China fired a salvo recently by pronouncing the exploration rights to blocks 127 and 128 given to ONGC by Vietnam in 2006 as illegal. A diplomatic demarche was issued by the Chinese Embassy in Delhi. The rights allow for exploration of gas which could be used for electricity generation in southern Vietnam.

This Chinese declaration has come as a frontal attack against India's pursuit of energy security. Till recently China's approach has been soft power diplomacy through engagement in the South China Sea Cooperation Declaration and asking for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. With the construction plans of an airstrip by Taiwan in Itu Aba, one of the Spratlys Islands under its occupation, there are fears that Vietnam might follow suit. Vietnam controls more than twenty islands or islets and has been active in tourism and also seismic data and oil potential analysis. The strategic centrality of South China Sea as well as enhanced relations between Vietnam and India and between Vietnam and US has led to the stance adopted by China. Already the US has started making temporary bases for its soldiers supporting Philippines armed forces against their fight in highly restive Mindanao. Therefore, China wants to assert its claim on the South China Sea after the 1996 Taiwan Straits Crisis and the Mischief reef incident. But, if oil has been the major issue of concern then it has been asserted by many explorers and energy analysts that there is not much oil in these waters and if the exploration costs are high, it would not make it a feasible venture.

China's soft power diplomacy was initiated in the early 1990s and led to mending fences with countries like Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia. China is offering economic incentives to both Philippines and Vietnam, by first persuading them to undertake joint exploration in the South China Sea and next through enhancing trade with both countries. The thumb rule is that China wants to have leverage with these countries by allowing them access to their market and link them to Chinese economic growth. The activity of China should also be seen as a check and balance mechanism to see the repercussion with regard to small steps like the claiming sovereignty over the two disputed archipelagos through the establishment of symbolic administrative region called Sansha. A status quo power wants to assert its hegemony in the South China Sea and is testing the waters along its southern coast.

Can one then claim that the calm waters in the strategic sphere have been disturbed? To a large extent the answer would be negative. But China may be also turning its attention towards Southeast Asia when the Iran fixation of US has been resolved to a certain extent and Washington might then look to assert its hegemonic role in Southeast Asia. The issue of Chinese sovereignty in South China Sea has been disputed by the other claimant countries but the important strategic move made by China is to claim the Exclusive Economic Zone which might be extended to more than 200 nautical miles in future. In that case if China's sovereignty through de facto occupation is accepted then it would control major energy supply sea lanes to Japan and South Korea. This move would marginalise US presence in the Philippines and also would safeguard China's strategic interests in the region.

One realist hypothesis is that China would not face much of a confrontation in case it asserts its sovereignty and even the US might not interfere as was the case during the Chinese occupation of Paracels in 1974.Of late, China has been conducting a number of naval exercises in the region which showcase its naval might to possible adversaries like Vietnam and Taiwan. The Chinese assertion on ONGC drilling and exploration activities in South China Sea means that China wants that either the other claimant countries should work in tandem with Chinese interests or they leave the exploration to China only. China is sharpening its teeth for resource security especially in terms of energy security. One can say that China is bullying countries like India which have been too complacent on protecting their interests when China gets involved.

In case of China asserting its sovereignty over the islands within its control, as well as beyond, it would have a major strategic leverage vis-à-vis major powers in the region as well as beyond it. India has been hit hard by such a claim but China is hitting India's soft belly at will and India should do something serious about it. China is a growing economy and there is no denying this fact but the time has come for India to assert itself in verbal terms about its own strategic interests. India has grown and should lodge a protest on this even if it means making strong remarks on this issue.