The NATO has categorically stated that it views the Spring Offensive launched by the Taliban this year as a failure. However, this has led to the rise of an alarming phenomenon - growing insurgency in the Afghan capital, Kabul. Earlier, the ISAF forces were fighting Taliban forces mostly in the south of the country. Guerilla tactics and suicide attacks were being employed in Uruzgan, Helmand, Khost, Paktia and Kandahar.

But the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan appears to have shifted tactics incorporating techniques used in the insurgency in Iraq. In addition to resorting to suicide bombs, the Taliban has begun burning schools and targeting local government employees. Worst hit was Kabul where, on 17 June, a suicide bomber blew up a police academy bus in Kabul killing 35 people and wounding 52. The Taliban has claimed responsibility for the attacks, further stating that the capital was the next main target of the Taliban.

In an interview with the BBC, Taliban spokesperson Zabiyullah Mujahed said, "It is true we are increasing our pressure on Kabul, because Kabul is the capital city and the foreign troops are concentrated there" (BBC News, 21 June 2007). Further, he points out that NATO troops were successful in infiltrating the Taliban ranks and had killed some of its most important leaders like Mullah Dadullah (killed by American troops in May 2007). This is turn has led to a spate of attacks and suicide bombings. This has come in addition to the heavy fighting in the south, making 2007 so far the bloodiest year since the Taliban was ousted in 2001.

The government and the foreign coalitions, however, seem unmoved by these developments, even going as far as claiming that the Taliban was losing support. Afghan Defence Minister Abdel Rahim Wardak says, "At the moment you see the tides are turning in our favour, the Taliban have failed to materialize their so called spring offensive, they have failed to isolate Kabul or to cut highways or to expand their area of influence". But statistics beg to differ - 90 foreign troops have gone down so far this year and civilian casualties are numerous.

The Taliban strategy is moving away from its earlier emphasis on encircling and taking out an area from ISAF control. It is now concentrating on finding its way into Kabul and destroying the city from the inside. This tactic involves the use of suicide bombers and gunmen targeting civilians- as Zabiyullah claims, there is no dearth of people enlisting to blow themselves up in this battle. This tactic requires lesser fighters and gives the Taliban the advantage of unpredictability. It also takes away the edge that coalition troops have in using air power or other techniques as they are unsuitable for fighting within the city.

President Karzai is of the view that Taliban's renewed strategy is a result of its frustration at the development and effectiveness of the Afghan National Army. He suggests that earlier the Taliban had only the foreign troops to counter, but as Afghan police and army forces are gaining strength, the Taliban is losing its sang froid. Karzai seems keen on underplaying the Taliban's strength, instead arguing that it is the government's weakness in Kabul that gives the Taliban a temporary edge - an advantage that will wear out soon as the Afghan army and police stabilize (International Herald Tribune, 19 June 2007).

Increasingly, however, the renewed Taliban activity is of concern to the coalition forces. Despite the Afghan Government's statements, fingers are being pointed towards both Iran and Pakistan. American Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Under Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns have pointed out on their trips to the country that there is suspicion that Iran might be supplying arms to fuel the insurgency. President Karzai has denied such allegations, instead referring to Iran as a "close friend".

Admiral William Fallon, the Chief of the US Central Command, recently visited Pakistan for meetings with President General Pervez Musharraf and other senior members of the military. US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte has also been in Islamabad. Instead of cracking down on Pakistan, the US wants to control the infiltration through its borders, especially in the tribal areas in the north. The Taliban has several command centers in Pakistan, including in North Waziristan and South Waziristan, Bajur, Noshki and Chaman, leading to cross border reinforcements of Taliban troops.

As fresh recruits come in from the eastern border and weapon supplies infiltrate through the western border, the situation in Kabul might get out of hand. This will place the already fragile government in a precarious situation. So far, much has been said about how President Karzai's government doesn't exert control outside the confines of Kabul city. If the Taliban succeeds, the government might find it hard to stand its ground even within the capital.