Chair: Amb Lalit Mansingh
Speaker: Prof. Sumit Ganguly

The seminar attempted to view the Indo-US relationship from varied perspectives along with the landmark events that shaped its contours. The reasons for the Indo-US cooperation not turning into a substantive one during the Cold War were discussed. At present the partnership stands at a turning point and the following three crucial aspects were attributed to it: historical legacy of the relationship and connection with Pakistan; lack of Congressional interest in Indo-US relation; and the stake of the business community.

Amb Lalit Mansingh

Relations between India and the US have to be seen from different perspectives. It is almost 60 yrs since India's independence and what we have witnessed in this relationship is a remarkable turnaround when we look at it from a 6 year perspective. The vision is blurred when one looks at it in totality of the last 60 years. Significantly, President Clinton's visit was the major breakthrough. It was followed by a lot of rhetoric yet at the end of his visit, a vision document was released. Then we had the interim agreement called the Next Steps to a Strategic Partnership (NSSP). This was followed by the landmark 18 July 2005 agreement, which was another breakthrough in relations. Unfortunately only the nuclear deal that followed has been in news. A majority in the Indian Parliament do not favour India getting closer to the US. It is the same in American circles with many bureaucrats against closer relations.

Prof. Sumit Ganguly

Indo- US relations remained restricted during the cold war where the flow of information was restricted. The flow of information was much better after the Cold War. Earlier, around 1963, there was fleeting cooperation. This was essentially restricted to defense and military cooperation as a result of China's invasion of India. This cooperation took place despite Non Alignment that was the focal point of Indian Foreign Policy. A major reason as to why this fleeting cooperation did not turn into something substantial was because of the close proximity that Pakistan enjoyed with the US. Why could the US not override Pakistan's objections for closer relations with India? This was largely because the US wanted Pakistan for reconnaissance flights over the former USSR.

At this juncture we are at a cusp or turning point in relations between both countries. First, in the present scenario, the US has dehypenated the relationship. It does not look to mention India and Pakistan in the same breath. The basis for such a policy came from what economists call 'path dependence' which essentially means the critical choices made by various institutions over a period of time. Pakistan was never considered a loyal ally because it flirted with China since the 1960s while the US did not come close to China until the 1970s. India is questioning the specificity of any threats that Pakistan is facing now, especially in the wake of the $5.1billion aid package and the sale of F-16 planes. The problem is that in the US there is a view point that questions as to why India compares itself with Pakistan. To them, it is a comparison of a giant and a lamb. Yet those who pursue this view are not looking at the military balance between both countries which does not suggest such contrasting comparisons. There is a degree of ignorance in the US functional bureaus as far as South Asia is concerned and this has a huge influence on American Foreign Policy. It tends to focus on the short term perspectives especially with what is happening in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The US needs to understand the peculiar topography of South Asia i.e. the landscape, in a metaphorical sense.

Second, until very recently, till about a decade ago, the Congress was not very interested in South Asia. It did not see any intrinsic interests in South Asia. This is obviously changing now because of certain factors like India's economic growth, developments between India and Pakistan, nuclear issues because of the non proliferation lobby in the US badgering the Congress and making scurrilous claims on India's nuclear program. The Indian community in the US had to make efforts to demolish theories of India's supposed head long plunge in to nuclear weapons production. There was a need to convince them that its defense budget was not threatening anybody. There is much misinformation about the nuclear program that influences the Congress. Finally, the Congress remains unconvinced of the need to give importance to India.

Third, yet there is a degree of hope and this is largely due to the business community. It is sickening to see all this comparison with Sino-US trade because it started reforms a decade earlier than India. The American investments in China even today is miniscule while its investments in India are across a wide range of areas like Biotechnology, Pharmaceuticals, Information Technology, High end Manufacturing, Automotive Products etc. These are critical linkages between India and the US. The Congress is influenced by money and hence listens to the Indo-American Chamber of Commerce which supports the nuclear deal because of the commercial opportunities for it. Thus it's a viable entity that influences and the Congress is influenced by the civil society. One cannot exaggerate the role of the Indian Diaspora although it can be viewed positively. Talking about the nuclear deal, Senator Lugar, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee played a very important role in the deal. Ironically, most of the amendments suggested have come from the Democrats, who have been traditionally considered friendly to India. Every major business school from top down is concentrating on India whether it is the Kellogg's institute of Management or the Columbia school of business. They have opened courses on India. Meanwhile, Indian firms are now hiring Americans and all these constitute fundamental changes to relations between the two countries. This could perhaps be the most powerful engine of growth. The Military to Military relations are also changing as it would have been impossible to imagine 10-15 years earlier the participation of Indian troops in military exercises in Alaska.

Discussion

Question: There have been persistent doubts about President Bush's capability to push the deal through. His ratings domestically are plummeting and there is lot of opposition within the Republican Party and the Congress. Are you confident that Bush can pull through this process? What are the chances of the deal going through before the November Congressional Elections?
Answer: It is a republican dominated Congress and the President desperately needs a foreign policy success. His Middle East Policy is in tatters while his North Korea policy is in trouble. So far as the EU is concerned it needs a lot of improvement. So he badly needs a success and ultimately his party is going to fall in line and support him when the going gets tough.

