President Saparmurat Niyazov's sudden death on December 21 has created conditions for political instability in Turkmenistan. It also sets the stage for a new round of power games in the region that would in essence revolve around battle for control of its energy resources.

Niyazov was considered as one of the most despotic and fickle minded of dictators in the countries of Central Asia - all belonging to the erstwhile Soviet era except in Kyrgyzstan where the President was overthrown by the Tulip Revolution. With only a population of five million and burgeoning revenues from gas sales, Niyazov was able to control dissent and provide for some form of stability in Turkmenistan. However, he did not leave any hierarchical structure for a smooth transition of power.

Turkmenistan rich in hydrocarbon wealth sits on the fourth largest gas deposits in the world and has been referred to as the 'Saudi Arabia' of Central Asia. Its strategic location in Central Asia with access to the Caspian Sea means that it is wooed by the US, Russia, China, European Union and other second tier players like India, Iran and Turkey.

Soviet era political and economic legacies mean that the Turkmen gas industry has been dominated by Gazprom, the Russian behemoth which controls both production and distribution. Owing to the soaring gas demand in Europe and responding to the general world wide trend of the rise in gas prices Niyazov was able to raise the price of Turkmen gas from $65 per 1000 cubic meters (mcm) to $100 mcm in autumn of this year. He granted future leases to Russia from 2009-2012 with provisions for further extension and prospecting in additional areas in October this year. Similarly, earlier in April 2006 he also granted a gas lease to China. All these actions have disappointed the EU and US who are seeking additional gas supplies and want to avoid gas pipelines which pass through Russia. In the gas war some time ago, Russia bared its energy fangs when it squeezed gas supplies to Ukraine and Europe.

US Senator Richard Lugar during NATO's meeting at Riga in end November observed, "We are used to thinking in terms of conventional warfare between nations, but energy could become the weapon of choice for those who possess it". Lugar warned the opening session of the NATO meeting that "it may seem to be a less lethal weapon than military force, but a natural gas-shutdown to a European country in the middle of winter could cause death and economic loss on the scale of a military attack". Access to Turkmen gas remains central to European energy security.

In Central Asia US and European influence has been on the decline since middle of last year after the Andijon events of May 2005 when the US was asked to withdraw its bases from Uzbekistan. Russia and China's influence has been on the rise in contrast. With the death of Niyazov all key players have started jockeying for influence in Ashgabat with the aim of gaining access to gas supplies. They have already started besieging Turkmenistan's capital to asses first hand the shape of things to come. It has also given rise to uncertainty as to whether the dispensation in Turkmenistan will honour gas lease commitments already made.

Turkmenistan under Niyazov had been following isolationist policies and had not joined regional organizations such as the SCO and CSTO. Instead it had prided itself on maintaining strict neutrality between the key players like Russia, China and the US. But what kind of policies the new dispensation would follow, only the coming months will reveal. It is too early to make any predictions.

India has also been expressing keen interest in Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline. Even Niyazov, for the last one year or so of his reign appeared to be quite favourably disposed to the TAPI pipeline proposal. However, because of Chinese and Russian deals for gas leases it was felt that there may not be enough gas for either India or Pakistan. But a statement by Niyazov in early November suggested that there was an additional gas availability of 7 trillion cubic meters that could meet South Asian demands. But this revelation by Niyazov still remains to be confirmed authoritatively as such bold claims have been made earlier too. Another alternative is to connect the TAPI pipeline with gas resources in Uzbekistan to improve its viability.

Niyazov's exit from the scene is likely to become a catalyst for players in Central Asia to secure their interests and India should also embark on securitizing its energy needs in the region with greater vigour. India can not afford to be left behind in the energy race. India has to make concerted efforts to speed up the opening of the North-South Corridor of which Turkmenistan is also a signatory and also seek cooperation with other players of the region that are keen to open energy transportation routes between Central Asia and India.