On 2 January 2008, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) postponed national elections from 8 January to 18 February. Why were the elections postponed and what have the reactions of major players been?

In its notification, the ECP has cited the law and order situation as the main reason for the postponement, as the offices of Election Commissioners in certain districts of Sindh had been set on fire, destroying the electoral rolls, transparent ballot boxes and voting screens. In addition, the violence had affected logistics and the training of polling personnel. The ECP note also mentioned that the Chief Secretaries and Provincial Election Commissioners of the four provinces had confirmed that the law and order situation was not conducive for conducting elections on 8 January.

Undoubtedly, there was large-scale violence in Pakistan. Some of the leading newspapers in their editorials and even the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) have underlined the security situation in an emotionally-charged atmosphere. However Violence has been largely limited to Sindh, that too in select districts, especially Karachi. There were violent incidents also in Punjab, but these soon subsided. The ECP could have organized elections in phases, with elections postponed only in those districts that were hit by violence. In retrospect, it appears that the ECP was only looking for an excuse to postpone elections and that it is only following the orders of the President and of the PML-Q.

An election on the originally scheduled date was certainly not in the interests of the PML-Q. Public anger against Musharraf and PML-Q and the popular sympathy for the PPP would have acted as a decisive factor in favour of the latter, if the elections were to take place on 8 January. According to a survey carried out by the Daily Times, a large number of Pakistanis were against the postponement of the general elections. Many who were interviewed have denounced the postponement, calling it a move "to nullify people's sympathies for the Pakistan People's Party and to benefit the outgoing rulers." Clearly, the decision to postpone the elections by Musharraf and PML-Q is political and not based on major security reasons. The ECP's approval of the same only shows its lack of independence.

The PPP had not only decided to take part in election but was ready to face it according to the original schedule. The reasons are not difficult to fathom. As mentioned above, there is popular anger against Musharraf and PML-Q, in addition to the large sympathy wave for the PPP. Ejaz Haider, a leading columnist and editor of the Daily Times commented that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto would allow the PPP to garner more support even outside its traditional strongholds and allow it to consolidate the floating vote, which in his calculation is around thirty per cent of the total vote. In this case, the PPP would be able to form the government not only at the national level, but stake claims in the provincial assemblies as well.

The PML-N, led by Nawaz Sharif, though it had announced boycotting of the elections in the immediate aftermath of Benazir's assassination, changed its stand, once the PPP decided to take part in the elections. While Nawaz Sharif's PML-N is less likely to get the benefit of the sympathy wave for Benazir Bhutto, he could have used the anti-regime feelings, especially in Punjab in favour of his party. Postponing the election will give more time for the PML-Q and Musharraf to engage in political maneuverings in Punjab, which may not be in the interests of the PML-N.

The real issue however is, whether postponing will ensure a free, fair and transparent election. Given Musharraf's record since he took over power in 1999 and the ECP's willingness to go along with him, this question assumes more importance than the postponement itself. On the positive side, it undoubtedly gives more time to the political parties, especially the PPP, which has announced a forty-days mourning for its assassinated leader. The delay, in fact, may also give some time for the leading political parties - PML-N and PPP to reach an understanding. It is also likely that the popularity graphs for Musharraf and PML-Q are only going to decline further, helping both the PPP and PML-N.