The Pyongyang Deal - Should Tehran or Islamabad Be Next?

23 Feb, 2007    ·   2215

Rohit Pattnaik examines the North Korean accord and its significance for the nuclear programs of Iran and Pakistan


The six-party deal in Beijing is an important step in dealing with the North Korean nuclear problem. It marks the first steps towards disarmament in more than three years of negotiations. North Korea's agreement to close its nuclear reactor in exchange for a $400 million aid package including fuel, food and other items from the United States, China, South Korea and Russia is significant. Japan has refused to provide aid to North Korea due to its dispute with North Korea over the abduction of Japanese citizens.

Amidst bitter memories of the failure of the 1994 agreement, suspicions linger that North Korea had managed to blackmail successfully, the other parties to the talks into an agreement without any clear indication that it would give up its nuclear weapons. The official North Korean news agency has only stated that North Korea has agreed to a "temporary suspension" of its nuclear facilities. The current agreement resembles the deal under the Clinton administration in 1994, in requiring North Korea to "freeze" its Yongbon operations and allowing inspections. The new agreement envisions North Korea giving up its nuclear material ultimately like the old agreement, the major difference is that the United States has more partners in this deal like China, Russia, South Korea and Japan. To prevent North Korea from reneging after receiving aid as it did the last time, further aid will be offered only after it has disabled its equipment in Yongbon and declared where it has concealed its nuclear fuel and other nuclear facilities.

Though the deal does allow the return of IAEA inspectors who were expelled in 2002, there are no specifics regarding the investigation of North Korea's uranium enrichment programme. The agreement sets a 60-day deadline for North Korea for taking the first steps towards disarmament and leaves the difficult part of actual removal of its nuclear weapons and the fuel manufactured to a later date. Further negotiations are to begin on 19 March in Beijing.

Ensuring North Korea's compliance will prove arduous given that it has breached previous agreements by starting a uranium-based weapons program with help from Pakistan even as it froze its plutonium-based program. Under the agreement, the US will begin the process of ending trade sanctions and embark on talks aimed at resolving disputes and restarting diplomatic relations. Technically, the two nations are at war as no accord has been signed since the end of hostilities in 1953.

North Korea has agreed to eschew testing as long as it remains satisfied with the diplomatic process. The US has managed to extract its willingness to negotiate on a quid pro quo, which requires dismantling of its weapons. The North Korean leadership clearly understands that it would be signing its death warrant by implementing verifiable disarmament and a rollback of its nuclear weapons program. Nuclear bombs are North Korea's guarantor for economic assistance and regime survival. Pyongyang's tarnished image of being a peddler of nuclear hardware has guaranteed that trade-offs will occur so long as it retains nuclear hardware.

The Bush administration had previously included the North Korean regime in its "axis of evil" states and its pragmatism in finally negotiating with the North Koreans is a sign that it is willing to deal with nuclear pariahs. The Iranians will be watching these developments and the conclusions that they must have drawn from the negotiations with the North Koreans compared to the fate that befell the Iraqi regime is anybody's guess. The refusal of the US government to negotiate with the Iranians will only heighten their paranoia regarding US policies to deal with their nuclear program.

Pakistan is one nation that has managed to elude the US nuclear proliferation crackdown despite it having the dubious tag of a "Nuclear Bazaar," since all proliferation roads lead to Pakistan. The US has received only assurances from the Pakistani regime about the measures taken by it to secure its nuclear weapons programme. In addition, Pakistan has failed to proceed against nuclear scientist A Q Khan who was in charge of the cartel to export its nuclear ware. The US has however, offered billions of dollars in economic aid and military hardware to Pakistan to assist the US in its war against terror. It will need to take a hard look at Pakistan's record, and perhaps offer similar sops to Pakistan to rollback its nuclear weapons programme and avoid nightmare scenarios emerging like the Al Qaeda getting its hands on nukes.

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