The National Assembly elections and the formation of a new democratic government in Pakistan holds the promise of a turning point in the country's politics and governance. The February election did not result in a clear majority for any single political party but the two main opposition parties, the Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), have formed a coalition government headed by a PPP nominee, Yousuf Gilani. The elections, both at the national and provincial levels, also resulted in a clear defeat for fundamentalist parties. Moreover, it signaled a clear preference among average Pakistanis for free and fair elections and their support for important civil society institutions such as the judiciary.

However, there are several cautionary factors that qualify the gains from the election.  First, it remains to be seen whether the coalition will be a shift from the failures of Pakistan's previous experiments with parliamentary democracy.Here, a key question is -who have the elections brought back to power? None other than the PPP and the PML(N)-parties that were led by discredited, corrupt individuals because of whom the average Pakistani was not opposed to Gen. Pervez Musharraf's takeover in 1999. If the same leaders, Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari, continue from where they left off a decade or so ago, the fledgling public confidence in democratic political institutions would be dented. Longterm democracy in Pakistan will take root only if the two main parties promote inner party democracy rather than treating the party as a hereditary fiefdom. The postelection tussle in the PPP for selection of the prime ministerial nominee was hardly reflective of innerparty democracy, and suggests continuing feudal and familial control of the party.

A further tussle is expected over the status of President Musharraf and the Supreme Court justices who were dismissed when emergency was imposed last November. It is unclear if the coalition has the necessary numbers in Parliament to impeach Musharraf and also if the PPP is absolutely committed to restoring the dismissed judges. Thus, the disputes underlying the opposition to the Musharraf regime remain, and till their resolution one way or the other, the fear of a deadlock in governance will remain.

It is also not clear if the new government will be any better than the Musharraf regime in combating terrorism. The fact that no political party won a clear majority could mean an unstable coalition more susceptible to pressure from hardline groups, reducing the chances of firm action against resurgent militant outfits, especially the Taliban. While the PPP and the PML(N) are firmly committed to a coalition government, it will not be surprising to expect cracks in the partnership as each party attempts to consolidate its position in anticipation of the next elections, due in 2013 (barring a midterm election or another army takeover). In such a scenario, it is hardly likely that a ruling party would take any "courageous" decisions against militant groups.

Moreover, according to recent news reports, the new civilian leaders have committed themselves to talks with militant groups, in the wake of increased suicide attacks on military and government targets in Pakistan, such as the February bombing of the Naval War College and the assassination of the general in charge of the Pakistan army's medical branch. The concern is that the lessons of the September 2006 agreement between Islamabad and the militant networks in the tribal areas might have been lost on the current political dispensation. The agreement, widely regarded as a failure, allowed militant groups to regroup while the Pakistan army stepped back from counterinsurgency operations in the hope that militant attacks would cease. But, as the events of 2007 demonstrated, such networks drastically heightened their attacks and expanded on their area of operations as well as targets.

From the Indian perspective, this issue has crucial bearing. Since 2004, a peace process has been in place between the two countries, although it has not led to any major breakthroughs. Under Musharraf, Pakistan's Kashmir policy has undergone some shifts, though the links with Kashmiri militant groups remain. The question is whether the new government in Islamabad would continue the same policy or give in to militant outfits demanding an escalation of violence. It might be remembered that militancy in Kashmir received plenty of encouragement from previous elected governments headed by the PPP and the PML.

Thus, elections in Pakistan have to be seen as a means to an end, rather than an end in itself. The 'end' refers to rolling back militant networks in the country, strengthening safeguards against nuclear proliferation, and maintaining the roughly 6.5 per cent economic growth in recent years while also ensuring that the benefits of this growth reach the more deprived sections. This is a tall order, indeed and means that the February elections are merely the beginning of a long road toward normalcy.