Nepal Election 2008: Rumors and Reality
22 May, 2008 · 2573
Uddhab P Pyakurel urges the political parties of Nepal to work together towards peace and democracy
The much-awaited election to the Constituent Assembly (CA) in Nepal was held on 10 April 2008. The final results were declared after two weeks, the delay was due to the simultaneous use of a mixed - First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) and Proportional Representative (PR) - electoral system. However, before the complete results were known, there was a hue and cry in Nepal and the world on the basis of the preliminary results. The Maoists played a vital role here as they started sharing their future plans and programs of the new government under Prachanda's leadership. The media also helped by broadcasting the news about a "Maoist victory". Very few people are aware that the primary results only pertain to the FPTP elections which cover only 42 per cent of the assembly seats. As such there is much confusion regarding the post election situation of Nepal, which needs to be clarified.
For the Nepalese Maoists, the CA elections do represent a victory, since their votes have increased from 4.38 per cent in 1991 to 29.28 percent in 2008. In terms of the seats won, the Maoists have now become the largest party in the CA securing 220 seats in the 601-member assembly. The Maoists, before waging their "people's war", were the third largest party with only nine seats out of the total 205 members in the then parliament. Consequent to the FPTP elections, the Maoists have secured 120 seats out of the total 240 seats.
However, if we consider the literal meaning of victory in an election, no single party has secured a majority in the Nepal assembly. At least twenty different parties are represented in the Constituent Assembly and the largest five parties have almost 90 per cent of the seats. The Maoists have secured 220 seats (36.60 per cent), which is very far from a simple majority. Nepali Congress and Nepal Communist Party-UML have secured 110 seats (18.30 per cent) and 103 seats (17.13 per cent) respectively. Two new parties from the Tarai region, the Madheshi People's Rights Forum and Tarai-Madhesh Democratic Party ranked in the 4th and 5th position.
Along with exaggerating the election results, there is more confusion about the nature and objectives of this election. Unlike a parliamentary election, which exercises the power to form and dismiss the government, these elections were for the CA, tasked with drafting a new constitution for Nepal within two years. All parties had agreed to run the country under the Interim 2007 Constitution for the next two years after holding elections to the CA; hence there is an obligation on them to work together till the proclamation of the new constitution. The interim constitution says nothing about a new government being formed after the CA elections. Hence power games are stopped for at least for two years before the new constitution comes into existence. To run the country for the time being, the interim constitution says, "The Prime Minister shall be selected by political consensus". For this consensus to be achieved, the Prime Minister must have the support of two-thirds of the members of the legislature.
But the Maoists, by disguising these facts, have started claiming that the next government will be their government under the leadership of Prachanda. The media has picked up such news without studying the constitutional provisions and agreements signed before the CA. Many people are inquiring about this new Maoist government and Prachanda's position; they assume that Prachanda will lead the post-CA election government as Nepal's first president. As the interim constitution assigns both the rights and duties of the head of state and head of government to the Prime Minister, it is ridiculous to presume that Prachanda will be the president. No doubt, the Maoists party favors a presidential system. But the NC, UML and others prefer a prime ministerial system with a titular head of state or president.
Currently the Maoists are busy meeting diplomats, industrialists, and businessmen to inform the policies and programs of the future government despite the fact that the Maoists cannot form the government alone. Again, the Maoists leaders are threatening that they may resume violence if they are not given the opportunity to lead the government. The Maoist cadres in the rural area are still intimidating those who cast their votes for other political parties. These immature activities of the Maoists lend credence to those who contend that they are yet to change their earlier tactics.
In the given situation, it seems that the future will be rather difficult for the Maoists to form the government under the leadership of Prachanda. Again, if the major parties do not work together, the situation might encourage those who want to hold back Nepal's peace and democratization process. As the Maoists party is the largest party in the CA, it is their duty to respect the people's mandate and not indulge in threatening activities but instead, take the initiative in consulting other parties to finalize the way to move forward for establishing a new democratic Nepal.