Question: How much time will it take for the deal to be passed in the Congress? The view in India seems to suggest that it is a cumbersome process. What are the chances for the deal to be passed before the November Congressional Elections?
Answer: India does not loom large in the American domestic perspective. No body will question any senator's support for the deal. The nonproliferation lobby is a significant one but it does not have a very powerful vote bank to influence any major change in direction for American foreign policy. One has to be sanguine about the President's ability to push through the deal. If it was an issue on China or the Middle East or Foreign Investment or the War on Terror which are emotive issues, it could have been in doubt, but the deal is an elitist issue. The Indian Prime Minister was commended for drawing the line. It sent across a clear message to the US. The statement will be read by the decision makers in the US through the media. Infact the lack of awareness about India in the US might be an asset in the passage of the deal.

Question: But Senator Lugar reacted prickly to the Prime Minister drawing the line?
Answer: Senator Lugar has reacted that way as more of a public stance. Ultimately he will also fall in line because as I mentioned earlier the president is desperate for this success.

Question: What happens if India rejects the deal passed by the Congress?
Answer: It can have serious ramifications for the relationship. The deal is a breakthrough and hence if it does not culminate successfully it will be a definite setback for a god relationship.

Question: There are some issues of specific concern in India about the US. Please discuss some of the concerns on an American Convergence on the deal, the perception of India being used as a balancer against China, the Executive-Congressional tussle over lack of information especially in the Iran crisis?
Answer: These are some of the unnecessary anxieties in India. In fact the Senate bills are not legislations but policy briefs which are essentially meant to appease their respective constituencies. One has to wait for the reconciliation process. After the coordination committee clears the bill, the real fight begins on the deal between the administration and the Congress. New Delhi should just watch rather than comment or react on all issues coming out of the US. It should leave aside the window dressing. Some of this is specifically raised to appease domestic constituencies. As far as a balancer to China, yes it is true that a section of the administration wants India as a counter weight to China. The US needs to have concerns about a rising power like China. There are of course political concerns which are present inspite of the economic bonhomie with China. Why does the US not want a more robust military relationship with India? Why not more active collaboration on counter terrorism? Why deal softly with Pakistan? Why is it stymied? This is because it realizes that its relationship with Pakistan is going to be critical because of the Taliban-al Qaeda threat. President Musharraf promises much but has delivered nothing. Why has the London bombings been unearthed just before the F-16 package deal? It seems Washington and New Delhi is blind to the fact that the Pakistan military is more a problem than a solution. There is a need for some sort of civilian rule to be restored now.

Question: Does India have friends in the functional bureaus in the US? What will happen to relations with India after President Bush's term gets over?
Answer: The relationship with India was established much before President Bush was elected. Relations developed positively right from the Kargil days when the US took a dramatic shift towards India during the Clinton administration. Bush has pursued it and added to the relationship. There is a huge momentum in relations despite the bureaucratic inertia. There may be fluctuations here and there but the tide won't go out. Relations will not certainly go back to the pre cold war days.

Question: Can you elaborate on the US policy in Kashmir?
Answer: The US policy has hardly changed in recent times. It is too preoccupied with other global issues. Kashmir for the US is on the back burner. It is hoping that there will be no flare up especially after incidents like the Mumbai attacks.

Question: How will this deal be viewed 5 years down the line? Why is it seen as a break through? There have been agreements on space cooperation, agriculture and knowledge initiatives too, yet why has this deal become the highlight?
Answer: The deal is seen as significant because the Bush administration for the fist time has challenged a fundamental tenet of US policy. It has made a departure from non proliferation policies. It is a good thing according to me because the earlier policy was hypocritical. How this deal will be viewed five years down the line depends on what else will be accomplished if the deal doesn't go through.

Question: Can you discuss the outsourcing concerns in the US?
Answer: Out sourcing was an issue during the last presidential election. It was more an emotive issue which could influence people one way or the other. Actually Outsourcing is not such an important concern because the US is gaining from the fact that the people who it is outsourcing too are buying American products and hence the revenue is coming in to the US.

Question: How close should India get to the US? Should it get really close which risks inviting the wrath of the US enemies or should it not get too close which could mean it might not get any sops that are up for offer from the US?
Answer: What has the Middle East done for India? What has support for the Palestinians given to India? India has to pursue a policy of ruthless pragmatism and this might mean taking some unpopular positions. Why should China have a veto over Indo-US relations? India must pursue a policy made by pragmatic compulsions and not moral sentiments. When diplomatic relations were established with Israel there was no massive outcry domestically in India. Great powers need to make tough decisions. Why does Iran become an electoral issue in India? There is no dissemation of information to the public from the decision makers. This relationship has been initiated by the US and India is only responding to it.

Question: How is the Democratic Party in the US monitoring these foreign policy issues?
Answer: The Democratic Party seems to be in disarray. President Bush's popularity ratings are at its lowest. The Middle East is burning and the Democratic Party has hardly come out with its own policy like a withdrawal of troops within a particular time limit. This is committing political hara-kiri. Domestically, the economic disparities are really high yet why is the criticism from the democrats not vociferous? Issues such as raising minimum wages have also been not pursued. There is basically a lack of policy formulation by the Democrats on domestic and foreign policy issue.