The political crisis in Myanmar has topped the agenda at talks between leaders of the Southeast Asian nations and the European Union meeting in Singapore. The group, meeting for an annual summit, renewed international calls for the military junta to release pro-democracy prisoners but set no deadline for action. The gathering came at the end of a four day meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), where the 10 member nations tabled a new charter enshrining principles of democracy and human rights.

The UN general assembly's human rights committee overwhelmingly passed a resolution condemning the September crackdown and calling for the release of all political prisoners in Myanmar. Myanmar's military rulers launched a bloody crackdown on the anti-government protests in September, leaving at least 15 people dead and an unknown number in jail. The crackdown was seen as an embarrassment for ASEAN, and the group has faced growing international pressure to become a force for change in the country. But ASEAN has been very supportive of the regime and reluctant to adopt sanctions or make official statements, because of Myanmar's membership of ASEAN.

China has also called on Myanmar to step up its democratic reforms. It is considered an unusual move for Beijing, which has traditionally refrained from criticizing the country's military government. Beijing also expressed support for the UN-brokered attempts to reconcile the government and the country's suppressed democracy movement led by Aung San Suu Kyi, the detained opposition leader. China, Myanmar's main political ally, has traditionally held the position of strict non-interference in the country's internal affairs.

The Indian Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh met his Myanmarese counterpart Thein Sein and urged him to restore normalcy. The Indian Prime Minister conveyed that the reform process in Myanamar should be broad-based, and should include the key opposition leader Aung Suu Kyi along with other leaders and representatives of various ethnic nationalities.

The socioeconomic condition of Myanamar is very disturbing. More than 60,000 Burmese, out of an estimated population of 50 million, are in some sort of forced labor, and AIDS is ravishing the country ferociously. In recent years, the flow of people out of Myanmar has become one of Southeast Asia's largest migration movements. Thousands are thought to have gone south to Malaysia. Others have gone north to India and China, while more than 200,000 of the Rohingya minority group live in Bangladesh to the west. But by far the biggest group - two million people, according to most estimates - has headed east to Thailand. Thousands of civilians have been compelled to leave their villages, as part of a strategy to cut off support to armed opposition groups.

Restoration of democracy in Myanmar has much to do with the external factors. India's earlier primary condition for Myanmar was the restoration of democracy. But this policy got changed, seeing the expanding role of China in Myanmar. India sees Myanmar as a critical gateway for linking its northeast with a dynamic, extended neighbourhood. India has also been seeking greater Trans Border cooperation with Myanmar in dealing with insurgency in the northeast. Almost all of India's seven northeastern states are troubled by nagging separatist movements, and Delhi is banking on the junta to chase out the Myanmar-based rebels. So India has so far refrained from condemning the military crackdown on the democracy movement, and has rather called for negotiations for a phased return to democracy in Myanmar.

China has key strategic interests in the stability of Myanmar and, accordingly, strong ties with Rangoon. This has prompted the Indian government to seek stronger ties of its own with Myanmar's military regime in order to counter-balance China's growing influence. It is Myanmar's energy resources - oil and off-shore gas fields - that make it such an attractive partner for Russian, Chinese, Indian and even South Korean firms.

Any democratic transition requires sustained international pressure from China, India and Russia. The US and EU sanctions that are already in place have undoubtedly affected Myanmar's overall economy, but have failed to inflict much harm to the rich military generals, who are busy making deals with the rest of Asia. Plenty of observers are convinced, with good reason, that the military government is simply buying time in the hope that the international attention will drift elsewhere. In the meantime, the authorities can push ahead with their own "seven-stage roadmap" to what they refer to as "discipline-flourishing democracy" - a slow, deeply controversial process.

Myanmar's political future is at the crossroads. The country's top two military rulers, Than Shwe and Maung Aye, are in no mood to restore democracy in Myanmar. Restoration of democracy, therefore, lies with the Chinese initiatives. India has been a vocal supporter of restoration of democracy in Myanmar. If China pressurizes the two generals, things will change accordingly, for China exercises considerable influence on the generals. So, it is the right time to take on the junta for democratic reforms. Building China-India cooperation can play a major role in Myanmar. The venerated monks of Myanmar are determined to oust the military regime and they need enough external support to be successful.