Militancy in the Jammu region has come down drastically in the last four years; it is believed that only about 30 to 40 militants are active today in the two districts of Poonch and Rajouri, with their bases mainly in Mendhar and Surankote tehsils. What factors have led to the decline of militancy in these two districts? Why has it declined here, while it still continues in the Kashmir Valley?

Rajouri and Poonch are two districts adjoining Jammu, sharing the LoC with Pakistan occupied Kashmir, with Bhimber, Mirpur, Kotli and Rawlakote on the other side. The giant Pir Panjal range separates these two districts from the Kashmir Valley, both geographically and ethnically. Most of the people living on the south of the Pir Panjal in these two districts are Pahari-speaking Muslims and Hindus. They do not speak Kashmiri and have much less in common with the Kashmir Valley in terms of history, culture and even eating habits. One would hardly encounter the much famed Wazwan of the Kashmir Valley in these two regions. The non-use of the old Mughal route, which used to cut through the Pir Panjal via Rajouri, Bafliaz and then to Sophiyan in Kashmir Valley has restricted the physical and emotional connections. The other route, connecting Poonch with Uri in Kashmir Valley via Haji Pir has also been cut, as a stretch of 35kms is now under the occupation of Pakistan. The Pir Panjal, today also divides the people politically. Except the National Conference, none of the other Valley groups and parties, including the PDP and the Hurriyat, have any substantial presence in Rajouri and Poonch districts.

This divide has been the main reason for the decline of militancy in these two districts. While the Muslim population of Rajouri and Poonch initially sympathized with the cause of azadi and backed the militancy, that support could not be sustained for the lack of physical, economic, cultural and political connections. As the militant movement became violent, the fault lines became apparent, leading to the decline.

Second, the substantial presence of minority communities and the history of their living together have also contributed to the decline of militancy in these two districts. Besides the Muslims, these two districts also have Hindus and Sikhs, who have lived here for a long time. Unlike the Kashmiri Pandits of the Valley, these minority groups stayed back in these districts. There were migrations in the last ten years, but there was no exodus, as happened in the 1990s in the Valley. The presence of the "other" and the confidence in each other added to the communal harmony in these two districts.

Third, when compared to Rajouri and Poonch districts, the number of divided families in the Kashmir Valley is negligible. Invariably, all of the divided families belong to Rajouri, Kotli, Mirpur and Poonch on both sides of the LoC. This is the main reason for the bus service between Srinagar and Muzafarabad not eliciting much enthusiasm in the Kashmir Valley. Srinagar, Sopore, Anantnag and Pulwama areas are not as passionate about the bus service as Kupwara and Baramulla. However, the bus service across the LoC between Poonch and Rawlakote is the most popular event these days in these two districts. Violence in this part of the LoC in these two districts did affect the divided families across the LoC but the people were sympathetic to the cause not to violence and deaths.

Fourth, owing to the above reasons, the Hizbul Mujahideen, the "Kashmiri" militant group could not attract much support from the youths of this region. As militancy progressed, the support and recruitment to the Hizbul came only from the Kashmir Valley and perhaps also from the Doda region, but not from these two districts. Today, there are no Hizbul militants here and the lack of local presence has to be supplemented by sending foreign militants, mainly Pakistanis belonging to the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad. In the last few years, the presence of foreign militants and the forcible recruitment of the local youths has only hastened the decline of militancy.

Fifth, the reorganization of security forces and able police leadership has played an important role in reducing militancy in this region. Young and dynamic police officers have not only maintained communal harmony through their deft and personal handling of the situation, but have also built up a better rapport with the para-military and military forces, leading to better counter-insurgency operations. For these reasons, unlike in Kashmir Valley, one will also not hear of many human rights violations in these two districts.

Finally, the fencing of the LoC by the Indian government and the Indo-Pak peace process have also helped the decline in inflow of militants. In the last few years, the Indian government has succeeded in erecting a fence within its territory and despite the militants using better techniques (such as rubber ladders) and the presence of corruption even amongst those who guard the LoC, the fencing has had significant impact. The Indo-Pak peace process and the ceasefire along the LoC have also made sure there are no militants getting in under the cover of shelling.