and navy on both sides. Since 2002, both India and the US have conducted over two dozen military exercises, including simulation exercises and dovetailing command and weapon systems.
Another important aspect of the defence cooperation is sale of advanced weapon systems to India. Firefinder Weapon Locating Radars (WLRs) from Raytheon Corporation were sold to India for US$180 million in 2003 customized to India's needs and detecting cross-border firing across the Line of Control. Apart from allowing Israel to sell Arrow anti-missile systems to India, the Bush administration also facilitated the induction of Phalcon AWACS radar, Patriot Advanced missiles, maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft, Greenpine and Aerostat low-level balloon radars. While India has diversified its procurement beyond Russia, Britain and France, the US under the Bush administration adopted a pragmatic approach by engaging India on a range of security issues of mutual concern.
In the economic area, as India shifted gear from a state-planned economy to a more vibrant free market economy heralded by economic liberalization, two-way trade between the two countries has tripled in the last seven years from US$14 billion in 2000 to US$41.6 billion in 2007. The US is also India's largest investor with over US$6 billion as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). However, for greater bilateral trade, the US expects India to simplify its labour and capital sectors and adopt more market-friendly policies. India, too, expects the US to remove non-tariff barriers on textiles so that India can compete with China in the US market.
On the nuclear deal with India, despite the criticisms in both US and India, the crux of the matter is ending India's isolation in the international nuclear regime to attain its target of generating 52,000 megawatts of nuclear power by 2020. The share of nuclear power now comprising barely 3 per cent is likely to go up to 10 per cent in the next fifteen years. Once India starts importing uranium, all its civilian nuclear reactors will operate at 90 per cent of their rated capacity comparable to 40 per cent at the present time. There is also a financial bonanza in the deal. As many as 400 Indian and foreign firms including those from US are going to be beneficiaries with over US$40 billion traded over the next 10-15 years. The nuclear deal will also reduce carbon emissions and greenhouse gases.
At present, for bilateral relations to move forwards, there is a compelling need to pursue a broader dialogue. The US can help India gain in its rightful claim to be a member of the expanded UNSC and G-8 groups as it is a flourishing democracy with 1 billion plus large and entrepreneurial population yearning for a faster rate of growth. The US can also provide assistance to India in the agricultural sector as it did by ushering in the Green Revolution in the 1960s, the Blue Revolution (marine products) in the 1970s and the White Revolution (milk/dairy products) in the 1980s. The stakeholders on both sides, based on shared values and interests, can sustain this relationship by taking a longue duree view.