What happened in Islamabad on 2 June?

In the first strike on a foreign embassy in recent years, a car-bomb exploded on entering the Danish embassy, killing 8 people, injuring 14 others and damaging several buildings. None of the Danes employed in the embassy were killed, the victims being Pakistani nationals working as staff at the mission. Initial reports indicate that the bomb was fitted to the vehicle. Amidst speculation of it being a suicide attack, it remains unclear as to why the bomber, having entered the embassy gate (a startling fact in itself), did not blow up closer to the official building.

What triggered the attack on the Danish Embassy? Does it represent a growing trend of attacking foreign nationals?

There has been unrest inside Pakistan since cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammad were first printed in September 2005 in Danish newspapers, and their subsequent reprinting in February this year. Numerous rallies were organized in Karachi by the Jamaat-i-Islaami protesting against the Danish government's stubborn attitude towards the publication of the cartoons (at least 17 Danish newspapers reportedly reprinted the cartoons in February). Adding to the threat against Denmark was the inclusion of 700 of its troops in the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan that has repeatedly been targeted by pro-Taliban militants.

Moving beyond the obvious motive in attacking the Danish embassy, however, is a growing trend of attacks on foreign nationals and embassies in Pakistan. In 2002, the US Consulate in Karachi was attacked by car bomb that killed ten people. The same year, in another car bomb attack in Karachi, more than ten French engineers were killed.

Another attack at an Italian restaurant on 15 March, this year, killed a Turkish woman and injured dozens of other foreigners. In April, an abortive attempt was also made to kidnap two employees of the World Food Programme in the Khyber Agency of FATA.

Clearly, a trend is evident.

Was there a security lapse?

The Danish embassy in Islamabad is situated in one of the most secured areas. Given the reach of suicide attacks, either in the form of human bomb or car bomb, there is always the possibility of such unfortunate events. Physically protecting buildings and personnel is only one part of larger security preparations. Human intelligence, sharing of information between agencies, timely input and warnings to embassies of an impending attack constitute larger security measures. Only a proper investigation can reveal where the security lapses have been.

Does this attack mean the peace deal with militants in FATA is ineffective?

This question is based on the assumption, that the militants and jihadis in Pakistan are monolithic. There are, however, three distinct groups of jihadis/militants in Pakistan, belonging to al Qaeda and Taliban; the local supporters of the first group, mainly belonging to the Pashtun community; and the various sectarian groups.

While Taliban and al Qaeda have their base primarily in NWFP, FATA and across the Durand Line, there have been pockets of their presence elsewhere in Pakistan, for example in Karachi and Islamabad. The Pashtun supporters of al Qaeda and Taliban are primarily located in the FATA and NWFP, with whom the government has been attempting to strike a deal with - in Waziristan, Bajaur and Swat. These groups are led by militant leaders like Baitullah Mahsud in Waziristan and Fazlullah in Swat. The third group, comprising of other communities inside Pakistan, mainly belonging to Punjab and Sind, are former cadres of HuM, Jaish, Sipah-e-Sahaba and other sectarian organizations.

The peace deal with militants in FATA and NWFP is limited to the second group and does not include the first and third groups. Hence, it is unlikely that this peace deal will either stop such attacks outside NWFP and FATA or across the Durand Line

Will these attacks continue?

Inside Pakistan, there is an overarching anti-American sentiment, right from inception, which has only increased since 9/11. The European presence in Afghanistan and their support for the US led global War on Terror, has only expanded this anti-American sentiment into anti-West sentiment. Issues such as the cartoon controversy in Denmark, ban on headscarfs for Muslim girls in France and 7/7 in the UK, have added fuel to this anti-West feeling within Pakistan.

Unless this feeling - real or perceived - is addressed attacks on embassies and foreigners, especially Europeans and Americans are likely to continue. Since attacks on foreign nationals, particularly in protected areas, have a direct impact on the legitimacy of the government, both domestically and internationally, an increase in such attacks can be expected in the coming days.