Report of Seminar held at the IPCS on 18 September 2007

Chair:
Amb Eric Gonsalves

Panelists:
Mr Soe Myint, Editor, Mizzima News
Prof Baladas Ghoshal, Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research
Prof Man Mohini Kaul, Associate Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University

Introductory Remarks: Eric Gonsalves

India has neglected Myanmar for quite some time and it should reestablish its knowledge of and contacts with this neighbouring country as it was in the past during the era of Pandit Nehru and U Nu. In this context, the most pertinent question is of how to deal with the sociopolitical problems of Myanmar as it concerns India as well. There is also a need to formulate a political and strategic policy towards the country since Myanmar holds enormous importance for India's security.

Myanmar Today, Recent Developments: Soe Myint

The protests in Myanmar that have been on since 19 August 2007 have been the biggest anti-junta movement in a decade. The huge fuel prices hike by the government without any prior warning sparked the protests but there were other causes as well such as the anger against economic mismanagement, protest against political repression, resentment over rampant corruption, loss of confidence in the SPDC's Roadmap for Democracy and finally overall discontent with the SPDC's misrule of nearly two decades.

Several possible factors can be traced to the fuel price hike. China is pressurizing the Myanmarese government to move towards economic liberalization and privatization. The government also wants to privatize the fuel distribution system. The budgetary crisis caused by the building of Naypyidaw, the new capital and the recommendations by the IMF/World Bank to reduce government fuel subsidies, could be other possible factors. Finally, to crack down on 88 Students Generation Group and pro-democracy activists and avoid cutting of government and military expenditures are also possible reasons.

The Myanmarese people are extremely impoverished as around 75 per cent of the population live in poverty and between 60 to 80 per cent of the monthly income is spent on food with nothing left for health, education and social expenses. Myanmar has ample natural gas, but the government is selling it off to other countries.

The peoples' protest is led by the 88 Generation Group most consistently; presently, however, most of them are in detention. The protesters come from different groups including Myanmar Development Committee, NLD members, and the Nationalist U Win Naing and his group, Democracy Development Committee. Interestingly, some Left-leaning Buddhist monks are also deeply involved. Notably, the protests till now remain limited in numbers and the majority of the people are watching instead of participating. Because of this reason the government has been able to crackdown on the leaders. In fact, the government has until now, used very little force, unlike in the 1988 protests.

The USDA, also known as the "White Shirts," is becoming a very important player in Myanmarese society. Established in 1993 by Senior Gen. Than Shwe as a social welfare organization, nearly half of the population are its members. The USDA, apart from participating in the government- sponsored programmes, indulges in attacking pro-democracy activists. It also has official relationships with countries in ASEAN as well as with China.

The immediate effects of the current crisis will be more economic refugees fleeing to neighboring countries, including India and Thailand, domestic instability in Burma and as a result growing pressure on communities to engage in illicit activities for their survival. This has repercussion for the neighbouring countries. Ultimately the crisis would lead to possible renewal of armed conflicts with ethnic groups and a move further away from democracy.

There has been widespread outcry largely from the western countries. The UN has asked the government to move towards national reconciliation and start an inclusive dialogue to take in all the relevant political actors in the country. The UN Special Envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, has been holding consultative meetings with several ASEAN members, Myanmar's neighbours India and China, and some western countries. The 'Burma issue' was taken up at the UN Security Council twice and in a January 2007 resolution, China and Russia vetoed the resolution. Interestingly South Africa also voted against the resolution.

China is very concerned with what is happening in Myanmar, however and has stated that it hopes that the Myanmarese Government will listen to the call of its own people and speed up the democratic process. There are reports that China has been silently putting pressure on the junta to make changes particularly economic changes and follow up on the Roadmap for Democracy.

Where does India stand? India's response has been two-fold. The Indian government has been silent over Myanmar's recent protest stating 'non-interference' as the cardinal principle of its foreign policy. On the other hand, Indian public support for the Myanmarese people is overwhelming.

The civil society and the political actors in Myanmar are disappointed with the response from the Indian government. This is definitely not a very good sign for the future of India-Myanmar relations.

Myanmar Viewed from India: Baladas Ghoshal

Despite the fact that several years of military rule have impoverished Myanmar, its people have not lost their sense of dignity. India lacks a strategic vision towards Myanmar. It seems that Myanmar is a distant neighbour to India since India's absence in the country is sadly apparent despite its indelible similarities between the two cultural and social systems.

