The 2008 US presidential election season commences with the caucuses in Iowa on 3 January 2008. History reveals that in earlier presidential nomination processes, both parties had a front-runner, the establishment's choice with a commanding lead in the organization polls, followed by a strong challenger and multiple dark-horse candidates. This has especially, been the case with the Republicans. What is defining the 2008 cycle is that there is no front-runner in either party.

Complicating the situation is the extreme front-loading of the primary election calendar, which is the term describing the phenomena of US states advancing their original primary dates to an earlier date to acquire influence on the nominating process. In 2004, Iowa caucuses were held on 19 January but this year, many states have advanced their primary dates to early January and 5 February, most notably South Carolina Republicans and Nevada Democrats to 19 January, Michigan to 15 January, prompting New Hampshire to schedule its primary in 8 January and Iowa to 3 January. Incidentally, the state law of New Hampshire stipulates that their primary date be at least one week ahead of any subsequent primaries.

Since there is no 'national primary' and different states vote on different dates, convincing wins in the early-voting states gives a candidate momentum and media exposure to sweep the later states in the road to nomination. No candidate in modern history, except Bill Clinton, who did not win in Iowa or New Hampshire, ever went on to win his parties' nomination.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton once appeared to be invincible in the polls and her crowning as the Democratic nominee was portrayed by the media and political pundits as inevitable. But every public poll in early voting states reflects an incredibly competitive and unpredictable contest. John Edwards, Senator Clinton and Senator Barack Obama are virtually tied in Iowa. The latest McClatchy-MSNBC poll reveals that Edwards is leading with 24% votes; Clinton and Obama have 23% each. The latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll reveals a dead heat in New Hampshire between Clinton and Obama, the latter leading with 32% over 30% for Clinton.

A Hillary Clinton win in Iowa would effectively end the contest and hand her the nomination since it would invigorate the sense of inevitability marking the former First Lady. However, an Obama or Edwards win in Iowa would definitely protract the nomination battle to at least 5 February, called Super-Duper Tuesday since a large number of states would vote on the same day, including delegate-heavy big states like California and New York. John Edwards has deep-rooted support and organizational strength in Iowa where he must win to have any chance at securing the nomination.

The Republicans are also experiencing the most chaotic nomination fight since World War II with five candidates having different but equally likely paths to the nomination. One-time frontrunners Senators John McCain (Arizona) and Fred Thompson (former senator from Tennessee and actor), former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have squandered away their commanding leads nationally and in important early-voting states. Different polls in the early voting states indicate leads for different candidates. In Iowa, former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee, has seen his recent lead in the polls give way to a statistical tie with Mitt Romney. The new Reuters-Zogby tracking poll shows Huckabee and Romney in a statistical tie with 27.7% and 26.6% respectively.

However Romney, given his vast personal fortune and organizational strength in the early states, enjoys the clearest path to nomination, with hopes of riding a back-to-back win in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani, despite having dismal poll numbers in early states is banking on a win in Florida on 29 January, where he is exceptionally strong, and then to exploit his universal name recognition and newfound momentum to sweep the big states on 5 February. John McCain is betting on wins in New Hampshire and Michigan (where he had beat George W. Bush in the 2000 primaries) to find the elusive momentum to the nomination. Huckabee is depending on convincing wins in Iowa and South Carolina to sweep the large bloc of Southern states voting on 5 February.

It is entirely possible that the nomination fight may be prolonged until the Convention in late August if no candidate has a clear advantage by end February. This is a plausible scenario for the Republicans. But if Hillary Clinton fails to win two states out of Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire, then it would be a long and expensive slog for the Democratic nomination. It remains to be seen whether both party establishments, the powers that be, and for the Republicans, the White House, would allow this unpredictability to prevail till the Conventions.