The results of the recent Assembly elections in Assam have sprung many a surprise. The Tarun Gogoi-led Congress has stormed back to power, forming a coalition government with the support of the Bodo People's Progressive Front BPPF (Hagrama). The Congress has emerged as the single largest party with 53 seats in the 126-member state Assembly, while its pre-poll ally, the BPPF (Hagrama) has managed to wrest 11 seats. The AGP won 24 seats, while the Prafulla Mahanta-led AGP (Progressive) managed to secure only a single seat. The BJP and the newly-formed AUDF (Assam United Democratic Front) secured 10 seats apiece in the elections. The CPI (M) won two seats, while the CPI won a solitary seat. The NCP and the ASDC (Autonomous State Demand Committee) won a seat each. Chief minister Tarun Gogoi is the first incumbent to retain power since 1972. Two other aspirants for the coveted post of chief minister, APCC (Assam Pradesh Congress Committee) President Bhubaneshwar Kalita and senior leader Devananda Konwar lost the elections this time, which made it easy for Tarun Gogoi to reclaim the chief minister's post.

A very important development is the inclusion of the BPPF (H) MLA's in the new ministry. The BPPF (H) has three ministers in the present ministry. Hagrama Mahilary is a former chairman of the militant outfit Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT), which renounced violence in December 2003. The support of the BPPF (H) has allowed the Congress to spurn the offer of support from the perfume-tycoon Badruddin Ajmal's AUDF, which is seen as a communal party catering to the interests of the 'illegal' Bangladeshis. The AUDF, however, managed to eat into the vote share of the Congress in many immigrant-dominated areas, which is one of the main reasons for the total number of seats bagged by the Congress coming down from 70 in the last assembly polls to 53 this time. In terms of the vote-share, the Congress managed to win 31.08 per cent of the vote, the AGP 20.39 per cent, the BPPF(H) 3.72 per cent, the BJP 11.98 per cent, the AUDF 9.03 per cent, while the remaining parties like CPI, CPI(M), ASDC, NCP and independents brought up the rest of the pack. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) managed to improve its tally from the 20 seats it had won in the last polls in 2001, and the same goes for BJP, which got 10 seats this time as compared to the eight seats it secured in the last Assembly polls.

The AGP, led by Brindaban Goswami, fared very poorly in the polls. There were conflicting signals from the AGP to the populace as regards its stand on the crucial immigration issue. The fact that the AGP was toying with the idea of joining hands with Badruddin Ajmal's AUDF did not go down well with the Assamese Hindu voters, who form the AGP's main vote bank. The fact that the party, which had been formed to evict the illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, now seemed to be getting close to the AUDF cost the AGP dearly. Also, the bickering with the Prafulla Mahanta led AGP (P) led to a division of the votes. The AGP refused to tie-up with the BJP this time after their bitter honeymoon in 2001, but the tie-up would have helped the two parties upstage the Congress. A good aspect of the elections is that it has been largely peaceful this time with the various militant groups not interfering with the poll process. However, just before the declaration of the poll results, suspected ULFA militants seriously injured the AGP candidate from the Amguri constituency Pradeep Hazarika on 9 May 2006. Pradeep Hazarika later won the elections.

The Congress-led government has many important tasks in hand. The Centre-PCG (People's Consultative Group) talks to resolve the ULFA issue are at a crucial stage. Another worrying development is that the ceasefire agreement with the dreaded NDFB (National Democratic Front of Bodoland) expires on 31 May 2006. The government has still not invited the NDFB leaders for talks and there is a genuine fear that if the ceasefire agreement is not extended and the top leaders are not invited for talks, they could go back to guns once more. The illegal migrants' issue is also a crucial one. Unemployment is also another major issue that needs to be addressed. Corruption has debilitated Assam's society. The power scenario is also very bad. Proper attention needs to be given to the construction of good roads. The development of infrastructure is essential if Assam is to turn round the corner. The conflict between the Karbis and Dimasas, which led to gruesome ethnic clashes in Karbi Anglong last year, is a powder-keg waiting to explode. Only time will tell whether the situation in Assam will improve or worsen.