The Bush administration has been touting India as a unique case - a stable, responsible, nuclear-armed democracy with no history of proliferation. And by voting in favor of the bill, the foreign affairs committees in the US Congress have made a one-time exception for "natural partner" India by acknowledging it as a legitimate nuclear power, seeking its strategic support, and helping it meet its enormous energy needs. But, the critics worry that the 'bad example of India' could pop open Pandora's silos as other countries also seek their nuclear option. As Washington moves forward with the "India Deal" and as democratic India emerges at the top of the list as a suitable strategic soul mate, are multiple-digit bilateral trade figures enough to eclipse security concerns? Or are we quite literally rocketing toward an arms race?

President Musharraf has labeled the deal a "major cause of power imbalance" in the region, and Pakistan has aired its resentment by calling it "discriminatory" and demanding a "package deal" for itself. So it is no surprise that after over a decade of vacillation the White House has approved a $5 billion weapons deal with Pakistan-allegedly in a "larger effort to broaden [the United States'] strategic ties" with Islamabad. Beijing and Islamabad have also clinched a $600 million defense arrangement under which China will provide advanced military technology to Pakistan to add "value, accuracy and range" to its arsenal and "prevent conventional military imbalance in Asia." Meanwhile, there has been a distinct thaw in Indo-Pak relations since 2003 with high-level visits, enhanced people-to-people ties and other confidence building measures. Bilateral trade has also seen a modest expansion and the Trade Liberalization Program (TLP) under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) have come into effect while border bickering over Kashmir continues. Nevertheless, the enduring Kashmir dispute remains vital to the health of the India-Pakistan relationship, especially after the recent Mumbai train bombings.

China's rapid rise has compelled Washington to seek strategic cooperation with New Delhi. The Chinese have openly condemned the deal and have long held Washington responsible for pursuing an "encirclement strategy" by cultivating close ties with China's neighbors. Now, several analysts are accusing the Bush administration of drawing India into the encirclement game. Still, Sino-Indian trade continues to expand and China continues to woo India by accelerating bilateral commerce and maintaining a fairly neutral posture on Indo-Pak relations. Sino-Indian hostility may indeed have been sidelined by rapidly rising trade figures, and it surely is in both countries' best interests not to upset the projected 30 billion apple cart, but one cannot ignore the fact that India and China remain regional rivals with a history of conflict, unsettled territorial issues, an immense demand for energy, burgeoning geopolitical ambitions, and a sharp eye on the balance of power in Asia.

As India emerges as the most sought after strategic partner du jour, it must recognize its responsibility on the global chessboard and decide how best to balance the nuclear deal alongside its other global interests. Security partnerships in Asia are entering an extraordinary era of realignment as the hyphen leaves the India-Pakistan relationship and settles into India-China. The maturing Sino-Indian bond is an encouraging signal predicating stability in Asia, but it should not be seen as a zero-sum game for Indo-Pak relations. Additionally, the trade template of the Sino-Japanese relationship may be far more robust than its political dimension; but Japan is aware of the possibility that the Chinese economy would surpass its own in the not too distant future, thereby creating a different set of regional dynamics.

Regional economic integration and growing bilateral trade figures may work in the short term to fuel economic growth and build capacity, but in the long run, as energy supplies dwindle, India, Pakistan, China and Japan must appreciate that the peaceful balance of power in Asia depends on how they manage their interactions but also their global interests. In the near term, a relationship of mutual cooperation and stability is crucial to attracting foreign investment and sustaining economic growth.

The Indo-US nuclear deal, if sanctioned by the Congress, may undermine the NPT temporarily, but despite the timing of Kim Jong-Il's appalling Fourth of July fireworks display, it will not irreparably harm nonproliferation efforts. It has, however, thrust upon India the responsibility of demonstrating nuclear restraint; following a nonproliferation policy from outside the NPT; and most importantly, ensuring stability in its neighborhood.

The views expressed in this commentary are those of the author and not necessarily the views of the Mansfield Foundation.