The successful third round of talks between the People's Consultative Group (PCG), comprising of mediators handpicked by the ULFA, and the Central Government has paved the way for direct talks between the banned outfit and the Government. The Government has shown its keenness to hold direct talks instead of talking via the media or a third party. There is no point in delaying these talks as the sooner the ULFA leadership meets with the Government the less are the chances of any unexpected delay coming in the way. The militant outfit should also make their stand clear as the people are tired of the ensuing terror in the state. The Assamese people are eagerly waiting for a positive outcome of the peace process.

The PCG has agreed to impress upon the ULFA to restrain from any kind of violence in the interest of creating a positive environment for the talks. They could also ensure that the militant outfit does not declare any pre-conditions before the talks and remains satisfied with the knowledge that the Government is willing to discuss all issues for the sake of peace in the state.

The Ministry of Home Affairs has taken an appropriate step in examining all possibilities before considering the release of the five detained rebel leaders. It is also possible that, after their release, the leaders may escape to Bangladesh or go underground. One of them, Pranati Deka who had been released on bail in 1998, was arrested while trying to escape to Bangladesh in 2003. The outfit's poor past records suggest that it cannot be trusted. It could have all its demands met and still resist the peace process.

The ULFA is not a strong group any more. It has lost the support of Assamese society, political organisations, students and even that of the media. Whatever little support it has in remote areas is borne purely out of fear. In order to make its presence felt it engages in violence in the state. The question that needs to be examined is whether the ULFA is the true representative of the people of Assam.

Another key factor which needs to be examined is the influence of Pakistan's ISI, as well Bangladesh's Director General Field Intelligence (DGFI,) over the ULFA leadership based in Dhaka. There is a possibility that the ISI-DGFI team could attempt to sabotage talks between the ULFA and the Government. It appears that there is already a difference of opinion among the top leaders of the outfit, which could then be exploited by the ISI and the DGFI.

Both the intelligence agencies mentioned above, in spite of international pressure, are providing protection to the ULFA leaders. As per my assessment, as long as these leaders are tied in with the ISI and DGFI it will be most difficult for the peace process to move ahead in a positive direction. Dhaka would, from time to time, carry out cosmetic exercises of raiding less important insurgent groups. Recently Bangladesh handed over eight persons belonging to the National Liberation Front of Tripura. The ULFA or NSCN, which have camps inside Bangladesh, have never been touched. It could use these groups to its own advantage.

The onus for maintaining peace in the State lies with the ULFA and not with the government. It is surprising that the outfit appears, on the one hand, to be in a hurry to talk peace with the Central Government but, on the other hand, continues with purposeless violence. The militant group will probably propose a cease-fire pact, which will be advantageous to the ULFA, and both sides will have to abide by the ground rules thus framed.

In case the PCG wants the Government to keep promises made during the third round of talks, the militant outfit should not indulge in acts of violence in the state. A peaceful solution cannot be achieved through violence. It is only through political dialogue that a solution to the insurgency in Assam can emerge. The Government will have to proceed cautiously as there other insurgent groups watching from the side lines. Any wrong step may set a precedent for these other groups.

The ULFA has been insisting that the issue of sovereignty should be the core issue for talks though the Prime Minister has assured that the Government is ready to discuss all issues, without specifying any single issue. To formulate a mutually agreed upon starting point, within the framework of the Constitution, might prove to be a delicate task. The Government clearly has the upper hand at this stage. The ULFA has lost ground and legitimacy at the popular level and this could pose a significant hurdle for them. One should not be too optimistic yet one should remain hopeful. The next couple of months are very crucial for the peace talks as they will determine the direction of the peace process.