North Korea has repositioned itself in the global limelight following reports asserting its intent to test an intercontinental ballistic missile. The US, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand have given official warnings to Pyongyang against any long-range missile tests, and have urged North Korea to abide by its self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile launches. However, the missile launch is already set to take place and the resulting political chain-reaction will pull in every major player in the region.

North Korea's last major test launch was in August 1998 when it fired a Taepodong-I missile over Japan, into the Pacific Ocean. The following year, Pyongyang agreed to a moratorium on long-range missile testing. Although the moratorium has been upheld, events over the past weeks have led the international intelligence community to believe quite conclusively that Kim Jong-Il no longer feels bound to it. US, Japanese and South Korean intelligence assets monitoring North Korea have acquired substantial evidence that preparations are in the advanced stages to launch a long-range missile, the Taepodong-II, from the Musudan-ri test site in North Korea's North Hamgyong Province.

The Taepodong-II is an intercontinental liquid propellant ballistic missile with a range estimated to be between 6,000 and 9,000 km, sufficient to reach Okinawa in Japan, Guam, and possibly even the continental US. According to intelligence gathered from satellite images, the missile has already been assembled and judging from photos showing tens of fuel tanks at the launch site, is already being supplied with fuel. Fueling is one of the final preparations for a missile launch and it has been noted by security analysts that it is unlikely North Korea will abandon the test once the missile is fueled because of the danger and difficulty inherent in siphoning the fuel out. Furthermore, reports indicate that booster rockets have been loaded onto the launch pad. By almost all accounts, the Taepodong II will be launched very soon.

The North Korean missile launch would violate the Pyongyang Declaration signed between Japan and North Korea in 2002. The agreement included a pledge to freeze indefinitely tests of missiles capable of reaching Japan. In Tokyo, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said that Japan and South Korea are trying to avert a launch. "Even now, we hope that they will not do this," Mr. Koizumi stated. "But if they ignore our views and launch a missile, then the Japanese government, consulting with the United States, would have to respond harshly." Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso reiterated this point saying that Tokyo has already passed the necessary bills and is ready to impose sanctions against Pyongyang in case the missile was fired. He also affirmed that Japan would not immediately resort to arms if North Korea fires a missile, but will immediately seek a meeting of the United Nations Security Council following a launch, more than likely resulting in further UN sanctions against North Korea. Japan might also step up financing and efforts for ballistic missile defenses, and would likely push initiatives to acquire offensive weapons, perhaps even reconsider its nuclear weapons policy in a serious effort to bolster its national deterrence.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated that "It would be a very serious matter, and indeed a provocative act should North Korea decide to launch that missile…We will obviously consult [with allies] on next steps, but I can assure everyone that it will be taken with utmost seriousness." The White House has refused to say what action the US might take if the missile is launched, but the severity of the situation can be seen in the Pentagon's activation of its new US ground-based interceptor missile defense system.

China, for its part, would be pulled into the escalating tensions looking to stabilize regional friction, which is surely in its political and economic interests. China could also wield its growing might and influence to put more pressure on Kim Jong-Il, playing a significant part in alleviating the crisis and further establishing its role as a major player in international affairs. Such a maneuver would also strengthen China's relationship with Japan, the US and South Korea, providing China with more leverage to pursue its own national policies and interests in the region.

The international community's concern over the missile test comes amid stalled six-party talks trying to persuade North Korea's leadership to abandon its nuclear arms program in exchange for technology and trade benefits. North Korea has refused to return to the six-party talks until the US removes sanctions it imposed over allegations of money laundering and counterfeiting by North Korean companies. Analysts and officials have proposed that North Korea may be using the missile launch to try to break the deadlock, or as a bargaining chip in negotiations. With worldwide attention having been focused on Iran, however, Kim Jong-Il may just want to remind the world that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is still a force they need to appease, and that its 'Dear Leader' is still a star who can steal the show.