Implications of The Unfolding Situation in Nepal

01 May, 2006    ·   2001

Arun Sahgal elucidates the tasks ahead in shaping a better future for Nepal


As the euphoria of Nepal's revolution wears thin, the main players - the SPA and Maoists - need to address hard realities. They will now have to come together to create new democratic forces and structures attuned to the aspirations of the people of Nepal, who have struggled to do away with the repressive monarchical system.

As the new government under Girja Prasad Koirala gets down to work, one of the first issues that it will need to contend with is the elections to the Constituent Assembly as the first step toward drafting a new Constitution. The main issue that arises here is on the manner of elections and the charter of the Constituent Assembly. Will it be a national referendum or proper elections in which all parties will have a say and voice their views. Second, will it be a one-point agenda to change the existing monarchical system to a republican order or will it contain a road map to a constitutional change.

Given the prevailing circumstances, there are obvious differences between the SPA and Maoists and to a degree within the SPA itself. It needs to be mentioned that the 12-point agreement was at best an outline plan whose details were never addressed.

The second issue is the conduct of elections itself and the role of the security forces. There are already different opinions being expressed on this issue. In India, politburo member of the CPI (M), Sitaram Yechury, pointed out to the ability of the Nepalese government to manage the elections without international supervision. He clearly underscored the Indian government's concerns on the issue.

Another related and important issue is the role of security forces in the peaceful conduct of elections. Clearly, the police and armed police forces of Nepal are inadequate for the task. Here, the role of the RNA will be critical. The RNA chief, General Pyarjang Thapa, heeded to political reality and decided to support the new government. However, the Maoists are demanding disbandment of the RNA and raising a new national army and would like the elections to be overseen by neutral forces like the UN or SAARC. This will have its own ramifications for India, which will have to carefully consider Nepal electoral process.

The entire process of Constituent Assembly elections, drafting of the new Constitution and its adoption is a time consuming and can take anything up to a year. This has many political connotations. First is the representation of the various political parties and the Maoists in the constitutional drafting mechanism. In India's case, the drafting of the Constitution was done based on proportional representation of political parties as they existed then. But, what procedures will be followed in Nepal?

Will this representation be based on the number of votes poled in favour of each political party or a representative drafting team created after the elections. The main sticking point is going to be of how to induct the CPN (Maoist) cadres into the political system and their relative representation. This needs to be seen in the backdrop of the ideological construct of the Maoists as it wants constitutional democracy to be one step in the ultimate creation of a socialist republican order in Nepal.

Thus, a great deal of political accommodation between the Maoists and SPA will be required. Furthermore, the role of the civil society that has been particularly vociferous in restoration of democracy struggle and it is the real architect of this victory. Given this perspective, Nepal has still to contend with a great period of uncertainty and coping up with diverse demands of political stakeholders. This will be compounded by the fact that till such time a new Constitution is adopted, the old 1990 Constitution and the dreaded article 127 will remain in force. This article is unacceptable to the Maoists, who are already demanding its immediate abrogation.

It is also important to focus upon the future role of the RNA. Any attempts to disband or downsize it are fraught with danger and will be akin to replicating the mistakes made by the US in Iraq. A disgruntled and abandoned RNA hounded by the Maoists cadres will create a guerrilla force. Such a mistake must be avoided at all costs. Similarly, across the board retributions against the RNA cadres for their past excesses are likely to prove counter-productive.

Lastly, the issue of usurpation of strategic space in Nepal by inimical forces has to be addressed. India will have no reason to grudge close economic and trade linkages between Nepal and China; however, any attempts at forging closer security relationships will transgress Indian security interests. Nepal will also need to show similar concerns to Indian sensitivity vis-à-vis proliferation of madrasas in the Terai belt, together with cross-border linkages between the Maoists and Indian Naxal groups, which according to Indian intelligent sources are more robust and deep than mere ideology.

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