With the formation of the Jabha-i-Mili or National Front and a change in Taliban's strategy, the situation in Afghanistan has suddenly turned fluid. Its potential for creating further trouble for the embattled Hamid Karzai is considerable as also for instability in the country.

The National Front consists of members of parliament, members of the Karzai cabinet, former mujahideen and communist leaders with former president Burhanuddin Rabani as its head. It is believed that the grouping has strong backing from Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan and Russia. It is surprising that Pakistan is attempting to support Taliban while simultaneously supporting another group with a history of being anti-Taliban. Perhaps Islamabad's true motive may lie in undermining Karzai's rule whatever be the cost or method. Karzai has never failed to highlight Pakistan's duplicity in its war against terror and its support to the Taliban. As far as Musharraf is concerned, it is perhaps pay-back time.

Of late, Karzai has also been talking to 'moderate Taliban' in order to achieve political accommodation with them. Pakistan has been a strong advocate of reconciling with the Taliban and has frequently advised the US to accommodate moderate Taliban in the power structure at Kabul. Pakistan's strategic interests would be well served if it can prevail upon the international community to install a Taliban government beholden to it. However, Karzai reaching an accord on his own with the 'moderate Taliban' may upset Pakistan's applecart. The interest of Pakistan's military government lies in keeping a weak and radical government in Afghanistan amenable to Pakistani influence since a strong, stable and prosperous Afghanistan would always remain a motivating factor for Pashtoon and Balochi nationalism. A nationalistic government in Kabul is unlikely to agree to the controversial Durand Line as the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The new alliance, is apparently, in favour of recognizing the Durand Line. Another important point included in the National Front's manifesto pertains to changing the current presidential form of system to a parliamentary form of government. Thus, the emergence of two groups with pro- and anti-Karzai leanings may spell trouble for Karzai in the next elections. Further, in this political game, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hezb-i-Islami that commands the allegiance of 40 MPs becomes an important swing player to be wooed. Hekmatyar, however, is known for switching sides many times between various factions during the history of the Afghan struggle.

Another worrying factor has been the slow progress of Operation Achilles launched by NATO in southern Afghanistan to preempt the expected Taliban spring offensive. Taliban have continued to rule the roost in Musa Qala district of Helmand province since the winter of 2006 and the Khahk-i-Afghan district of Zabul province has also fallen to them. Some degree of success was achieved by NATO when they made the Taliban flee from Sangin district of Helmand. However, the Taliban stressed that they were vacating the area temporarily so as not to cause damage to property that is the standing opium crop.

The Taliban have also realized that kidnapping pays. Following the kidnapping of an Italian journalist in March the Italian government was in the throes of a major crisis and it was feared that Italy could withdraw its NATO contingent of 1950 troops. Karzai released five Taliban prisoners in exchange for the Italian journalist but refused to bargain for the Afghan translator. Taliban claimed victory in both cases with the Afghan translator being beheaded further alienating Karzai's government from the already disillusioned ordinary public. Later, in the second week of April, the Taliban kidnapped two French aid workers and 13 Afghans for obtaining release of more Talibans under Afghan custody.

NATO's fatalities have also been rising with 44 soldiers killed since beginning of this year taking the total in Operation Enduring Freedom to 560 so far. Wealthy western societies remain sensitive to the loss of life and the Afghan operation is exerting a negative impact on them. This has resulted in weakening of the commitment of NATO nations to the Afghan cause. Even though the Taliban may have lost more of its personnel in the current conflict, it has become a battle-hardened organization not unduly perturbed by the mounting loss of life. The Taliban have sought to capitalize on this western vulnerability by launching an increasing number of suicide bombings and ambushes against NATO troops. One of the main elements of Taliban's strategy is thus; to attack the political will of NATO countries.

The sledgehammer tactics of American and NATO forces have contributed further to alienating the Afghan people and moving them closer to the Taliban. A US military investigation has indicated that more than 40 Afghans killed or wounded by Marines after a suicide bombing in a village near Jalalabad last month were civilians. On 5 March, nine members of a single family died when a US warplane bombed a house in the Kapisa province to the north of Kabul.

There are no indicators to suggest that political and security situation in Afghanistan has improved. It is also certain that as long as NATO and the US troops are present in Afghanistan, the Taliban and its sponsors cannot win. How long the former will stay the course however, remains uncertain.