There are three reasons that have pushed India to shift its policy towards Myanmar since 1993 - Myanmar's function as a bridge between India and Southeast Asia, it is importance to the security of India's northeast and the rising influence of China. If India has to reinvent its links with Southeast Asia, India's northeast is the point of 'linkage' where cultural affinities actually exist. However, it has to be noted that India's cultural linkages with Southeast Asia are found at the super-structure or the elite level while the grassroots level in Southeast Asia has more Chinese characteristics.

The perception in India that if bridges are built between northeast India and Myanmar then this would help the Chinese to further extend their influence into the region, has begun to change. The northeast insurgency has been ongoing for over forty years and not much progress has been made so far. The possible solution to this question could be opening up the entire region. If communication links are opened up in the northeast region and Myanmar, it would facilitate trade and commerce resulting in larger stakes in economic development. People do not go for insurgency if there is a stake in economic development. Tourism is a major thrust in the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation (MGC) and India must promote tourism between the two countries. Besides, without Myanmarese help India cannot deal with the insurgency problem in the northeast region.

Another important facet in the relationship is the influence of China in Myanmar. Unlike India, China has better border-trade facilities with Myanmar. These factors help China to penetrate deeper into Myanmar. Sectors like pharmaceuticals could play an important role in boosting India-Myanmar cooperation. However, in the present situation, India has failed to capitalize on its relations with Myanmar whether in economic or strategic terms or in ensuring energy security.

There are many things India can do in Myanmar. Despite the talk of promoting democracy which India seems to ignore at present, there are areas like education and starting English learning programmes that can contribute positively to the relationship. The time has come for India to prepare a proper roadmap for improving relations with Myanmar taking into account all eventualities in Myanmar's political future.

Myanmar Policy and Sub-Regional Engagements: Man Mohini Kaul

China has a strong stranglehold on Myanmar and India has lost to China to a great extent. During the 1988 crackdown on pro-democratic forces by the Myanmarese junta, India supported the latter groups wholeheartedly. In fact, India was the only regional country to implement a clear policy towards Myanmarese refugees.

However, India's concern about encirclement by China and its surrogates prompted it to later renounce support for pro-democratic aspirations in Myanmar and move towards a more realistic path. From March 1993, India took a clear position of supporting the Myanmarese generals. In effect, India plays down any leadership role of promoting democracy around the world as the US desires India to play.

Sub-regional organizations like BIMSTEC, the MGC could be important measures for promoting relations with Myanmar. The Bay of Bengal Community sub-regional forum, propagated by Sanjaya Baru is another such initiative presently in the pipeline. In the MGC, the emphasis is on developing the infrastructure for ensuring better connectivity.

Why is India focusing on sub-regional set-ups? India needs to find a better alternative to the dysfunctional SAARC. The importance of the region and the need for greater connectivity between India's northeast and ASEAN countries are the factors responsible for importance of sub-regional forums. However, expansion in memberships of these sub-regional initiatives could end up seriously hampering their growth.

Myanmar continues to remain an enigma. There are rifts in the Myanmarese junta although the rifts have so far been under control. However, India needs to have a global vision in conformity with its emerging status.

DISCUSSION

Myanmar is the most important country for India within ASEAN. Apart from security interests, economics and energy security dimensions, Myanmar can be a bridge to Southeast Asia. Although the recent pro-democracy protests across the country should not be underestimated, yet the demonstrations are minor and unless the Myanmarese people can themselves develop this into a mass movement similar to the case in Nepal, transition in Myanmar in the coming years seems unlikely.

India needs Myanmar's support to flush out the insurgents in the northeast, as these miscreants often take refuge on Myanmar's soil. Therefore, whosoever comes to power in Myanmar needs to be engaged by the Indian government irrespective of sensitive issues concerning human rights violations and the suppression of democratic aspirations.

India needs to have a strategic vision to deal with Myanmar. This vision must have 'economics' as its thrust and should ensure India's long term interests in Myanmar.

India's northeastern region suffers from energy deficiency and the Indochina region, particularly Laos, has excess of electricity supplies. India can engage with this region to ensure electricity supply to its northeast and bring Myanmar into the cooperative fold, thus extending their bilateral relations beyond the strategic and security imperatives.

Concluding Remarks

Connectivity is the most fundamental element in India's relations with its neighbours. India's highest decision-makers have so far limited attempts to build and improve border roads. However, this has limited the free-flow of border trade. India's northeast insurgency problem cannot be resolved unless there is economic development and open border trade. Meanwhile, the Indian government and civil society have failed to come out with a proper agenda for Myanmar. Despite this, the latter has largely been supportive of Myanmarese pro-democratic agitations and continues to sympathize with Aung San Suu Kyi and press for her release.